博通的估值具有吸引力，预计到2028年可实现80%的总回报，支撑看多逻辑。
逐段跳播
本月名单上的第二只股票是Broadcom，如果你关注这个频道有一段时间了，你会知道这是我长期持有在投资组合中的一只股票，多年来我一直在持续追加资金。
The second stock on this month's list is Broadcom, and if you've been following the channel for a while, you know that this is a stock I've held in my portfolio for a long time, and I've continued to add capital over the years.
有趣的是，如果你看看我在Broadcom上的持仓增长，你会看到按我的平均成本基础计算，我获得了超过180%的利润，但在我最初买入的股票上，我获得了超过500%的利润，可能高达600%。但我继续向这个仓位追加新的资金。
What is interesting is that if you look at my position in Broadcom's growth, you can see that I made a profit of over 180% on my average cost basis , but on my original shares, I made a profit of over 500%, possibly as high as 600%.
But I continued to add new capital to this center.
为什么会这样？嗯，人们总是倾向于看到一只股价大幅上涨的股票，就自动认为其估值也一定很贵。但重要的是要记住，股价和估值完全不是一回事。
Why is this the case? Well, the tendency is always to look at a stock that has seen a significant increase in its share price and automatically assume that the valuation must also be expensive.
But it is important to remember that stock price and valuation are not the same thing at all .
所以，尽管这只股票在过去五年上涨了586%，看看市盈率发生了什么变化。它现在接近过去三年来的最低水平，当然也是过去一年来的最低水平。
So, even though this stock has risen 586% in the last five years, take a look at what has happened to the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. It is now close to its lowest level in the past three years , and certainly at its lowest level in just the past year.
这是我朋友Arya提供的一张很棒的图表。看看这个。我们用红色表示的是Broadcom的市盈率，蓝色表示的是这家公司一直实现的营收增长率。你注意到了什么？营收增长显著加速，但市盈率也大幅下降。上一次市盈率处于这一水平时，营收增长要低得多。
This is a great graph from my friend Arya. Take a look at this. What we are looking at in red is Broadcom's price-to-earnings ratio, and what is in blue are the revenue growth rates that this company has been achieving.
What do you notice? Revenue growth has accelerated significantly, but the price-to-earnings ratio has also fallen significantly. The last time this price-to-earnings ratio was traded, revenue growth was much lower.
现在，回顾一下，Broadcom有两个主要业务板块。我们有半导体解决方案，然后我们有基础设施软件。两者都以非常强劲的速度增长。基础设施软件是一层具有重复性性质的业务，类似于订阅式商业模式。
但其增长惊人，同比约为29%。然后是半导体解决方案，同比增长127%。这实际上是大部分营收的来源。
Now, to recap, we have two main business sectors for Broadcom. We have semiconductor solutions , and then we have infrastructure software . Both are growing at very strong rates.
Infrastructure software is a layer of business that is repetitive in nature, similar to a subscription business model. But the growth was astonishing, at around 29% year-on-year.
Then semiconductor solutions, which rose by 127% year-on-year. This is where the bulk of the revenue actually comes from.
请记住，从历史上看，他们的大部分增长是通过收购实现的，但他们一直非常盈利。所以，归根结底，关于Broadcom的论点是，在当前价格下估值看起来很有意思。
Keep in mind that, historically, much of their growth has come through acquisitions, but they have been very profitable. So, ultimately, the argument about Broadcom is that the valuation looks interesting at current prices.
为什么会这样？他们的CEO最近给了我们一些非常精彩的见解。他表示：“我们有望在2028财年实现每股收益超过30美元。”
Why is this the case? Well, their CEO recently gave us some amazing insights. He stated, "We are on track to exceed $30 in earnings per share in fiscal year 2028."
所以，让我们记住这个数字，并简单地对其进行敏感性分析。我们在这里向上走，输入Broadcom的数据。我们所做的只是根据对未来盈利增长的预期，以及我们认为它们将交易的未来市盈率，来预测未来的回报。
请记住，在这个情景中，我们使用的是过去十二个月的盈利倍数。
So, let's keep this number in mind and simply perform a sensitivity analysis of it. We will go up here and enter Broadcom data. All we do is forecast future returns based on expectations of future earnings growth and based on the future price-to-earnings ratio that we believe they will trade at.
Keep in mind that we are using the earnings multiple for the past twelve months in this scenario.
那么，分析师预期什么样的增长？我们可以看到，2028年每股收益的平均预测为30.51美元。这与CEO陈福阳所指引的完全一致。到2030年，每股收益的预计复合年增长率约为43.51%。
So, what kind of growth do analysts expect? Well, we can see that the average earnings per share forecast for 2028 is $30.51. This is in complete line with what Hock Tan, the CEO, is directing .
The projected compound annual growth rate for earnings per share through 2030 is approximately 43.51%.
所以，让我们开始摆弄这些数字，看看基于分析师预测和CEO指引的未来回报会是什么样子。让我们先摆弄一下这些数字。现在，如果他们的盈利到2028年增长60%，那么到2028年，这将使他们达到每股约30美元，正如管理层所指示的那样。
即使我们看到市盈率大幅下降，也许市盈率下降一半，你仍然可以看到，即使在这些价格下，未来的回报也会看起来非常有吸引力。
So, let's start playing with these numbers and see what future returns look like based on analyst forecasts and CEO guidance . Let's play with the numbers for a moment. Now, if their earnings grow by 60% through 2028, that puts them at around $30 per share by 2028, as management has indicated.
Even if we see a sharp decline in the price-to-earnings ratio, and perhaps the ratio drops by half, you can still see that future returns will look very attractive even at those prices.
所以，即使倍数继续收缩，Broadcom的市盈率继续下降，即使在这些价格下，Broadcom也可能是一个非常合理的选择。
So, even if the multiple continues to shrink, and Broadcom's price-to-earnings ratio continues to fall, even at these prices, Broadcom might make a very reasonable choice.
预计到2028年，总回报将达到约80%。然而，现实情况是，这也不包括股息。这只股票的股息支付指标和增长记录在历史上非常有吸引力。初始股息率很低，但这只股票在真正意义上正在增长其股息。
10年分派的平均复合年增长率为26%。5年分派的平均复合年增长率超过11%。2015年的股息为16美分。但现在已超过2.42美元。因此，这是一个惊人的10年股息增长，这当然得到了自由现金流增长的支持。
Total returns are projected to reach approximately 80% by 2028. However, the reality is that this does not include dividends either. The dividend payout metrics and growth record for this stock are historically very attractive.
The initial dividend yield is low, but this stock is growing its dividends in the truest sense of the word. The average compound annual growth rate of distributions over 10 years is 26%.
The average compound annual growth rate of distributions over 5 years exceeds 11%. The dividends in 2015 were 16 cents. But now it exceeds $2.42. Therefore, it is an amazing 10-year dividend growth, which is of course supported by free cash flow growth.
自由现金流以巨大的速度增长。随着这些增长预期持续，几乎毫无疑问，我们将在未来看到分派继续以两位数的速度增长。再次强调，这是一个股票看起来便宜的情景，因为盈利增长前景如此强劲，正如我们在标普500指数中看到的那样。
Broadcom股票要在当前价格下表现不佳，需要盈利增长出现急剧放缓。
Free cash flow has grown at an enormous rate. With these growth expectations continuing, there is almost no doubt that we will see distributions continue to grow at double-digit rates in the future.
Again, this is a scenario where the stock looks cheap because earnings growth prospects are so strong, just as we see for the S&P 500. It would take a dramatic slowdown in earnings growth for Broadcom stock not to perform well at current prices.
很明显，我们将在短期内看到高水平的波动性。但从长期来看，股价跟随盈利增长。完全透明地说，这是我在个人投资组合中增加了更多资金的一只股票。
It is clear that we will see a high level of volatility in the short term. But in the long run, stock prices follow earnings growth. To be perfectly transparent, this is a stock to which I have added more capital in my personal investment portfolio.
观察点
这个频道对 $AVGO 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。