波音的生产中断与认证延迟拖累了自由现金流，尽管订单充足，该股仍面临困难。
逐段跳播
尽管彭博社报道称美国联邦航空管理局可能推迟 737 Max 10 的认证，波音股价今天仍在上涨。在可能影响交易的软件故障的消息传开后，该股昨天已下跌约 7%。
Boeing's stock is rising today despite a Bloomberg report that the Federal Aviation Administration may delay certification of the 737 Max 10. The stock had fallen by approximately 7% yesterday after news spread of a software glitch that could affect trading.
过去 24 小时我们谈了很多关于波音的话题，Kevin，现在我想听听你对这只股票的看法，以及它在最新消息下表现如何。
We've talked a lot about Boeing over the past 24 hours, Kevin, and now I want to hear your take on the stock and how it's behaving in light of the latest news.
是的，波音股价在昨天大幅下跌后今天略有回升。这主要归因于美国联邦航空管理局的一份声明，声明称：“今天飞行的飞机是安全的，该故障不影响飞机操控。”
Yes, Boeing's stock saw a slight recovery today after a sharp decline yesterday. This is mainly due to a statement from the Federal Aviation Administration, which said: "Aircraft flying today are safe, and the malfunction does not affect aircraft control."
在我看来，这是问题的关键部分。是的，这是通过通用电气航空航天部门暴露出来的问题，美国联邦航空管理局推迟了 737 Max 的认证，但许多分析师和专家都在谈论此事，并讨论可能只需几周时间就能清理软件并重新获得认证或重回正轨。
This, in my opinion, is a key part of the issue. Yes, this is a problem that emerged through General Electric Aerospace, and the Federal Aviation Administration has delayed the certification of the 737 Max, but many analysts and experts are talking about it and discussing that it may only take a few weeks to clean up the software and be re-certified or get back on track.
所以，这不是好消息。毫无疑问：如果你是波音的投资者，这不是你在新闻中想看到的东西。尽管这家公司正努力通过销售和交付飞机、改善资产负债表和现金流来恢复盈利并实现复苏，但这不是你昨天想从波音那里听到的消息。
So, it's not good news. There is no doubt about it: if you are an investor in Boeing, this is not what you are looking for in the news. While this company is trying hard to return to profitability and recover by selling and delivering aircraft, and improving its balance sheet and cash flows, this is not what you wanted to hear from Boeing yesterday.
所以，情况可能没有最初想的那么糟，这让人略感宽慰，但肯定不算好，Nicole 和 Tom。这是一只很难评的股票，因为它是一家伟大的美国公司，人们喜爱它，我们的国家安全也依赖它，但它是那种极易受新闻头条影响的公司的之一。
So, there is some relief that it may not be as bad as initially thought, but it is certainly not good, Nicole and Tom. It's a difficult name, because it's a great American company that people love and that our national security depends on, but it's one of those companies that is very affected by headlines.
日复一日，年复一年，我们在这个问题上已经研究了很多年，许多新闻头条影响了它的股价，但它曾达到 254 的最高点，现在则在 188。
Day after day, year after year, we've been working on this for many years, and many headlines have affected its stock price, but it reached its highest point at 254, and it's now at 188.
Tom，你怎么看波音？是的，如你所知，我认为生产受到的干扰更多，我认为这将是决定性因素。他们正试图达到每月生产 47 架飞机的目标，但目前并未实现。
Tom, what do you think of Boeing? Yes, as you know, I think there are more disruptions to production, and I think that will be a decisive factor. They are trying to reach their target of producing 47 aircraft per month, but they are not currently achieving it.
所以，这些干扰对他们的自由现金流预期产生了负面影响，不是吗？他们最近在一次行业会议上做了更新，表示本财年的自由现金流仍在 10 亿美元至 30 亿美元之间。
So, these disruptions negatively affect their expectations for free cash flow, don't they? They recently gave an update at an industry conference, stating that their free cash flow is still between $1 billion and $3 billion for this fiscal year.
该公司表示，鉴于这些干扰——无论是与 737 Max 的认证有关，还是与部分发动机停飞的 787 Dreamliner 有关——它不太可能实现 20 亿美元。
The company is unlikely to achieve $2 billion, it has stated, given these disruptions, whether related to the certification of the 737 Max or the 787 Dreamliner with some of its engines grounded.
但该公司拥有长达七年的未交付飞机订单，价值近 7150 亿美元。
But the company has seven years' worth of unfulfilled aircraft orders, valued at nearly $715 billion.
所以，是的，他们有订单，不是吗？他们只需要改善执行力，但这就是波音的问题所在；他们有时会失手，如你所知，看看一些评论就知道了。
So, yes, they have the orders, don't they? All they need is to improve execution, but that's Boeing's problem; they sometimes stumble, and as you know, look at some of the comments.
但看看他们近期的订单。土耳其航空订购了 150 架飞机，大韩航空宣布订购 103 架飞机。然后我们再看 Oksana Airlines，那家印度航空公司。他们有 183 架波音 Max 飞机的未交付订单，可能还会再订购 200 架。
but look at their recent orders. Turkish Airlines has ordered 150 aircraft, and Korean Air has announced orders for 103 aircraft. Then we look at Oksana Airlines, the Indian airline.
They have outstanding orders for 183 Boeing Max aircraft, and may order another 200.
曾有一个条件是，中国将订购超过此前与政府宣布的 200 架飞机，但在总统访问期间这并未发生。这可能会给股价带来压力，该股昨天触及了近十个月来的最低水平。
There was a condition that China would order more than the 200 aircraft they had previously announced with the administration, but that did not happen during the president's visit.
This may put pressure on the stock price, which yesterday reached its lowest level in almost ten months.
因此，我认为投资者仍在试图理解这一局面，他们需要提高产量和自由现金流，以实现未来两年 100 亿美元的目标。他们继续按照所有标准运营，美国联邦航空管理局正在密切合作，试图解决这个问题。
还记得他们遇到的舱门问题。他们面临许多问题，但凭借新的领导层等，他们克服了这些问题。
Therefore, I believe that investors are still trying to understand the situation, and they need to increase production and free cash flow to achieve their goal of $10 billion over the next two years.
They continue to operate in accordance with all standards, and the Federal Aviation Administration is working closely to try to resolve the issue. Remember the door problem they encountered.
They faced many problems, but they overcame them thanks to new leadership and so on.
如果你认为这只股票在价格低时是好的买入机会，并且你对Boeing的长期前景持乐观看法，那么你可以考虑这样的交易。
If you believe this stock is a good buy when its price is low, and you have a positive long-term outlook on Boeing, then you can consider a deal like this.
正如我提到的，如果这是一笔在10月30日到期的试探性交易，那你就有一整月的时间来解决这些问题。如果你认为需要更长时间，你可以延长这个日期，但我看了截至10月30日的预期走势，大约在17美元。
我缩短了这个区间，卖出了一个垂直买入期权，报价约为15美元。我在190买入了看涨期权，并在205卖出了看涨期权。
As I mentioned, if this is a trial deal that ends on October 30, that gives you a full month to get through these problems. If you think it will take longer, you can extend this date, but I looked at the projected movement up to October 30, and it was around $17.
I shortened this range and sold a vertical buy option with an offer of approximately $15. I bought the call option at 190, and I sold the call option at 205.
正如我提到的，两者都在10月30日到期。该股定价约为5.30美元，现在交易价格低于5美元。因此，该股略有下跌。价格已经上涨，今天仍然更高，但由于整体市场下跌，没有之前那么高；不过，这是一种特定的风险策略。
As I mentioned, both expire on October 30th. The stock was priced at around $5.30, and is now trading at less than $5. Therefore, the stock declined slightly. The price has risen, and is still higher today, but not as high as before due to the overall market decline; however, this is a specific risk strategy.
最大可能亏损就是你支付的金额。如果你支付530，亏损将是530美元。如果你支付约5美元，亏损最多为5美元。唯一真正的风险，也是唯一需要你关注的时候，是价格落在两个执行价之间，对吧？
此外，你预期上涨到205美元，这几乎是你资金的三倍，也就是从5美元到15美元。然而，风险在于持续下跌，记住这是一种多头垂直买入策略。
The maximum possible loss is the amount paid. If you pay 530, the loss will be $530. If you pay around $5, the loss will be a maximum of $5. The only real risk, and the only time you should pay attention, is if the price falls between the two strike prices, right?
In addition, you are expecting a rise to $205, which would be almost three times your capital, i.e., from $5 to $15. However, the risk lies in the continued decline, and remember that this is a long vertical buying strategy.
让我们分析一下这个策略。这些是10月30日到期的月度期权。我认为这是这里的一个关键因素，因为你可以用平台查到该公司将在本月28日公布财报。这可能是价格上涨的一个推动因素，但在Kevin的看涨策略中你大约有31天，他在10月30日以190的价格买入周度看涨期权，并以205的价格卖出看涨期权，价格区间为15美元，并支付约530美元作为权利金，正如Kevin所说。
Let's analyze this strategy. These are monthly options with a date of October 30th. I think this is a key factor here, as you can use a platform to find out that the company will announce its earnings on the 28th of the month.
This may be an incentive for a price increase, but you have about 31 days in Kevin's bullish strategy, where he buys the weekly call option for October 30, at a price of 190, and sells the call option at a price of 205, within a price range of $15, and pays about $530 as a credit value, as Kevin stated.
股价现在很可能低于5美元，所以你可以拿到略便宜的价格。但支付Kevin的债权会有风险。因此，如果支付530美元的权利金，支付530美元会把盈亏平衡点提高到195.30美元。所以，按百分比计算，在股价约为188美元的情况下，这个金额并不大，而且这笔交易你有31天。
我认为这就是基础。在这样的交易中冒一的风险去获得额外两的利润。因此，风险回报比不错。秘诀在于你需要一波上涨才能进入195.30美元以上的盈利区，这是这笔交易的盈亏平衡点。所以，如果你相信这只股票在未来一个月会上涨，垂直看涨买入策略就相当清楚了。
The stock price is likely to be less than five dollars right now, so you can get a slightly cheaper price. But paying Kevin's creditor would be risky. Therefore, paying $530 would raise the breakeven point to $195.30 if a credit value of $530 is paid.
So, as a percentage, and with the stock trading at around $188, the amount isn't huge, and you have 31 days in this deal. I think this is the basis. Risking one to achieve an additional profit of two in a deal like this.
Therefore, the risk-to-reward ratio is good. The secret is that you need an upward move to reach the profitability zone above 195.30, which is the breakeven point for this trade.
So, it's quite clear in the vertical bullish buying strategy if you believe this stock will rise over the next month.
Kevin，我用了一个我们通常不在这里讨论的策略，但它给了我一个很好的宽区间。这是一个有点看跌的策略，但你并不希望价格跌太多。所以，这些是中性到略微看跌的交易。我直接看了Condor策略。
它们全都是看跌期权。我选择了一个10月16日的月度期权，距离到期日还有17天。我在190买入了一个看跌期权，这略有盈利。我在185卖出了一个看跌期权，我在180卖出了一个看跌期权，然后我在175买入了一个看跌期权。
Kevin, I used a strategy that we don't usually talk about here, but it gives me a good wide range. It's a somewhat bearish strategy, but you don't want the price to fall too much.
So, these are sort of trades that are neutral to slightly bearish. I looked directly at the Condor strategy. All of them are put options. I chose a monthly option on October 16, which is 17 days until the expiry date.
I bought one of the put options at 190, which is slightly profitable. I sold one put option at 185, I sold one put option at 180, and then I bought one put option at 175.
所以，一个5美元宽的看跌condor策略支付约1.35美元作为折价。这是之前的交易价格。你可能为此多付10美分。但是，如果你为这笔交易支付1.35美元作为折价，那就是你的风险。
每份价差1.35美元，盈亏平衡点在188.65。你希望价格低于这个水平，然后高于176.35。所以，你有这个区间。它更像是卖出铁鹰策略，但同时在卖出期权这一侧它只是condor策略，Kevin。
我在180和185的卖出执行价之间寻找最大盈利，但你有一个很棒的宽区间，Kevin。就风险回报比而言，这是一个不错的设置，因为你每份期权只冒约135美元的风险。
So, a $5 wide bearish condor strategy pays out about $1.35 as a discount. This is the previous trading price. You may pay an extra 10 cents for that. However, if you pay $1.35 as a discount for this deal, that's your risk.
$1.35 per spread with the breakeven point at 188.65. You want the price to be lower than that, then higher than 176.35. So, you have this range. It's more like a short iron condor strategy, but at the same time it's just a condor strategy on the sell options side, Kevin.
I'm looking for maximum profitability between short execution prices of 180 and 185, but you have a great wide range, Kevin. This is a good setup in terms of risk-to-reward ratio, as you risk only about $135 per option.
是的，“卖出Condor”策略与“铁鹰”策略不同。“铁鹰”策略由两个卖出期权组成。“卖出condor”策略是一个买入期权和一个卖出期权。它更接近“蝶式”策略，而不是卖出“铁鹰”策略，因为你买入一个并卖出另一个，但你为自己设定了一个价格区间，而180到185之间的这个区间就是最大盈利。
如你所知，支付的金额就是风险，所以要注意在两个执行价之间入场。这是一个看跌策略，寻找180到185之间的价格波动。
Yes, the "Selling Condor" strategy is different from the "Iron Condor" strategy. The "Iron Condor" strategy consists of two short options. The "selling condor" strategy is a long option and a short option.
It is closer to the “butterfly” strategy than to the short “iron condor” strategy, because you buy one and sell the other, but you set a price range for yourself, and this range between 180 and 185 is the maximum profit.
As you know, the amount paid is the risk, so be careful about entering between the two execution prices. This is a bearish strategy looking for a price movement between 180 and 185.
是的，随着你接近到期日，价格会开始上涨，就像Kevin提到的“蝶式”策略一样。所以，这是Nicole的略微看跌的“Condor”策略，以及Kevin在Boeing的看涨“垂直期权”策略。
Yes, the price will start to rise as you get closer to the expiration date, just like the "butterfly" strategy that Kevin mentioned. So, this is Nicole's slightly bearish "Condor" strategy, and Kevin's bullish "vertical option" strategy at Boeing.
这个频道对 $BA 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。