阿里巴巴的内在价值必须下调；该公司六年来未能实现增长，仍是一家零售商，当前估值无法由AI前景所支撑。
逐段跳播
阿里巴巴公布了财报。股价对此作出反应。在过去一两年里，它涨跌很大，但我们必须看看内在价值是多少，如何调整，市盈率是多少，投资的风险和回报是什么。
Alibaba reported earnings. It's the stock reacted. It goes up and down a lot in the last year or two, but we have to see how is the intrinsic value, how to adjust that, the P ratio, what is the risk and reward of investing.
他们宣布发行100亿美元的股票。盈利，如果我们看盈利，比如说，“好吧，增长9%，电商增长4%，云增长45%，AI增长16%。”
They have announced 10 billion [snorts] dollars issuance of shares. Earnings, if we look at earnings, if you say, "Okay, 9% growth, e-commerce 4% growth, cloud 45% growth, AI 16% growth."
然后我稍微看一下现金流。经营活动产生30亿美元，资本支出90亿美元，导致负65亿美元。削减股票回购。之前是600亿美元的现金，现在降到300亿美元。回购被削减。巨额资本支出用于发展AI。
Then I look a little bit at the cash flows. 3 billion from operating activities, 9 billion CAPEX leading to 6 and 1/2 billion negative. Cut the share repurchases. The cash that was 60 billion a while ago is going down to 30 billion. Repurchases cut. Huge capital expenditures to grow into AI.
我稍微看一下收入，那里有一些具体情况，但我感兴趣的是这个，我们稍后会谈到。国际电商增长1%，与过去承诺的相比微不足道。
I look a little bit at revenue, some specific situations there, but what I'm interested is this, and we'll catch on this later. International e-commerce 1% growth, which is nothing compared to what was promised in the past.
然后我再看远一点。一切都关于云计算服务，目标是在几年内翻倍。我可以告诉你这一点。AI，好吧。然后我进入我的价值投资情境。我看盈利，每股收益与过去相比，在高投资下有所下降。
Then I look a little bit further. It's all about cloud compute services targeting doubling in a few years. I can give you that. AI, okay. Then I get to my value investing situation. I look at the earnings, earnings per share going down compared to the past on the high investments.
现在的问题是，“那么，用什么作为估值输入来得到阿里巴巴的内在价值？”嗯，我看上一财年的现金，经营活动提供110亿美元，花费170亿美元。这意味着负现金流。好吧，这主要是为了增长，但我必须根据当前情况稍微调整一下。
And now the question is, "Then, what to use as a valuation input to get intrinsic value of Alibaba?" Well, I looked at the cash for the previous fiscal year, 11 billion provided by operating activities, 17 billion dollars spent. That means negative cash flows. Okay, this is mostly for growth, but I have to adjust it a little bit to the current situation.
它仍然稳定，本季度和2025年第一季度的现金流没有太大差异，但我看的是2026财年股东净利润，抱歉，150亿美元。
It was still stable, not much difference there in the cash flows in the this quarter and the first quarter of 2025, but I'm looking at this net income to shareholders fiscal 2026, sorry, 15 billion.
我稍微看一下他们在增长不佳的情况下烧钱的情况，他们在烧钱。所以，我在想，过去电商创造200亿美元，然后降到150亿。现在，如果我看电商在投资下创造了什么，我们处于100亿。然后他们在那些AI事情上花费更多。所以，我必须稍微调整一下。
I'm looking a little bit as what they are burning at the not that great growth and they are burning money. So, I'm thinking about I used to be 20 billion that the e-commerce was creating, then it went to 15. Now, if I look at what e-commerce is creating with the investments, we are at 10. And then they are spending more at those AI things. So, I have to adjust things a little bit.
100亿的创造，现金价值创造，市值2830亿，这是一个很大的市盈率。那是市值的3.5%。这意味着每股收益是4，让我们说某种所有者收益。
10 billion creation, value creation in cash, market cap 283, that's a big P ratio. That's 3.5% of the market capitalization. That means that earnings per share are four, let's say some kind of owner's earnings.
我稍微看一下总权益，1630亿，与市值相比。这不是几年前我们买的2000亿，那时全是回购和股息，不是AI。另一个情况是，阿里巴巴在过去6年里没有兑现承诺。
I look a little bit at total equity, 163 billion compared to the market cap. It's not the 200 billion we bought big a few years ago and then it was all about buybacks and dividends, not AI. Another situation is that Alibaba hasn't delivered in the last 6 years.
这就是查理·芒格说的，它仍然是一个该死的零售商。因为我看了2021年的投资者日，20亿消费者，那里有巨大的增长，用户增长加上钱包份额扩张，价值创造，国际是那里的重要讨论。我们现在有什么？
现在，我们高度确信云AI会增长。增长的承诺，深度芯片，甚至半导体。这是阿里巴巴完全转向他们几年前承诺的东西，但仍然是承诺。在那种情况下，我不想为承诺买单。
And that's what Charlie Munger said, it's still a god damn retailer. Because I looked at the investor day 2021, 2 billion consumers, huge growth there, user growth plus share of wallet expansion, value creation, international was big discussions there. What do we have now? Now, we have highly confident that cloud AI will grow. Promises of growth, deep chips, even semiconductors now. That's Alibaba completely shifting to what they were promising a few years ago, but it's still promises. I don't want to pay for promises in that situation.
因此，我必须重新评估阿里巴巴。现在，我过去认为阿里巴巴每股收益为七，增长率为10%，终端市盈率倍数，且接近内在价值。现在我将这一情况改为四。我将保持增长率和市盈率不变，而内在价值为股价的一半。
Therefore, I have to revalue Alibaba. And here we have it. Alibaba, I used to have here I think seven earnings per share, but 10% growth rate terminal multiple P ratio and that it was close to intrinsic value. I'm changing that to four for the situation. Okay, I'm going to leave the growth rate the P ratio and intrinsic value is half of the stock price.
现在，他们需要大幅增长并获得更高的市盈率来证明这一点。安全边际，也许不是33，我会尝试将其设为60，当它们再次达到账面价值时，这将是一个安全边际。因此，我将在这里设为45、45和10。
Now, they need to grow really big and higher P ratio to justify this. The margin of safety, perhaps not at 33. I will put try to put it here at 60 would be a margin of safety when they reach again the book value. Therefore, I'll put here 45 45 and 10.
所以，我们离值得关注的情况还远，但也不算太远，但我必须重新定价，因为它是一家该死的零售商。五年过去了，什么也没发生。
So, we are still far from not that far from let's say something to look at, but it is something that I have to reprice because it is a goddamn retailer. 5 years nothing happened.
好的，我们寻找更好的情况，我不会押注于人工智能。
Okay, we look for better situations and I'm not going to bet on AI.
这个频道对 $BABA 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。