BKNG 被低估；由于业务复杂性，AI 去中介化风险被高估，而股票回购与 15% 的 EPS 增长目标支撑看多逻辑。
逐段跳播
Booking Holdings 正经历有史以来最好的年份之一，这主要归功于 AI，但也要归功于伊朗战争。该股已下跌超过 20%。但回购收益率超过 8.5%，我今年抓住机会将自己在 Booking Holdings 的持仓翻倍。
它目前约占我投资组合的 20%，是我的第二大持仓。
Booking Holdings is having one of its best years ever thanks mostly to AI, but also because of the war in Iran. The stock is down by over 20%. But the buyback yield is over 8.5%, and I have taken the opportunity this year to double my position in Booking Holdings.
It is today around 20% of my portfolio, my second-largest holding.
我为什么要感谢 AI？因为你可能没有机会以这么好的价格买入 Booking Holdings。再说一次，作为投资者，能以这么好的价格买到这么好的公司是很罕见的。
Why am I thanking AI? Because you may not have the opportunity to buy Booking Holdings at such a good price. Again, it’s rare as an investor to have such a great company at such a great price.
我认为市场对 Booking Holdings 和 AI 的看法大错特错。当然，风险是真实存在的，但我们必须能够量化它。不要仅仅因为 Meta Muse 就说 Booking Holdings 应该在一个月内下跌 20%。
I believe that the market is very wrong about Booking Holdings and AI. Of course, the risk is real, but we have to be able to quantify it. Don’t just say that Booking Holdings should be down 20% in a month just because of Meta Muse.
管理层有一个目标。它叫做 8-8-15 框架。他们的目标是，长期来看，总预订量每年增长 8%，长期而言。然后收入每年增长 8%，每股收益增长 15%。
The management has a goal. It’s called the 8-8-15 framework. They have the goal that, over the long term, they are going to grow gross bookings by 8% annually, long term. And then they are going to grow revenues by 8% annually and earnings per share by 15%.
如果你看到每股收益每年增长 15%，如果他们能实现这一点，我们可以说 Booking Holdings 的内在价值大致会每年增长 15%。但我相信它甚至可能超过这个数字。不过 15% 已经是很棒的回报了。长期回报优于长期市场平均回报。
If you see earnings per share growing by 15% annually, if they can achieve this, we can say that more or less the intrinsic value of Booking Holdings is going to grow by 15% annually.
But I believe that it can even be more than that. But 15% is a great return. Long-term returns are better than long-term average market returns.
但这有多大可能？仅仅因为管理层抛出一个数字，并不意味着他们就有可能实现它。我们听过一些 CEO 给出的数字看起来相当大，他们因此获得了万亿美元的估值，但当然，他们极不可能实现这种增长。
但对 Booking Holdings 来说，这相当简单。
But how possible is this? Just because management put a number out there doesn’t mean it is possible that they should be able to achieve it. We have heard numbers from some CEOs that look quite big, and they’re getting trillion dollars of valuations based on this, but of course, very unlikely that they are going to achieve this type of growth. But for Booking Holdings, it’s quite simple.
那 Booking Holdings 呢？要让他们的总预订量增长 8%，我们需要三个百分点。我们从哪里得到？更多人会在网上预订。假设我们把一到两个百分点放在线上，再放一个百分点仅仅给 Booking Holdings，让他们获得更大的市场份额。这样你就已经得到 8% 了。
What about Booking Holdings? For them to get gross bookings to grow by 8%, we need three percentage points. Where can we get that? More people are going to be booking online. Let’s say we put one to two percentage points for online, and we put one more percentage point just for Booking Holdings, for them to get bigger market share. So you already get the 8%.
而且我们已经非常保守了。我们可以超过 8%。让我们更保守一点，就说只有 6%。即使收入只增长 6%，我相信 Booking Holdings 仍然被低估。
And we are being very conservative. We can get past 8%. Let’s be even more conservative and let’s say just 6%. Even with just 6% growth in revenues, I believe Booking Holdings is still undervalued.
如果公司认为总预订量和收入将以相同的速度增长，这意味着他们将保持相同的抽成率。而这正是目前华尔街的担忧之一。华尔街认为，由于 AI，抽成率将会下降。
If the company believes that gross bookings and revenues are going to grow at the same rate, it means that they are going to keep the same take rate. And this is one of the fears of Wall Street at the moment.
Wall Street believes that the take rate is going to go down because of AI.
我们几分钟后会详细讨论这一点，为什么我认为这不会发生。但抽成率长期来看一直相当稳定，略高于 14%。通常，Booking Holdings 从酒店抽取 15% 的佣金。这是他们的费用。
但为什么是 14%？因为有营销推广。如果他们向客户付费让他们去住酒店，那就是没有酒店贡献的冲减收入。租车和机票的抽成率低于酒店。这就是为什么是 14%。
We will talk about that in a few minutes in detail, why I don’t think it is going to happen. But the take rate has been fairly consistent long term, a little above 14%. Usually, Booking Holdings takes a 15% cut from the hotels.
This is their fee. But why 14%? Because there’s merchandising. If they are going to pay customers for them to go to the hotel, it’s contra-revenue without contribution from the hotel.
Car rentals and flights have lower take rates compared to hotels. That’s why it is 14%.
但抽成率可能会因为他们的金融科技业务而略有上升，现在大部分支付都通过他们自己的平台进行。但大致上，我相信它会保持在大致相同的水平。我认为公司也这么认为。这就是为什么他们告诉我们，收入和总预订量长期都将增长 8%。
But the take rate can slightly increase because of their fintech business, where most of the payment now is going through their own platform. But more or less, I believe it is going to stay around the same.
And I think the company also believes that. That’s why they tell us that revenues and gross bookings are going to both grow at 8% long term.
我们现在如何达到每股收益 15%？这意味着利润率应该会改善，我相信这可以发生。但公司每股收益增长能超过收入的最大原因，是流通股数量在下降。
How do we get to 15% now of earnings per share? It means that the margins should be improving, and I believe it can happen. But the biggest effect, why the company can grow its earnings per share bigger than revenues, is because the number of shares outstanding is going down.
市场并不真正理解如何给 Booking Holdings 估值。他们看每股收益。这很重要，是的，但这不是 Booking Holdings 的真实盈利。自由现金流更好。
The market doesn’t really understand how to value Booking Holdings. They look at earnings per share. It is important, yes, but this is not the true earnings of Booking Holdings. Free cash flow is better.
我怎么说明这一点？我不是凭空说的。你只需要看看过去十年。Booking Holdings 能够向股东返还多少钱？大约是 600 亿美元，主要用于回购，但最近也有分红。那自由现金流呢？
差不多同样的数字。所以他们能够把所有自由现金流返还给所有者。
And how do I tell this? I’m not telling this out of nowhere. You just need to look at the last decade. How much money has Booking Holdings been able to return to shareholders? It is around $60 billion, mostly for buybacks, but lately also dividends.
What about the free cash flow? About the same number. So they are able to return all their free cash flow to owners.
这不是一家需要大量资本来增长、来运营的公司。他们能够产生比净利润更多的现金流，仅仅是因为他们拥有的商户业务模式。
This is not a company that requires much capital to grow, to operate. They are able to generate more cash flows compared to net income just because of the merchant business model that they have.
最初是代理模式。你在 Booking Holdings 上预订，然后他们给酒店发一张发票，他们会收到一笔佣金。但现在是商户模式。他们是先收到钱的人。所以他们能保留现金。如果我今天付款，两个月后才去酒店，他们就能保留这笔现金两个月。
他们只在我退房几周后才付钱给酒店。在此期间，他们赚取利息，并且可以用这笔现金用于运营。
Initially, it was agency. You book on Booking Holdings, then they send the hotel an invoice, and they are going to be paid a commission. But now it’s merchant. They are the ones to be paid first.
So they get to keep the cash. If I pay today and I’m going to the hotel in two months, they get to keep the cash for two months. They are going to pay the hotel only a few weeks after I check out.
In the meantime, they earn interest on that, and they can use that cash for operations.
因为这是一家拥有如此良好资产负债表的公司，他们还能以优惠利率借钱。这就是为什么你看公司的资产负债表，股东权益是负的。他们回购了太多股票。
Because it is such a business with such a good balance sheet, they can also borrow money at good rates. That’s why you look at the balance sheet of the company, the equity is negative. They have repurchased so many shares.
大多数时候，当你看到负股东权益，意味着公司负债过多，这在 Booking Holdings 的情况下是事实。但这笔负债，属于商户的钱，叫做商户预订。实际上，它只是现金。它在为业务产生收入。
Most of the time, when you look at negative equity, it means a company has too many liabilities, which is true in the case of Booking Holdings. But this liability, the money belonging to the merchants, it’s called merchant bookings.
In reality, it is just cash. It is generating income for the business.
这就像保险浮存金。当然，我们不能把它 100% 比作保险浮存金。Booking Holdings 并不能真正用它来投资证券。
It is like insurance float. Of course, we cannot compare it 100% to insurance float. Booking Holdings cannot really use that to invest in securities.
我在关于Booking Holdings的投资论点中谈得更详细。我上周发布了它，所以不需要太多更新。我通常不会发布我的投资论点，但我想稍微与众不同一点。所以我把所有内容都发在了我的通讯上。
你们可以去看。它完全免费，仅此一次，针对Booking Holdings。
I have talked in more detail in my thesis of Booking Holdings. I posted it last week, so it doesn’t need so much update. I usually don’t post my thesis, but I wanted to be a little different.
So I posted everything on my newsletter. You can check it out. It’s completely for free, just for this once with Booking Holdings.
假设Booking Holdings每年可以回购4%的股份。现在，我们说回购收益率是8%。但我们取4%，这实际上低于长期平均水平，因为疫情它甚至跌得更低。
So let’s say Booking Holdings can repurchase 4% of shares annually. Right now, we say that the buyback yield is 8%. But let’s take 4%, which is below the long-term average, actually, because of the pandemic it even fell lower than that.
如果我们把它加到我们最初看到的8%上，我们已经得到12%的每股收益增长，但他们仍然有15%。但我们是非常保守的。
If we add that to the 8% we looked at initially, we already get 12% growth of earnings per share, but they still have 15%. But we are being very conservative.
我相信那15%——即使我们假设12%，别看15%——即使我们假设12%，在当前价格下，Booking Holdings被低估了，在我看来。
I believe that the 15%—even if we assume 12%, don’t look at the 15%—even if we assume 12%, at the current price, Booking Holdings is undervalued, according to me.
现在让我们谈谈AI风险。这是市场认为的一大风险。让我们忘掉战争。我们已经谈过了。AI风险是Booking Holdings将被去中介化。人们将使用AI代理来预订酒店。这是AI公司展示的头号事情，他们的代理如何运作。
Now let’s talk about the AI risk. This is what the market believes is a big risk. Let’s forget the war. We already talked about it. The AI risk is that Booking Holdings is going to be disintermediated.
People are going to be using AI agents to book hotels. This is the number one thing that the AI companies show, how their agents can operate.
你可以预订酒店，因为预订酒店很复杂。这就是为什么他们想向你展示，用他们的AI代理，这很容易。但为什么复杂？因为涉及这么多参与者，不同的参与者。不只是你和酒店。首先，酒店需要一个系统来知道是否有空房。
他们需要一种让你付款的方式。也许他们接受信用卡，但你没有。你住在一个人们不太使用信用卡的国家，但你需要一种付款方式。这就是为什么像Booking Holdings这样的公司存在。这不仅仅是为了供需。
Okay, you can book hotels because booking hotels is complicated. That’s why they want to show you that, with their AI agent, it is easy. But why is it complicated? Because there are so many players, different players involved.
It’s not just you and the hotel. First, the hotel needs a system to know if there are rooms available. They need a way for you to pay. Maybe they accept credit cards, but you don’t have one.
You live in a country where people don’t use credit cards that much, but you need a way to pay. That’s why companies like Booking Holdings exist. It’s not just for the supply and demand.
现在，它们能被去中介化吗？是的，有可能。但大多数人仍然会使用Booking Holdings，因为它是如此分散，如此复杂。
Now, can they be disintermediated? Yes, there is the possibility. But most people are still going to be using Booking Holdings because it is so fragmented, so complex.
如果，比如说，只有10家酒店，10个酒店品牌，那么是的，每个人都可以直接接入Muse或其他什么，他们就能获得直接访问。这会很容易。
If, let’s say, there were only 10 hotels, 10 brands of hotels, then yes, everyone can just plug into Muse or whatever, and they are going to get direct access. It’s going to be easy.
但全球有数十万家酒店，其中大多数是独立的。Booking Holdings上不到10%的房源实际上由大型酒店公司拥有。
But there are hundreds of thousands of hotels worldwide, and most of them are independent. Less than 10% of the listings on Booking Holdings are actually owned by the big hotel firms.
而且这不仅仅是预订一个房间。也许你想要一个能看到海景的房间。你想要更好的，山景。我不知道你想要什么。AI代理无法做到这一点。你想要评论。你想知道那个特定房间，它的评论是什么？
And it’s more than just booking a room. Maybe you want a room that gets you the view of the sea. You want something better, the views of the mountain. I don’t know what you want.
The AI agent will not be able to do that. You want the reviews. You want to know that particular room, what are the reviews for that?
你在Booking Holdings上得到一切。你得到图片和一切。AI代理无法为你做到这一点。这非常非常难。除非你真的不在乎，只是想去某个地方出差，那么也许它能行。但对大多数人来说不行。
You get everything on Booking Holdings. You get pictures and everything. The AI agent will not be able to do that for you. It’s very, very hard. Unless you don’t really care and you just want to go somewhere for business, then maybe it can work. But not for most people.
大多数人把旅行当作一件重要的事。你有10个孩子。你需要找到九个房间。两个是双胞胎，他们睡在一起。AI代理将如何处理这个？也许Booking Holdings。他们已经在将AI融入业务中，这将帮助你。但你需要有数据。
Most people do something as travel. It is something important. You have 10 children. You need to find nine rooms. Two are twins, they sleep together. How is the AI agent going to take care of that?
Maybe Booking Holdings. They’re already incorporating AI into the business that is going to help you. But you need to have the data.
Muse AI或其他Claude和其他东西，他们没有数据，除非他们去偷。但即使他们偷了，他们为普通人预订酒店所使用的计算量如此巨大，对他们来说在经济上不合理。
The Muse AI or the other Claude and other things, they don’t have the data unless they are going to steal it. But even if they steal it, the amount of compute they are going to use for the average person to just book hotels is so enormous that it doesn’t make economic sense for them.
可能它会被商品化。可能在某个时候他们会盈利。我不知道。对普通人来说，这永远是一门亏损的生意，而做像预订酒店这样复杂的事情，如果他们真的想盈利，就不值得，
Probably it’s going to get commoditized. Probably at some point they’re going to be profitable. I don’t know. It’s going to be a losing business always for the average person, and to do complicated things such as booking hotels, it’s not worth it if they actually want to be profitable,
实际上，我相信AI对Booking Holdings来说可以是一个机会，因为在我们听说GPT之前，他们已经在AI上投入了这么多。
Actually, I believe that AI can be an opportunity for Booking Holdings because they have been investing so much in AI before we heard about GPT.
我听了2017年以来的所有财报电话会议。管理层很久以前就一直在谈论AI，如何将AI融入业务。它已经在客户支持上为他们省钱。
I listened to all the earnings calls from 2017. The management has been talking about AI a long time ago, how to incorporate AI into the business. It is already saving them money on customer support.
但他们可以使用AI来降低成本。而且他们做过调查，发现人们并不真的在乎在紧急情况下获得帮助是来自AI还是来自人，只要它有用。
But they can use AI in order to lower their cost. And they have done surveys to see that people don’t really care whether they are getting help in an emergency, whether it comes from AI or from a person, as long as it is useful.
当然，到了某个时候，也许这对 AI 来说太复杂了，你需要一个人来协助你。
Of course, at some point, maybe it is too complicated for the AI and you will need a person to assist you.
但假设你是在 Muse AI 上预订的，结果出了问题。你觉得 Meta 会帮你吗？你觉得在 Meta 有谁可以让你打电话去寻求帮助吗？
But let’s say you booked on Muse AI, you get a problem. Do you think Meta is going to help you? Do you think there’s someone you can call at Meta to help you on that?
事实上，我正在加大对 Booking Holdings 的投资。我相信它被低估了。我相信它的内在价值每年都能增长。
As it is, I’m investing more in Booking Holdings. I believe it is undervalued. I believe that every year the intrinsic value can grow.
由于股票回购，每股内在价值的增长会更快。另外，如果利率上升，人们会担心旅游行业下滑。但由于浮存金的存在，我实际上认为高利率对 Booking Holdings 的部分业务来说可能是件好事。
The intrinsic value per share will grow faster because of the share repurchases. And also, if interest rates rise, people are scared about the travel industry going down. But because of the float, I actually believe that high interest rates can be a good thing for part of the business of Booking Holdings.
观察点
这个频道对 $BKNG 的历次判断
Ishfaaq Peerally 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。