Celsius在跟踪的股票中提供最高的潜在回报；即使保守的基本情景预测（10%营收增长，14%净利率）也意味着20%以上的复合年增长率。
逐段跳播
当我可以买像 Celsius 这样的股票，远期市盈率 25 倍，两年远期 14 倍，对吧，而且长期增长前景好得多。
when I could buy something like a Celsius at a 25 forward in a two-year forward at 14, right, with much better long-term growth prospects.
我正在关注的股票是 Celsius，代码 CELH，即 Celsius Holdings。关于 Celsius，情况是这样的：根据我对该公司未来几年业绩的预测，这可能是目前我追踪的所有股票中回报前景最好的股票。
如果我的看涨情景成真，该股的年复合增长率应该在 30% 到 40% 左右。而且我认为我的预测数字并不离谱。到 2030 年，我预计其营收将达到 57 亿美元，净利润为 8800 万美元。
我认为这对 Celsius 来说并不疯狂。在看涨情景假设下，净利润率为 14%。
So, the stock I'm looking at, Celsius, C E LH, on this one, Celsius Holdings. Uh, so here's the deal with Celsius, right? This is the stock that has the probably the best return profile of any stock I track right now. If based upon where my projections are for this company over the next several years, if we look at my bull case for Celsius, this stock should have a compounding annual growth rate if this comes true, my bull case, right, of you know 30 to 40%. Somewhere in that ballpark range, right? And I don't think that my numbers are crazy. In 2030, I had them getting to 5.7 billion of revenue, right? And $88 million of net income. I don't think that's crazy numbers for Celsius at all. Right, under a bulk case assumption, net income margins of 14%.
我们稍后会讨论净利润率。我认为这并不疯狂。而要达到这样的数字，那是个大数字。如果看我的基准情景，这只是表达我实际预期的另一种说法。我的基准情景显示，2027 年至 2030 年，他们每年仅实现 10% 的营收增长。
10% 的增长率，他们拥有三个品牌：Celsius、Alani 和 Rockstar。你想想国际分销，随着时间推移更好的销售，更多的分销点，然后偶尔可以提价。而平均只有 10%。
那是相当保守的预测，非常保守。所以到 2030 年，我预计 Celsius 的营收仅达到 48 亿美元。我预计其净利润不到 7 亿美元，净利润率为 14%。你猜怎么着？如果这种情景成真，该股的年复合增长率仍能达到 20% 以上。
那很厉害。而且这还没有考虑他们收购其他品牌或进行回购的情况。我的意思是，那太不可思议了，绝对不可思议。
We'll talk about net income margins in just a moment. I don't think that's crazy. And to return that sort of number, that's it's big dog number, right? If we look at my base case, just a fancy way of saying what I actually expect. My base case has them only doing listen to this 10% revenue growth per year 2027 through 2030. 10% that they own three brands, Celsius, Alani, and Rockstar. And you think about international distribution, right? We think about better sell through as time ticks on, more distribution points, and then you can go up on price every once in a while. And only 10% on average. That's a pretty modest projection there. Like pretty darn modest. So in 2030, I have Celsius only getting to $4.8 billion of revenue. S I have him getting to less than $700 million in net income. and net income margins of 14%. And guess what? If that baby scenario plays out, that baby scenario, this stock still gives me a competent annual growth rate deep in the 20s. That's big, man. And once again, that doesn't factor in if they buy any other brands. That doesn't factor in if they do buybacks. I mean, that's incredible, right? Absolutely incredible.
我圈出了这个数字，净利润率，因为我预计他们在 2030 年两种情景下的净利润率都只有 14%。我认为这非常重要，因为这里我们看的是 thousandx.com 的比较功能。我想调出 Monster 和可口可乐的数据，它们的净利润率分别是 23% 和 28%。
而我预计 Celsius 在 2030 年作为一家更成熟的公司，净利润率只有 14%。想象一下，如果 Celsius 的净利润率达到 18%、19% 或 20% 左右，你能想象如果它们接近那个水平，Celsius 将带来怎样的回报吗？
顺便说一句，我家房子外部正在施工，所以我很抱歉，但请想一想。我的看涨情景甚至没有接近那个水平。如果他们的净利润率达到 20%，甚至 18% 或 22%，你要明白该股未来几年的年化回报率可能达到 50%。那是疯狂的数字，对吧？
Now, I circled this number right here, net income margins, because I have them only doing 14% net income margins in 2030 uh in both scenarios, and I think this is really important because here we're looking at thousandx.com compare feature, right? And I want to pull up Monster and Coca-Cola, right? Their net income margins at those companies 23% and 28%. And I have Celsius in 2030 as a much more mature company at only 14%. Imagine Celsius gets their net income margins to 18%. 19% 20% somewhere in line. Can you imagine the returns Celsius is going to provide if they get even remotely close to that? By the way, I got a lot of construction going on on the exterior of my house right now. So, I do apologize, but think about that for a moment. My my bullish scenario doesn't even have that even close. If they get to a 20% income margin or even 18% or or 22%. Like you got to understand the upside for the stock is likely a 50% kaggar per year over the next several years. That's crazy numbers, right?
这很巨大。Celsius 只做饮料，就像可口可乐和 Monster 一样。所以如果你考虑长期净利润率，Celsius 长期可能接近 20%，对吧？Celsius，我们刚刚谈过这个。
It's huge. Celsius is drink only just like Coca-Cola, just like Monster is. And so if you're thinking about long-term net income margins, you know, Celsius could push toward 20 as a long term, right? Celsius, we just spoke about that one.
所以，如果考虑这些，我认为 Celsius 的回报潜力最大。
So, if I think about these, I think Celsius has the biggest reward potential.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $CELH 的历次判断
Financial Education 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。