Financial Education 对 $CELH 的判断变化
Celsius，最富有的。看看今天Celsius股票在公共账户上上涨了11000美元。祝贺所有最近一直在购买Celsius股票的人。现在这个账户上有57000美元。
Celsius, the wealthiest. Look at this stock running up $11,000 here today on Celsius stock in the public account. Congratulations to everybody that's been out there kind of acquiring some shares recently in regards to Celsius stock. Now $57,000 on this one.
这只股票非常强劲。不到三周前，每个人都放弃了这只股票，对吧？看看这次走势。不到三周，上涨了48%。这是非同寻常的走势。
This stock is insanely strong. Everyone was giving up on the stock like less than 3 weeks ago, right? And look at this move. In less than 3 weeks, 48%. That's an extraordinary move.
这通常是人们希望在标普100中两三年内获得的涨幅。而它在不到三周内就给了你。
That's a usually a move that people would hope to get in S&P 100 over 2 or 3 years. And it's giving you that in less than 3 weeks.
Celsius，最富有的。Celsius，最富有的，好吗？涨势已经开始了。在我看来，它将继续下去，对吧？所以，我们这里有很多积极因素，好吗？你们没有听说这个消息。这是大约两周前出来的。
Eric Hanson，Celsius Holdings的总裁兼首席运营官，离职了，好吗？这是一个大动作。所以，他们还让这位先生担任北美销售执行副总裁，好吗？他是公司内部人士。
然后他们还让这位先生担任……嗯，他以前是首席客户官，对吧？他被任命为一个新设立的职位，首席业务转型官。所以，听起来他们好像是把Eric Hanson这个老家伙的职责分成了两个独立的角色，对吧？
所以，我认为这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。现在，关于Eric Hanson的另一件奇怪的事情是，他是在2025年初被引进的。所以，基本上他大约持续了一年半，然后就被解雇了。所以，他一定做得不好，对吧？
所以，当你遇到像Celsius这样的情况，数字对投资者来说不够令人兴奋，股价持续下跌，总得有人承担责任。所以，最终是这位担任公司总裁兼首席运营官的Eric Hanson，对吧？
所以，这将给投资者一些信心，即Celsius不怕做出正确的举动，使公司处于最佳位置以向前发展，对吧？
Celsius the wealthiest. Celsius the wealthiest, okay? The run is on. It's going to continue on in my opinion, right? So, we have a lot of positives going on here, okay? You guys didn't hear about this news. This came out about 2 weeks ago. Eric Hanson, Celsius Holdings president, chief operating officer, is out, okay? Now, this was a big move. So, they also made this gentleman the executive vice president of North North American sales, okay? And he's an insider of the company. And then they also made this gentleman the Well, he was the former chief customer officer, right? He was appointed to a newly created role of chief business transformation officer. So, they kind of sounds like they're like dividing up this old guy's role, Eric Hanson, into two separate roles here, right? So, I think it's a step in the right direction. Now, the other thing that was weird about this Eric Hanson is he was brought in in early 2025. So, basically he lasted about a year and a half, roughly, and then he was out. So, he must have been not doing a good job, right? And so, when you have a situation like Celsius where the numbers were not exciting enough to investors and the stock price kept going down, somebody's head's got to roll. And so, it ended up being this Eric Hanson who was a president and chief operating officer of the company, right? And so, that's going to give investors some confidence that Celsius is not afraid to make the right move to put the company in the best position possible to move forward, right?
现在，说到Celsius，目前市值是80亿美元。你必须明白，Celsius在美国能量饮料市场大约占有20%的份额。现在，想想能量饮料类别有多大。你必须对自己说：“如果我能说‘我将拥有美国能量饮料类别大约20%的市场份额’，你会愿意支付什么整体价格？”
我的意思是，那是一个巨大的市场。想想所有的便利店、所有的沃尔玛、食品店、山姆会员店和好市多，所有这些商店都在大量销售能量饮料，对吧？想想所有这些。然后考虑拥有20%的份额会是什么样子。
基本上，每10个去买能量饮料的人中就有2个是从你的公司购买的。这很特别。非常非常特别，对吧？所以，一开始，这听起来就是一个非常被低估的提议，我可以为此付费，对吧？但我们也必须记住，Celsius有很多长期的国际扩张。
Now, when it comes to Celsius, it's a $8 billion market cap as of right now. You got to understand, with Celsius you're getting about 20 per They have a roughly about 20% uh market share in the United States of America for energy drinks. Now, think about how large the energy drink category is. And you got to say to yourself, "What would you pay as just an overall price if you could say, 'I'm going to own 20% roughly of the market share of the energy drink category in the United States. I mean, that's a that's a big, huge market. Like, think about all the convenience stores and all the Walmarts and food stores and the Sam's Club and the Costcos and all these stores that just sell massive amounts of energy drinks, right? And just think about all that for a moment. And then consider what would it be like to own 20%? What What would it What would it be like to to basically sell two out of every 10 uh people that go to buy one is buying from your company. That's special. That is very, very special, right? So, right off the bat, that just sounds like a very undervalued proposition that I could pay that, right? But we also have to remember Celsius has a lot of long-term international expansion.
记住，不仅仅是“哦，我们获得了20%的美国市场份额”，而是“哦，Celsius能否随着时间的推移获得25%、30%的美国市场份额？”然后还有国际，对吧？你知道，那大约是Celsius的11倍，对吧？
Remember, it's not just oh, we're getting 20% US market share, it's about oh, could Celsius grab 25%, 30% USA market share over time? And then international, right? You know, that's roughly what about 11X of what Celsius is, right?
那么，Celsius有可能达到25%的市场份额吗？我的意思是，如果他们在品牌上做得很好，他们很可能达到25%到27%的市场份额，对吧？
So, is it possible that Celsius gets to 25% market share? I mean, if they do a great job with their brands, it's very possible they could get to 25 27% market share, right?
而且那将来自某家公司。我不知道是来自红牛还是怪物，但如果他们达到了，那将来自某家公司，对吧？他们将吞噬那部分市场份额。
And that's going to come out of somebody. I don't know if it's going to come out of Red Bull or if it's going to come out of Monster, but if they get there, it's going to come out of somebody, right? They're going to eat up that market share.
而且Celsius目前在国际上非常小。所以，他们没有那么大的足迹。但是，他们可以随着时间的推移达到那里。所以，要明白，在我看来，像Celsius这样的公司未来还有很长的上涨空间。
而且它可以继续让我们在未来很长一段时间里赚大钱，对吧？
And Celsius is just so small on an international basis right now. So, they don't have that big footprint. But, they can get there over time. So, understand there's a long upside ahead in my opinion for a company like Celsius. And it can continue to make us fortunes of money for a long time to go in the future, right?
现在，这个Rockstar CEO的整个情况会怎样？我们看看会发生什么。那将是短期内的结果。我不知道。也许他们最终会把品牌卖给他。也许他们会让他进入Celsius董事会。我不知道那里会发生什么。但是，你知道，我怀疑他们会……
Now, what happens with this whole Rockstar CEO situation? We'll see what happens with that. That's going to be what that's going to be in the short term. I don't know. Maybe they sell off the brand to him over time. Maybe they let him have a seat on the board of directors of Celsius. Like, I don't know what's going to transpire there. But, you know, I doubt they're going to make
我认为他只是采取了一种他想要什么的策略。我不知道他是否想从他们那里购买Rockstar品牌。我不知道他是否想要一个董事会席位。我认为他实际上可能不想当CEO。这是我个人的看法。我可能对此判断错误。
I think he just kind of took an approach that he wants something. I don't know if he wants to try to buy the Rockstar brand from them. I don't know if he wants a board seat. I don't think he actually probably wants to be CEO. That's my personal opinion. I could be wrong about that.
Celsius，我认为它会继续上涨。这是我在今年年底之前的看法。我认为该股今年年底会高于现在。
Celsius, I think it continues to run. That's my opinion between now and the end of the year. I think the stock exits this year higher than it is now.
当我可以买像 Celsius 这样的股票，远期市盈率 25 倍，两年远期 14 倍，对吧，而且长期增长前景好得多。
when I could buy something like a Celsius at a 25 forward in a two-year forward at 14, right, with much better long-term growth prospects.
我正在关注的股票是 Celsius，代码 CELH，即 Celsius Holdings。关于 Celsius，情况是这样的：根据我对该公司未来几年业绩的预测，这可能是目前我追踪的所有股票中回报前景最好的股票。
如果我的看涨情景成真，该股的年复合增长率应该在 30% 到 40% 左右。而且我认为我的预测数字并不离谱。到 2030 年，我预计其营收将达到 57 亿美元，净利润为 8800 万美元。
我认为这对 Celsius 来说并不疯狂。在看涨情景假设下，净利润率为 14%。
So, the stock I'm looking at, Celsius, C E LH, on this one, Celsius Holdings. Uh, so here's the deal with Celsius, right? This is the stock that has the probably the best return profile of any stock I track right now. If based upon where my projections are for this company over the next several years, if we look at my bull case for Celsius, this stock should have a compounding annual growth rate if this comes true, my bull case, right, of you know 30 to 40%. Somewhere in that ballpark range, right? And I don't think that my numbers are crazy. In 2030, I had them getting to 5.7 billion of revenue, right? And $88 million of net income. I don't think that's crazy numbers for Celsius at all. Right, under a bulk case assumption, net income margins of 14%.
我们稍后会讨论净利润率。我认为这并不疯狂。而要达到这样的数字，那是个大数字。如果看我的基准情景，这只是表达我实际预期的另一种说法。我的基准情景显示，2027 年至 2030 年，他们每年仅实现 10% 的营收增长。
10% 的增长率，他们拥有三个品牌：Celsius、Alani 和 Rockstar。你想想国际分销，随着时间推移更好的销售，更多的分销点，然后偶尔可以提价。而平均只有 10%。
那是相当保守的预测，非常保守。所以到 2030 年，我预计 Celsius 的营收仅达到 48 亿美元。我预计其净利润不到 7 亿美元，净利润率为 14%。你猜怎么着？如果这种情景成真，该股的年复合增长率仍能达到 20% 以上。
那很厉害。而且这还没有考虑他们收购其他品牌或进行回购的情况。我的意思是，那太不可思议了，绝对不可思议。
We'll talk about net income margins in just a moment. I don't think that's crazy. And to return that sort of number, that's it's big dog number, right? If we look at my base case, just a fancy way of saying what I actually expect. My base case has them only doing listen to this 10% revenue growth per year 2027 through 2030. 10% that they own three brands, Celsius, Alani, and Rockstar. And you think about international distribution, right? We think about better sell through as time ticks on, more distribution points, and then you can go up on price every once in a while. And only 10% on average. That's a pretty modest projection there. Like pretty darn modest. So in 2030, I have Celsius only getting to $4.8 billion of revenue. S I have him getting to less than $700 million in net income. and net income margins of 14%. And guess what? If that baby scenario plays out, that baby scenario, this stock still gives me a competent annual growth rate deep in the 20s. That's big, man. And once again, that doesn't factor in if they buy any other brands. That doesn't factor in if they do buybacks. I mean, that's incredible, right? Absolutely incredible.
我圈出了这个数字，净利润率，因为我预计他们在 2030 年两种情景下的净利润率都只有 14%。我认为这非常重要，因为这里我们看的是 thousandx.com 的比较功能。我想调出 Monster 和可口可乐的数据，它们的净利润率分别是 23% 和 28%。
而我预计 Celsius 在 2030 年作为一家更成熟的公司，净利润率只有 14%。想象一下，如果 Celsius 的净利润率达到 18%、19% 或 20% 左右，你能想象如果它们接近那个水平，Celsius 将带来怎样的回报吗？
顺便说一句，我家房子外部正在施工，所以我很抱歉，但请想一想。我的看涨情景甚至没有接近那个水平。如果他们的净利润率达到 20%，甚至 18% 或 22%，你要明白该股未来几年的年化回报率可能达到 50%。那是疯狂的数字，对吧？
Now, I circled this number right here, net income margins, because I have them only doing 14% net income margins in 2030 uh in both scenarios, and I think this is really important because here we're looking at thousandx.com compare feature, right? And I want to pull up Monster and Coca-Cola, right? Their net income margins at those companies 23% and 28%. And I have Celsius in 2030 as a much more mature company at only 14%. Imagine Celsius gets their net income margins to 18%. 19% 20% somewhere in line. Can you imagine the returns Celsius is going to provide if they get even remotely close to that? By the way, I got a lot of construction going on on the exterior of my house right now. So, I do apologize, but think about that for a moment. My my bullish scenario doesn't even have that even close. If they get to a 20% income margin or even 18% or or 22%. Like you got to understand the upside for the stock is likely a 50% kaggar per year over the next several years. That's crazy numbers, right?
这很巨大。Celsius 只做饮料，就像可口可乐和 Monster 一样。所以如果你考虑长期净利润率，Celsius 长期可能接近 20%，对吧？Celsius，我们刚刚谈过这个。
It's huge. Celsius is drink only just like Coca-Cola, just like Monster is. And so if you're thinking about long-term net income margins, you know, Celsius could push toward 20 as a long term, right? Celsius, we just spoke about that one.
所以，如果考虑这些，我认为 Celsius 的回报潜力最大。
So, if I think about these, I think Celsius has the biggest reward potential.