CMCSA 因市盈率偏低、自由现金流收益率较高而被低估；存在估值重估的可能，但需确认每股收益的下滑只是暂时性的。
逐段跳播
今天我要分享的第三只股票是康卡斯特，股票代码 CMCSA。这是另一只表现糟糕的股票。过去 5 年，它下跌了 61%，今年又下跌了 30%。所以，这就是我们在谈论 52 周低点时所说的风险。
这只股票已经连续 5 年处于 52 周低点，你总能不断找到新的低点。但问题是，康卡斯特是不是只是变得便宜得离谱了。
Stock number three I'm going to share today is Comcast, ticker symbol CMCSA. This is another stock that's done terrible. Over the past 5 years, it's down 61% and it's down another 30% this year.
So, that's the risk when we're talking about 52-week lows. This stock has been at a 52-week low for 5 years straight, and you can continually find new lows. But the question is is Comcast just getting stupid cheap.
你可以看到，这家公司实际上有着非常好的股息增长记录，自 2008 年以来连续每年增加派息，不过目前他们已经将近 2 年保持股息不变。你可以看到，过去 10 年，股息增长了 156%。
这是 9.8% 的复合年增长率，过去 5 年则上涨了 40%。即便在过去 3 年股票表现糟糕的时期，增长仍然有 21%。
You can see the company actually has a very good track record of dividend growth, paying since 2008 with consecutive annual increases, although they have kept the dividend flat for nearly 2 years right now.
You can see over the past 10 years, the dividend's grown 156%. That's a 9.8% CAGR, and it's up 40% over the past 5 years. And even over the past 3 years where the stock's been doing terrible, the growth is still 21%.
但这是真正开始变得有趣的部分。它处于历史高位的股息率。前瞻性股息率现在是 6.02%。这是一个重大的异常值。过去 5 年，中位数是 2.89%，过去 10 年是 2.12%。而 6% 的股息率让你不禁想，康卡斯特股票是不是便宜得让人无法忽视。
But this is the part that's getting really interesting. It's at a historically high dividend yield. Forward-looking yield's now 6.02%. This is a major outlier. Over the past 5 years, the median is 2.89% and it was 2.12% over the past 10 years.
And that 6% yield has you wondering if Comcast stock is just too cheap to ignore.
因为这里的情况是，这不是股息被削减的风险，除非他们出于管理层的原因就是想削减它。他们过去 12 个月的自由现金流派息率是 23.1%。2025 年是 22.4%。实际上是在改善。
过去 12 个月的盈利派息率是 42%，2025 年是 24.5%。
Because here's the the this is not a dividend cut risk unless they just want to cut it for management reasons. Their free cash flow payout ratio is 23.1% over the trailing 12 months.
It's 22.4% in 2025. It's actually improving. The earnings payout ratio is 42% over the trailing 12 months, and it was 24.5% in 2025.
然后当我们看盈利时，这只股票的前瞻市盈率是 6.3 倍，过去 12 个月是 7.09 倍。而且每股收益在过去十年里是上升的。尽管过去四个季度，它似乎确实在下降。所以，如果你正在考虑买入这只股票，你应该研究一下这一点，并阅读最新的财报。
你要确保这不是长期的持续下滑，而这始终是这些以超低市盈率交易的價值股的风险。关键始终在于，基本面是否真的在恶化？
And then when we look at earnings, this stock is trading at 6.3 forward-looking P/E ratio, 7.09 over the trailing 12 months. And earnings per share have gone up over the past decade.
Albeit the past four quarters, it does seem to be going down. So, if you're thinking of buying the stock, you should be looking into that and reading the latest earnings report as well.
You want to make sure this is not a long-term continued decline, and that's always the risk with these value stocks that are trading at super cheap P/Es. It's always about are the fundamentals actually declining?
但是，你可以看到这就是风险。每股收益在过去一年里一直在萎缩，但它同时也以过去五年最低的市盈率交易，过去十年最低，追溯到 2007 年也是最低。而 6 倍的市盈率简直是疯狂。这家公司在过去 12 个月产生了 204 亿美元的自由现金流。
204 亿美元。市值是 770 亿美元。它的交易价格是其年度自由现金流的三倍半。这里你可以看到它的股息是 48.6 亿美元。这是过去 12 个月的数据。他们开始回购股票。他们有能力回购股票。仅利息方面，最近也一直在下降。
But, you can see that's the risk. EPS has been shrinking over the past year, but it's also trading at its cheapest P/E ratio over the past five years, cheapest over the past 10 years, cheapest going back to 2007.
And a six P/E ratio is like crazy. This company generated 20.4 billion dollars of free cash flow over the trailing 12 months. 20.4 billion dollars. The market cap is 77 billion dollars.
It is trading at three and a half times their annual free cash flow. Here you can see its dividends 4.86 billion dollars. That's over the trailing 12 months. They started repurchasing shares.
They can afford to repurchase shares. Interest only, that has been going down as well recently though.
现在，康卡斯特以及许多这类股息股，尤其是在 Verizon、AT&T 这样的顶级电信领域，不好的地方在于它们有大量债务。康卡斯特有基础设施那一块业务，宽带，他们为此使用债务。我的意思是，你能理解他们如何证明其合理性，因为那是非常可靠的订阅收入，但他们一直在偿还这些债务，净债务已降至 820 亿美元。
这是最新一个季度的数据。它曾达到 1070 亿美元的峰值。他们还一直在剥离部分有线电视资产，这很可能是一个好举措，并可能使他们在未来以更高的倍数交易。
Now, the bad thing with Comcast and a lot of these dividend stocks and especially in the top telecom space like Verizon, AT&T, they have tons of debt. Comcast has that infrastructure side of the business, the broadband, and they use debt to that.
I mean, that you understand how they justify it cuz it's very reliable subscription revenue, but they have been paying off this debt and it's down to 82 billion dollars net debt.
That's in the latest quarter. It peaked at 107. They also have been spinning out some of those cable TV assets, which will likely be a good move and potentially could lead to them trading at a higher multiples going forward.
如果我们看康卡斯特的估值图，无论你怎么分析，它看起来都超级便宜。它的交易价格远低于该股历史上的中位数倍数。这里你可以看到，基于每股收益，过去 10 年的中位数倍数是 14.3。
如果它有一天回到那个水平交易，将意味着 54.22 美元的公允价值，较当前有 147% 的上涨空间。过去 10 年的股息率中位数是 1.99%。如果回到那个水平，66 美元的公允价值，较当前有 202% 的上涨空间。
对于自由现金流，过去 10 年的中位数倍数是 14.11。市价与自由现金流比率，目前是 3.83，疯狂。如果回到这个水平，隐含公允价值 80 美元，268% 的上涨空间。所以，如果你买入康卡斯特股票，这就是你的安全边际。
If we look at the value graph for Comcast, no matter how you crack the egg, it is looking super cheap. It's trading well below the median multiple the stock has traded at. Here you can see based on earnings per share, over the past 10 years the median multiple is 14.3.
If it ever returned to trading at that, it would imply a fair value of $54.22, which would be 147% upside from here. The median dividend yield over the past 10 years has been 1.99%.
If it went back to that, $66 fair value, 202% upside from here. For free cash flow, median multiple has been 14.11 over the past 10 years. Price to free cash flow ratio, it's currently 3.83, crazy.
If it went back to this, implied fair value $80, 268% upside. So, this is your margin of safety if you're buying into Comcast stock.
如果你对康卡斯特做股息贴现模型，这是一种保守的股票估值方法，如果你追求 10% 的回报，6.68% 的复合年增长率，也就是它过去 3 年的水平，那得出的内在价值是 33.25 美元，较当前有 51% 的上涨空间。
即便你预期更低的股息增长，比如 4%，那么仅从股息来看，它基本上就在公允价值附近。正如我提到的，那个股息并不真正代表他们的现金生成能力。理论上，如果他们愿意，他们可以把所有这些钱都用来偿还债务。
我的意思是，他们的自由现金流派息率大约在 25%。让业务处于更具吸引力的位置。
If you do the dividend discount model on Comcast, and this is a conservative way to value a stock, if you're going for a 10% return, 6.68% CAGR, which is what it was over the past 3 years, that gives an intrinsic value of $33.25, 51% upside from here.
And even if you expect lower dividend growth, like 4%, then it's basically around fair value just from the dividend alone. And as I mentioned, that dividend's not really representative of their cash generation.
Theoretically, if they wanted to, they could just pile all of that money towards paying off debt. I mean, they're at like a 25% free cash flow payout ratio. Get the business in a more attractive position.
就像，这只股票便宜得让你不禁想，你是不是漏掉了什么？你必须始终问这个问题。就像，我明白有线电视资产在衰退，他们正在摆脱这些。我明白媒体公司也很奇怪，而且有些变动。我甚至不知道最新的情况是什么。
他们总是在谈论可能把它剥离出去。然后你还有宽带和有线电视订阅的角度。你有 Peacock 流媒体。我不认为康卡斯特的互联网宽带业务会消失。它可能不是公司的增长点，但它肯定会在未来多年产生大量现金流和可靠的订阅收入。
现在，我不认为他们能够长期真正把人们追加销售到那个有线电视套餐里。他们可以从中获取一些现金。所以，我不知道。在评论区告诉我你对康卡斯特的看法。
Like, this stock is so cheap it has you wondering, like, what are you missing about it? And you have to always ask ask that question. Like, I get the cable TV assets are declining, and they're getting rid of those.
I get the media company is also weird, and there's like some flux. I don't even know what the latest thing is. They're always talking about spinning that out, maybe. Then you have the broadband and the cable TV subscription angle of it.
You got Peacock streaming. I don't think Comcast's internet broadband business is going to go away. It might not be a growth thing for the company, but it definitely will generate a lot of cash flow and reliable subscription revenue for years to come.
Now, I don't think they're going to be able to upsell people into that cable bundle really long-term. They can take some cash from it. So, I don't know. Give me your thoughts in the comments what you think about Comcast.
观察点
这个频道对 $CMCSA 的历次判断
Dividend Data 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。