David Lin 对 $CPER 的判断变化

2026-09-10看跌
Oil To 'Break' Everything; Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold Crashing 'Back Down' | Mike McGlone
铜面临潜在的崩盘(“事故”),其驱动因素是过度拥挤的多头头寸和高企的库存水平。

如果你看过去3、4年的铜,它的波动率是标普500的两到三倍,而且它表现落后。今年它表现不错。这是一场迟早要发生的事故。

And if you look at copper over the last 3 4 years, it trades at two to three times the volatility of the S&P 500 and it's underperformed. Now this year it's performed. That's an accident waiting to happen.

铜到底怎么了?是的,就在今天它下跌了5%。我一直说铜是一场迟早要发生的事故。问题在于,这场事故是不是正在开始?

What's going on with copper? Yeah, just today it's down 5%. I've been calling copper an accident waiting to happen. The question is is the accident starting?

而归根结底,铜的关键事实是,人人都懂基本面。人们总是重复这一点,而我很喜欢当我们接近极端的时候,人们重复着一些我们中有些人5年前就指出过的东西,但归根结底,人工智能、电气化、脱碳,所有这些,如果你深入市场内部去看,它就是一场迟早要发生的事故。

Um and the bottom line is the key facts of copper is everybody gets the fundamentals. People always repeat that and I love when we get to near extremes and people repeat the same stuff that some of us pointed out 5 years ago but um AI electrification decarbonization all that the bottom line is if you look inside the market it's an accident waiting to happen