CRDO 目前约 22 倍远期市盈率,估值偏低,原因是市场低估了其在光学/内存领域的扩张;资产负债表与客户基础支撑看多逻辑。
逐段跳播
现在,进入第一只股票,呃,Neil,我想先讲的是 Credo Technology,代码 CRO。呃,这是一家半导体公司。他们确实非常专注于 AI 服务器和 AI 基础设施的网络解决方案。
Now, jumping into the first stock, uh, Neil, that I want to jump into is going to be Credo Technology, ticker CRO. Um, this is a semiconductor player. they do really focus on the networking solution of of of AI servers and AI infrastructures.
呃,这家公司的一大风险通常是客户集中度。但我坚信,在这个 AI 故事中,只有少数一部分人在以这种规模建设 AI 基础设施。所以,无论你在半导体领域还是 AI 基础设施领域与谁合作,客户集中度都会是这门生意的一部分。
这是一个需要理解的风险,但也要理解它是这个领域的一部分。
Um, one of the big risk for this company is usually customer concentration. But I'm a firm believer that in this AI story, there's only a selected amount of people that are building AI infrastructures at these types of scales.
So no matter who you're working with in the semiconductor space or AI infrastructure space, customer concentration will be part of this business. It's a risk to understand but it's also understand that it is part of the space.
我刚才在看他们的远期市盈率。呃,这是未来 12 个月。Quo 目前的本财年远期市盈率大约为 22,这个财年他们刚刚开始。他们刚刚公布了 2026 财年第四季度的财报。所以现在他们处于 2027 财年第一季度。他们预计今年,呃,同比增长大约 85%。
Now I was just looking at their forward PE ratio. Uh and this is the next 12 months. Quo right now is trading at a forward PE of roughly 22 for this fiscal year which they just started.
They just reported their fiscal their their quarter 4 of fiscal year 2026. So now they're in quarter one of fiscal year 2027. They expect for this year um to be about 85% year-over-year growth.
而让我更兴奋的是,很多人只把它看作一家提供铜缆、帮助服务器与其他服务器或其他解决方案通信的公司。但重要的一点是,在未来 12 到 24 个月内,这家公司也在扩展到各种光学解决方案。
他们还在为存储领域生产某些解决方案,而其中很多收入预计将在 2028 财年体现出来。
And what gets me more excited about this is many see this as just a company that provides copper cables to help servers communicate with other servers or other solutions. But the big thing is in the upcoming 12 to 24 months, this company is also expanding into various optics solutions.
They're also producing certain solutions for the memory space and a lot of that revenue is expected to come out in fiscal year of 2028.
所以对我来说,Creole Technologies 就是那种很多人喜欢说的拥有许多看涨期权的公司之一。当然,目前我们关注的是网络领域。我们知道铜缆仍然会很重要。我们从所有领导者那里听到,不是铜或光学,而是铜和光学。
两者都会有各自的机会。但 Credo 是一家专注于其铜解决方案的公司。他们正在为电缆开发光学解决方案,用于,呃,scale up、scale out 解决方案,以及像我提到的一些其他领域。
So for me, Creole Technologies is one of those that what many people like to say it has many call options. It's sure right now we're focusing on the networking space. We know that the copper cable is still going to be important.
We hear it from all the leaders that it's not copper or optics, it's copper and optics. There's going to be an opportunity for both. But yet Credo is one that's focusing on their copper solutions.
They're working on optical solutions for both cables for both um scale up scale out solutions and like I mentioned some of these other places.
所以这让我相当兴奋,我认为市场低估了,尤其是考虑到那个 22 的远期市盈率,呃,22,低估了增长机会。在我把它交给你之前,Neo,最后一件事是,这是一家目前名下没有债务的公司。
呃,它基本上是一家市值 330 亿、300 亿美元的公司。他们大约有 7 亿美元现金,没有债务,以及各种增长机会。他们正在与,我相信,至少五家这些主要超大规模厂商合作,这些大概是排名前五的名字。
呃,而且他们确实与像 Amazon 这样的公司有着很好的合作关系。
So that gets me pretty excited and I think the market is underestimating especially with that forward PE ratio of 22 uh of 22 the growth opportunity. The final thing before I send it over to you Neo is this is a company that has no debt in its name right now.
It's uh it's pretty much a company with 33 billion in $30 billion in market cap. They about have about $700 million in cash, no debt, and various growth opportunities. They're working with, I believe, all at least five of these major hyperscalers, which are probably the top five names.
Uh and they do have great partnerships with companies like Amazon.
呃,所以 Credo Technology 是我的第一个标的,就像任何其他半导体或 AI 基础设施公司一样,Neo,如果 AI 基础设施出现放缓,这绝对是一家会受到冲击的公司。
所以我会说这是最大的风险,以及我刚才稍微提到过的客户集中度。
Uh so credo technology my first play just like any other of those semiconductor or AI infrastructure company Neo is if there is a slowdown in AI infrastructure this is one that can definitely take a hit.
So that's I would say the biggest risk and that customer concentration that I was mentioning a bit earlier.
是的。不,我的意思是,整个建设扩张正是我们看到这家公司高速增长、看到它变得越来越盈利的主要原因之一。所以,是的,如果整个AI领域出现放缓,这只股票可能会受到冲击。不过从基本面来看,也许冲击不会太大,因为目前的需求实在太大了,对吧?
建设这些数据中心,它们不是每天都能冒出来的。所以,仅仅因为一家公司说资本开支可能不会像以前那样增加,并不意味着Credo的业务在下滑。
Yeah. No I mean it's all the buildout is one of the main reasons why we're seeing this name grow at a tremendous pace why we are seeing this company become more and more profitable.
So yes, if there is going to be a slowdown in this whole AI space, it's a name that could get hit. Although fundamentally, maybe not by much because the demand right now is so big, right?
Building out these data centers, they don't pop up each and every day. So just because a company says that maybe capex is not going to increase as much as before doesn't mean that Credo's business is going down.
现在,Nebus是一家……顺便说一句,Credo目前正经历大约40%的回撤。所以,眼下确实已经出现了一波下跌,而正如你所说,20倍出头的远期市盈率在当前水平已经变得相当有吸引力了。
Now, Nebus is a company of co and by the way, Credo Credo right now is experiencing a draw down of around 40%. So, a dip has definitely happened right now and as you said low 20 times forward earnings is is getting quite attractive at these levels.
观察点
这个频道对 $CRDO 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。