$CRM

Salesforce面临利润率压缩和新客户获取放缓,但其低估值系数和代币成本可能下降支持中性至看涨前景,目标价458。

AI Stocks: Broadcom, Snowflake, HPE Earnings
Meet Kevin发布 2026-09-02 · 9 段内容
59:16/ 打开原视频

逐段跳播

9 段内容
59:1687:44

嗯,例如,首先,Anthropic 可能会在其 IPO 资金枯竭后崩溃,因为开源模型的主导地位和 Anthropic 的财务出血,或者,抱歉,其次,它可能成为主导其他软件的软件。

想想“Snow”或“Sales Force”例如;它容纳了“Snowflake”或“Salesforce”的数据,而没有用户界面。但那意味着人们在使用“云”,对吧,而不是“CRM”。

所以这是否意味着 CRM 的日子屈指可数?每一方都面临生存风险。这真的很烦人。很明显,软件行业经历了一段密集的抛售期。我仍然相信它仍处于相对沉重的抛售阶段。好。换句话说,仍然有机会,无论是 Bath 还是现在的 CRM。

我目前对它们不太感兴趣,但我列出它们只是因为很多人问起它们。

Well, for example, firstly, Anthropic might collapse after its IPO funding dries up with the dominance of open-source models and Anthropic's financial hemorrhage, or, sorry, secondly, it might become the software that dominates other software. Think of "Snow" or "Sales Force" for example; It accommodates " Snowflake" or "Salesforce" data without a user interface. But that means people are using "cloud", right , and not "CRM". So does this mean that CRM's days are numbered ? Each side faces existential risks. This is really annoying. It is clear that the software sector has gone through a period of intensive selling. I still believe that it is still in a relatively heavy selling phase . Good. In other words, there are still opportunities, whether it's Bath or CRM now. I'm less interested in them at the moment, but I'm only listing them because many people are asking about them.

像 Salesforce,从无到有,看,Salesforce 仍然处于 0.91 的系数,0.91 作为一个例子。Bath 在 0.92,ServiceNow 在 153.92。

Aya 1.53,我有一个意图在 0.9,Axon 2.1。2.19。你说了 Intuit 什么?我已经忘了。我不想写错然后被训斥。0.9。你知道,Snow 在这里是个异类,不是吗?

所以,Snow 在这个疯狂的评估中是个异类。但奇怪的是,这些公司赚了很多钱,却因为恐惧、缺乏利润率,或者人们认为泡沫已经结束而受到惩罚。我唯一能猜的是。你知道,当我们看这个图表时。

有一种恐惧,即这种编程的转变可能不会持续。所以,你知道,我认为如果我看这个,我仍然喜欢我的观点,我的结论是我现在仍然喜欢软件。但在某个时候,设备将变得极其便宜,以至于它们将再次成为新的机会。

嗯,还没有。也许我们需要一个“Anthropic 的撤退”。好。我的意思是,戴尔做得很好,但你也有分裂的风险,对吧?另外,关于设备,这就是分裂风险的来源。我们之前谈过这里的分裂风险,即 AI 和前沿推理增长放缓,而低利润的机构推理爆发。

这可能是市场试图探索的,我不知道。我的观点仍然是软件真的很有趣。Snowflake 真的很贵。在某个时候,硬件变得更可取,但软件很棒。我仍然相信在第三和第四季度触底仍然可能。像 Balantir 这样的低谷是可以利用的。在我看来。

Like Salesforce, which went from nothing ridiculous, look, Salesforce is still at a coefficient of 0.91, 0.91 as an example. Bath at 0.92, ServiceNow at 153.92. Aya 1.53, I have an intention at. 0.9 , Axon 2.1. 2.19. What did you say about Intuit? I had already forgotten. I don't want to write it incorrectly and then get reprimanded. 0.9. You know, Snow is the anomaly here, isn't he ? So, Snow is the anomaly in this insane assessment. But it's strange because these companies are making really good money , and they're being punished either because of fear, lack of margins, or because people think the bubble is over. The only thing I can guess is. You know, when we look at this graph we have here. There is a fear that this shift in programming may not last. So, you know, I think if I look at this, I still like my opinion, and my conclusion is that I still like software right now. But at some point, devices will become ridiculously cheap , to the point that they will once again become the new opportunity. Hmm, not yet. Perhaps we need an " anthropic retreat". Good. I mean , Dell is doing well, but you also have the risk of splitting, right? Also, with regard to devices, this is where the risks of division come from. We've talked before about the risk of splitting here, where AI and frontier inference growth slows, while low-margin institutional inference explodes. This may be what the markets are trying to explore, I don't know. if . My opinion remains that the software is really interesting. Snowflakes are really expensive. At some point, hardware becomes more desirable, but software is great. I still believe that reaching the bottom in the third and fourth quarters is still possible. And depressions like Balantir are exploitable. In my opinion.

如果你是一家像 Salesforce 这样的公司,你说:“嘿,我们将让你无缝地获取我们的数据并将其集成到云中,这样人们就不必离开同一个 Slack 应用,”你知道,要么是 Slackbot,我认为公平地说这是 CRM 的一部分,要么你可以直接通过云完成所有这些,你不必离开你的云对话,你可以做所有这些,你知道,那基本上可以读取你所有的数据。

那么,你是否有点高估了你的竞争优势?随着时间的推移,这是否会带来无法获得大量客户的潜在风险?

If you're a company like Salesforce and you say, "Hey, we're going to let you seamlessly take our data and integrate it into the Cloud so people don't have to leave the same Slack app," you know, either Slackbot, which I think is part of CRM to be fair, or you can just do all of that through the Cloud and you don't have to leave your Cloud conversation, and you can do all of that, you know, that can basically read all your data. So, are you somewhat overestimating your competitive advantage? Over time, does this create a potential risk of not being able to gain a large number of customers?

而这一点,令人惊讶的是,正是 Salesforce 在几天前上个季度的收益报告中所说的。Salesforce 说:“是的,如你所知,我们能够从现有客户那里赚更多的钱,但我们获得的新客户更少。”

And this, amazingly, is exactly what Salesforce said in its earnings report for the last quarter a few days ago. Salesforce said: "Yes, as you know, we were able to make more money from our existing customers, but we gained fewer new customers."

现在,我持有 Salesforce 的股票,所以这就像……这是需要注意的事情,你看。

Now, I own shares in Salesforce, so it's like...this is something to pay attention to, you see.

例如 Salesforce 和 ServiceNow,供那些对 ServiceNow 感兴趣的人参考。那么,我将切换到股票标签页。我会写下 Salesforce。

such as Salesforce and ServiceNow for those interested in ServiceNow. So I'll just switch to the stocks tab. I will write Salesforce.

所以,Salesforce 的问题是,这是你作为课程成员得到的所有反馈。我们在这里。利润率正在萎缩。成本增加了 18%。利润略有收缩。啊,毛利率略有收缩。我们的运营费用与收入增长成正比。

所以仍然有乐观情绪,但他们希望代币成本会下降,这是他们真正的赌注,而不是定价权。

So, the problem with Salesforce is that this is all the feedback you get when you are a member of the course. Here we are. The margins are shrinking. An 18% increase in costs. A slight contraction in profits. Ah, the gross profit margin has shrunk a little. We have operating expenses that are proportional to revenue growth. So there is still optimism, but they are hoping that the costs of the tokens will decrease and that is their real bet rather than pricing power.

这让我对 Salesforce 更感兴趣了一些。仅此而已。如你所知,它们都处于相同的境况,就像水涨船高。你知道,它们都在同一条船上。

So, that made me a little more interested in Salesforce. That's all . Ah, as you know, they are all in the same situation, like a rising tide. You know, they're all in the same boat.

如果我转向 CRM,CRM 股票,我有一个 458 的预测。是的,很可能。我认为这是一个公平的预期。

If I move to CRM, CRM stock, I have a prediction of 458. Yes, most likely. I think that's a fair expectation.

他说在等什么

代币成本下降以抵消利润率压力
如果成本下降,则支持论点;如果成本保持高位或上升,则削弱论点
未来几个季度财报
通过提高盈利能力支持看涨论点;如果定价权无法补偿成本上升,则削弱论点

这个频道对 $CRM 的历次判断

Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 9 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-02看涨
如果你是 Salesforce,你说:“嘿,我们允许你以编程方式获取我们的数据并将其集成到云中,这样人们就不必离开同一细分市场——你知道,要么是机器人 Slack,我认为这是一个 CRM,公平地说——或者你可以从云端完成所有这些,而不必离开你的云聊天,你可以做所有事情——你知道,这基本上可以读取你所有的数据,”那是不是意味着你在出售你的竞争优势?随着时间的推移,这是否会创造你无法转化尽可能多客户的可能性?
原话 07:02 ›
2026-09-02本条
嗯,例如,首先,Anthropic 可能会在其 IPO 资金枯竭后崩溃,因为开源模型的主导地位和 Anthropic 的财务出血,或者,抱歉,其次,它可能成为主导其他软件的软件。想想“Snow”或“Sales Force”例如;它容纳了“Snowflake”或“Salesforce”的数据,而没有用户界面。但那意味着人们在使用“云”,对吧,而不是“CRM”。所以这是否意味着 CRM 的日子屈指可数?每一方都面临生存风险。这真的很烦人。很明显,软件行业经历了一段密集的抛售期。我仍然相信它仍处于相对沉重的抛售阶段。好。换句话说,仍然有机会,无论是 Bath 还是现在的 CRM。我目前对它们不太感兴趣,但我列出它们只是因为很多人问起它们。
2026-08-28看涨
软件已经变得如此便宜,以至于有一段时间,Salesforce 的股票,我们有敞口,我们专门在它大约 165 美元时发出了买入警报,因为它有大约 13% 的自由现金流收益率。
原话 00:52 ›
看完整历史 ›
美股听风