Dell的多头论点基于持续的AI服务器需求和利润率扩张,连续五个季度上调指引证明了这一点,尽管对长期增长可持续性存在担忧。
逐段跳播
我们今天真的在关注戴尔这艘火箭船,这真是令人印象深刻。戴尔现在上涨10%。现在它从一条线回落。我们在417有一条线,真的在财报后从这里飙升。但我们已经在戴尔上围绕417弹跳了一段时间,回到466,这也是我们徘徊了一段时间的地方。
We uh are really looking at this rocket ship of Dell today which is really impressive. Uh Dell now up 10%. Now it's uh come off a line over here. We have a line at 417 really rocketing right off of that post earnings here. Uh but we've been rubber banding around 417 on Dell for a while now coming back up to 466 which is also where we've been hanging out for a bit.
希望戴尔可能成为推动整个市场上涨的股票。开盘时有一些获利了结。但看看那个。它已经试图在开盘价之上转绿。现在上涨约10.3%。我的意思是,这可能成为你今天的迷因股。天哪。我想说心理上这里会有500美元的天花板。
你在移动一家3000亿美元的公司。但让我们看看这里的技术面。所以,如果我们稍微缩小戴尔的图表,现在上涨11.4%。是的,这正在获得一些买入热情。我实际上在514有一条线。那似乎是一个位置。
让我们看看。那是一个斐波那契。哦,当你这样缩小时,火箭船。
hopefully Dell could just be the stock that lifts the entire market up. You got some profit taking right there at open. But look at that. It's already trying to turn green beyond where it was at open. Now up about 10.3%. I mean, this could end up being your memer today. Holy smokes. I'd say psychologically there'd be like a $500 ceiling here. You are moving a $300 billion company. But let's just look at the technicals here on this. So, if we zoom out a little bit on Dell and now up 11.4. Yeah, this is getting some buying enthusiasm. I actually got a line up at 514. Uh that uh seems to be a spot. Uh let's see. That is it is a fib. Oh, rocket ship when you zoom out like that.
好吧,让我们看看戴尔。戴尔是多汁的。如果你还没看,看我昨晚的视频。对吧?对于这类公司的投资者来说,戴尔是一个获得很好出价的公司,因为他们有非常非常坚实的预测,显示有需求,而且看起来,你知道,它将继续推动未来的收入。
All right, let's look at Dell. Dell was juicy. Watch my video on it from last night if you didn't yet, right? For investors in these sorts of companies and Dell's one that's getting a a great um bid here because they have this really really solid forecast showing that there is demand and it's looking, you know, like it's going to continue to drive revenue into the future.
Carmen,戴尔刚刚将其销售预期提高到250亿美元,但这是可持续的吗?我们今天早上在课程会员直播中刚刚谈到,你知道,戴尔的一个故事实际上是我们一直在谈论的企业AI采用。
Carmen, Del just raised its sales outlook to $25 billion, but is that sustainable? we were just talking about that in the course member liveream this morning about how you know one of the stories really for Dell is what we've actually been talking about about this this enterprise AI adoption
例如,你看戴尔的收益,现在没有放缓。
you look at Dell earnings for example, there's there's no slowdown right now.
呃,那意味着戴尔如何移动?戴尔戴尔。哦,哇,看那个。戴尔无法保持。天哪。有点需要戴尔保持才能对硬件感到兴奋。它应该提升所有船只,但它没有。
Uh, how does that mean Dell is moving? Dell Dell. Oh, whoa, look at that. Dell could not hold. Holy smokes. Kind of needed Dell to hold to be excited about hardware. It's supposed to lift all ships over here and it ain't.
呃,刚从我的意思是,我想我们甚至在那时上涨超过10%。我们昨天收盘是多少?让我们去查一下。我想是417。所以昨天我们收盘于呃收盘。我试图在财报前得到这个。不,这是收盘钟。收盘钟是424。
好的。所以424 483.94除以424。啊,在最高点上涨14%。天哪,那太不可思议了。
Uh, just went from I mean, I think we were up even more than 10% there for a moment. What do we close at yesterday? Let's go find out. I think it was 417. So yesterday we closed at uh close. I trying to get before earnings right here. No, this was the closing bell. Closing bell was 424. Okay. So 424 483.94 divided by 424. Ah, 14% at its high. Holy moly, that's incredible.
戴尔怎么样?因为他们跌到大约4%。是的,他们下跌了4%。那很奇怪。对于博通的设置来说,那不太好,但你知道,随便吧。
How is um how is Dell doing? Cuz they went down to like four. Yeah, they're down at 4%. That's weird. That's not so great for a Broadcom setup, but you know, whatever.
嗯,我们昨天也有戴尔,对其AI服务器的巨大需求。关于戴尔,有趣的一点是,这不仅仅是单个季度。戴尔,我想我没记错的话,已经连续五个季度上调了营收展望。所以,基本上一年多来他们一直在说,情况在好转,情况在好转,情况在好转,情况在好转。
而在现实世界中,英伟达并不是拿到芯片,装进盒子,然后发出去。不是这样的。戴尔组装服务器。其他人也这么做。这些服务器从戴尔流向项目、数据中心。所以戴尔实际上是现实世界建设和部署的一个非常好的晴雨表和水晶球。
嗯,你知道,销售预测上调了250亿美元,但那是250亿美元的AI服务器。那是相当实实在在的。所以他们在自己的故事中一直有很多势头,说这已经加速,这已经改善。
Um, we also had Dell yesterday, huge demand for their AI servers. What's interesting about Dell specifically is that it wasn't just one quarter. Um, Dell, I think I'm right in saying, has for five straight quarters raised its revenue outlook. So, they've basically been saying for more than a year, things are getting better, things are getting better, things are getting better, things are getting better. And in the real world, um, Nvidia doesn't sort of get its chip and put it in a box and send it out. That's not how it works. Dell assembles the servers. Others do that, too. And those servers go from Dell to the projects, the data centers. And so Dell is actually a very good barometer and crystal ball of real world build and real world deployment. Um, you know, the the sales forecast is up by $25 billion, but it's $25 billion of AI server. That that's quite tangible. And so they've had a lot of momentum in their own story saying this has accelerated, this has improved.
戴尔股价从盘中高点回落,该公司将年度销售展望大幅上调了20亿美元,AI服务器收入现在预计本财年将增长两倍,达到740亿美元。戴尔还报告了950亿美元的AI服务器积压订单,季度盈利远超华尔街预期。
Shares of Dell higher off session highs with the company boosting its annual sales outlook by a massive $2 billion with AI server revenue now expected to triple to $74 billion this fiscal year. Dell also reported a $95 billion AI server backlog and earnings in the quarter, well ahead of Wall Street's expectations.
戴尔继续保持势头。这是他们连续第五个季度基本上上调了展望。在服务器领域,它简直是一个强者,而且你知道,几年前戴尔被认为已经死了,或者我几乎可以称之为恐龙,但他们在服务器方面一直很出色,而且不仅仅是我要指出的AI服务器,还有他们的服务器,收入同比增长超过110%,因为如果你要拥有AI服务器,企业也需要升级他们的传统服务器基础设施。
Dell continues with momentum. This is the fifth straight quarter where they basically raised their outlook. It's just a powerhouse in the uh server area and you know a few years back Dell was considered dead or almost what I would call a dinosaur but they're just you know they've been great in terms on the server side and it's not just the AI servers I'm going to point to it's also their servers where the revenue was up over 110% year-over-year because if you're going to have AI servers the corporations also need their traditional server infrastructure upgraded.
我在看戴尔的股价,从更长期的时间范围来看。所以即使今年迄今实际上涨了252%,但他们花了一些时间才获得认可,或者至少让市场理解,你需要一个戴尔来把服务器设计整合在一起。
I'm looking at Dell shares on a sort of longer time horizon. So even year to date actually 252% gain but it took some time for them to get credit or at least for like the market to understand you need to have a Dell to put the server design together.
我确实这么认为,因为他们是这个领域的领导者,而且在竞争优势方面他们非常出色。他们拥有广泛的产品线。他们的供应链非常出色。他们的客户关系很好。而且他们也在进行优化计划,清理那些不会成功的产品线,最大化他们的利润率。
这是另一件我认为他们没有得到足够认可的事情。今年他们的营业利润率超过了11%。
I do because they're the leader in this space and they are very good in terms of their competitive advantages. They have a great breath of products. Their supply chain is phenomenal. Their client relationships are great. And they've also been in the process of going through an optimization program in terms of cleaning out the product lines that aren't going to work and maximizing their margins. That's another thing I think they don't get enough credit for. This year their operating margins were over 11%.
顺便说一下,我喜欢关于戴尔的讨论。我的意思是,像戴尔和利润率是正确的话题。在技术方面的故事一直是,英伟达主导了服务器的内容所有权。你知道,戴尔并没有真正贡献那么多。但如果我们达到那个32万亿美元的数字,戴尔肯定会占据那个市场的很大一部分。
I like the Dell talk by the way. I mean this is like Dell and the margins is the right thing to talk about. the story on the technology side has been that Nvidia dominates the content ownership of the server. You know, Dell doesn't really contribute that much to it. But if we get to that that $ 32 trillion number, surely Dell is going to take a big slice of that market.
绝对是这种情况,因为他们整个公司都准备好继续夺取市场份额,而且他们远远是服务器和AI服务器领域的第一名。所以是的,如果那个调查是正确的,那非常有趣,因为我上次看到的调查是到2030年达到8万亿美元,但现在我们看到的是32万亿美元。
正如你所说,这是一个巨大的数字,戴尔肯定会受益。而且我认为很多卖方分析师都看到了这一点,你会看到今天很多预估大幅上调。
definitely the case because they've got the entire uh company lined up to continue to take share and they're by far away the number one player in the server and AI server space. So yes, if that survey is correct, which is very interesting because the last survey I saw was through 2030 going to 8 trillion, but now we're looking at 32 trillion. As you said, that's a huge number and Dell will definitely benefit. And I think a lot of analysts on the sell side are seeing that and you're seeing a lot of the estimates today push up by quite an amount.
所以,呃,我想回到戴尔,因为看戴尔,这是另一件事,我们今天早上在直播中谈到了。你现在可以有这个戴尔的繁荣。问题是终端增长率是多少?我们今天早上触及了一些,因为那最终是你如何为这些承保的方式,而且,你知道,你是周期性的吗?
你不是吗?你总是会看到这些更高的利润率吗?这些结构性更高的利润率有多可持续?到目前为止,一切进展顺利。这就是为什么股票得到了很好的回报。
So, uh, I want to go back from Dell because see Dell, this is another thing we talked about this morning, uh, in in the course live. You can have this Dell boom right now. The question is what's the terminal growth? We touched on some of that uh, this morning because that's ultimately how you want to underwrite these uh, and uh, you know, are you cyclical? Are you not? Are you always going to see these higher margins? How sustainable are these structurally higher margins? So far it's going very well. That's why the stock's being very well rewarded.
你可以同时解释戴尔如何建设服务器基础设施并蓬勃发展,而Neoclouds却在受苦。可以解释,可以解释为什么戴尔在飙升。
you could simultaneously explain how Dell is building out server infrastructure and booming and the Neoclouds are suffering. could explain could explain why Dell is rocketing
那是戴尔。
That was Dell.
戴尔回升至上涨8%。
Dell recovering back up to 8%.
老实说,我认为这是基于戴尔,只是持续的硬件支出。
I think this is on the back of Dell, honestly, just the continued hardware spend.
戴尔应该把你推向新的水平。这个硬件问题,与CPOS、英伟达、戴尔、Sam Alman、Core Weave有关。所有这些都联系在一起。
Dell is supposed to push you to the new levels. this hardware issue with uh the CPOS's, the Nvidia, the Dell, the Sam Alman, the Core Weave. All of this kind of loops together.
戴尔今天上涨9%,而与此同时Marll下跌2%。
Dell up 9% today while at the same time Marll is down 2%.
企业数据中心戴尔今天上涨8%。他们不供应超大规模云服务商。他们不试图向超大规模云服务商销售Vera Rubin芯片。他们试图面向企业说:“看,我们会为你提供本地化的数据中心计算,在一个盒子里,在你自己的盒子里。
我们会交付机架、电源、交换设备、CPU、GPU。我们会为你把所有东西整合在一个盒子里。而且我们最终只拿大约6%的净利率。所以,为什么要自己做呢?我们会为你设置好,然后我们会卖给你我们的软件来配合它,这样对客户来说既好又容易。”
Enterprise data centers Dell up 8% today. They don't supply the hyperscalers. They're not trying to sell hyperscalers Vera Rubin chips. They're trying to go to businesses and say, "Look, we'll get you localized data center compute in a box, in your own box. We'll we'll deliver the rack, the power supply, the switching equipment, the CPUs, the GPUs. We'll put it all together in a box for you. And we only end up taking like a 6% net margin. So, why do it yourself? We'll set it up for you, and then we'll sell you our software to go with it, so it's nice and easy for the customer."
谁知道呢?也许那波涨势已经来了。我的意思是,戴尔已经涨了大约3倍,对吧?也许太晚了。
Who knows? Maybe that rally's already come. I mean, Dell's up like 3x, right? Maybe it's too late.
目前在企业AI领域获胜的公司是戴尔。问题是这种增长能持续多久?但话说回来,这就是过去两年人们一直在说的。就像一家净利率4%的公司如何变成5%、6%、7%、8%?嗯,那是因为AI繁荣,但那能持续多久?
The company that wins on enterprise AI right now is Dell. The problem is how long is that growth going to keep up? But then again, that's what people have been saying for the last two years. It's like how does a company with 4% margins go to five, go to six, go to seven, go to 8% net margins? Well, it's because of the AI boom, but how long does that go?
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $DELL 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 7 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。