GDX是强劲的长期投资；近期从117美元跌至约100美元，受通胀和债务等结构性宏观因素驱动，提供了买入机会。
逐段跳播
我仍然非常看好黄金，不仅仅是实物黄金，还有金矿公司，这让我们想到了 VanEck 金矿 ETF，代码为“GDX”。
I remain very optimistic about gold, and not just physical gold, but gold mining companies, which leads us to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, code “GDX”.
这很有趣，因为金矿公司实际上是八月份市场中最强劲的板块之一。GDX 在八月份上涨了约 30% 或更多，但自那以后我们看到了下跌。GDX 在八月底下跌了 4%，在八月的最后一天又下跌了 1.5%，在九月一日下跌了约 4%。
This is interesting because gold mining companies were actually one of the strongest sectors of the market in August. GDX made gains of around 30 percent or more in August, but we have seen a decline since then . "GDX" fell in recent days by 4% at the end of August, by another 1.5% on the last day of August , and by about 4% on the first of September.
其原因很奇妙。目前导致股市担忧的同一因素正在暂时给黄金带来压力：利率上升。为什么黄金在地缘政治风险下仍在下跌？通常，你可能会认为美国与伊朗之间的紧张局势加剧，所以让我们买入黄金。
有时确实如此。但市场目前关注一系列不同的相互作用。与伊朗的紧张局势推高了油价。油价上涨增加了通胀风险。更高的通胀增加了美联储收紧货币政策的可能性。这推高了收益率和美元。更高的实际收益率和更强势的美元可能给黄金带来压力。
黄金在 9 月 2 日左右跌至三周低点，因为美元走强和通胀担忧重燃盖过了美伊对峙的避险效应。我认为这很重要，因为它告诉我们黄金的投资逻辑不一定已经消失。我们正在目睹避险需求与高利率压力之间的拉锯战。
And the reason for that is wonderful. The same thing that is currently causing concerns about stocks is temporarily putting pressure on gold: rising interest rates. Why is gold falling despite geopolitical risks? Normally, you might think that tensions between the United States and Iran are increasing, so let's buy gold. And sometimes that's exactly what happens. But the market is currently focused on a series of different interactions. Tensions with Iran are driving up oil prices. Rising oil prices increase the risk of inflation. Higher inflation increases the likelihood of monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. This drives up yields and the dollar. Higher real yields and a stronger dollar could put pressure on gold. Gold fell to a three- week low around September 2, as a stronger dollar and renewed inflation fears outweighed the safe-haven effect of the US- Iran standoff. I think this is important because it tells us that the gold thesis has not necessarily disappeared. We are witnessing a tug-of-war between the demand for safe havens and the pressure of high interest rates.
那么，为什么我热爱“GDX”？记住“GDX”不是黄金。它是一只交易所交易基金，持有一篮子金矿公司的股票。矿业公司可以为黄金价格提供运营杠杆。如果一家矿业公司的生产成本，假设来说，是每盎司 2000 美元，而黄金价格从 3500 美元上涨到 4000 美元，那么矿业公司的利润只增加了 14%。利润
So, why do I love "GDX"? Remember that "GDX" is not gold. It is an exchange- traded fund that owns a basket of gold mining companies. Mining companies can provide operational leverage for the price of gold. If the cost of production for a mining company, hypothetically speaking, is $2,000 to produce an ounce of gold, and the price of gold rises from $3,500 to $4,000, then the profits of mining companies increase by only 14%. The profit
在八月份的大幅飙升之后，我很高兴看到一些热情在交易中消退。GDX 指数在第一季度达到 117 美元的峰值，今天稳定在 100 美元左右。它下跌了约 10%，即使在我们看到的八月份大涨之后，这也是考虑增加仓位的好时机。
After the massive surge in August, I am quite pleased to see some of that enthusiasm waning in trading. The GDX index peaked at $117 in the first quarter, and today it is settling at around $100. It's down by about 10%, which is a great time to think about adding, even after the big rally we saw in August.
那么，我对 GDX 指数的长期论点是什么？对我来说，这不是因为伊朗与美国开战，所以我们应该买入黄金。这是非常短视的想法，我希望它很快结束，并且不会以任何方式改变我的论点。我的论点要广泛得多。
我们面临持续的通胀风险、巨额政府赤字、超过 40 万亿美元的联邦债务，以及地缘政治不确定性。对货币长期购买力的质疑。央行对黄金的需求。我的意思是，这个清单很长。但与此同时，如果金价结构性保持高位，矿业公司可能会受益匪浅。
So , what is my long- term thesis for the GDX index? For me, it's not about Iran fighting the United States, so we should buy gold. This is very short-sighted thinking, and I hope it ends soon and does not change my thesis in any way . My thesis is much broader than that. We have persistent inflation risks , a massive government deficit , a federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, and geopolitical uncertainty. Questions about the long-term purchasing power of the currency. Central banks' demand for gold. I mean, the list is long. But at the same time, mining companies could benefit enormously if gold prices remain structurally high.
所以，在八月大涨之后，我不会追逐 GDX。我在等待回调，现在我们终于开始看到一个。我认为这种回调对于继续攀升至新的历史纪录水平是健康的。
So, after a huge August, I'm not chasing GDX. I'm waiting for the setbacks, and finally we're starting to see one. A pullback that I believe is healthy for continuing the climb towards new all- time record levels.
那么，我如何处理这个问题？我选择使用期权策略，通过卖出现金担保看跌期权来产生收入，希望获得更低的价格。看这里，你可以在我的期权社区中看到一个期权交易提醒，我卖出了一份 GDX 的现金担保看跌期权。
到期日是 10 月 16 日，执行价格为 85 美元。作为回报，我收取了 1.55 美元。所以，这意味着在这笔特定交易中，我每份合约收取了 155 美元。如果 GDX 跌破 85 美元，我很乐意在这些指定水平买入。
So, how do I deal with this? I choose to use an options strategy by selling a cash-covered put option, to generate income, hoping to get a lower price. Looking here, you can see an options trade alert within my options community , where I sold a cash-covered put option on GDX. The expiry date was October 16th with an execution price of $85. In return, I collected $1.55. So, this means I collected $155 per contract in this particular deal. If GDX falls below $85, I will gladly buy it at those specified levels.
然而，还有其他机会。我相信黄金是一个很好的投资选择，尤其是矿业公司，对我来说，那就是投资 GDX 基金。随着我们深入九月，这确实是我的方法。
However, there are other opportunities. I believe gold is a great investment option, especially mining companies, and for me that would be an investment in the GDX fund. And that is indeed my approach as we delve deeper into September.
这个频道对 $GDX 的历次判断
Mark Roussin, CPA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。