GOOGL 是强劲的长期买入标的;其 5000 亿美元订单储备与基础设施支出支撑未来增长,可抵御短期市场担忧。
逐段跳播
今天和我们一起带来Alphabet Google最新情绪数据。Alphabet Google是今天市场上的赢家之一,不过Andy,请从整体层面给我们讲讲你最新的情绪数据。
joining us today with the latest sentiment data for Alphabet Google. And Alphabet Google's one of the winners in the market today, but walk us through your latest sentiment data on a headline level, Andy.
是的,我认为Google是今天的赢家之一,也是长期的赢家之一,而且可能永远都是赢家,因为这是一家几十年来一次又一次以非常强劲的方式把握住这类机会的公司。
Yeah, I think Google's one of the winners today and they're the one of the winners long term and probably a winner forever because this is a company that's executed against these type of opportunities over and over again for decades in a very strong way.
所以当我们看Google在数据中心系统方面的作为时,这是一个将大幅增长的类别。它已经在非常快速地增长,但从5000亿美元到7000亿美元,甚至更高,未来几年内可能达到1万亿美元。
And so when we look at, you know, what Google's doing in terms of data center systems, this is a category that's going to grow uh significantly. It's already growing very fast, but from uh you know half a trillion dollar to $700 billion and even beyond getting to you know probably a trillion dollar within the next few years.
所以Google正在做的就是投资于这一领域,而华尔街因为Google的部分资本开支而惩罚了它。我们认为,这给了投资者一个独特的机会,去买入世界上最好的公司之一,这家公司正在为未来的增长强力布局。
So what Google's doing is investing in that and Wall Street has punished Google for some of its capex spend. Uh we think that this gives investors a unique opportunity to buy one of the best companies in the world that is positioning itself strongly for future growth.
该股较高点下跌了10%到15%。他们正在花很多钱,因为他们有非常充分的理由这么做。当你看到Google已经卖出、但目前还无法交付的未来收入积压订单时,它是5000亿美元。这比他们在过去12个月里收到的还要多。所以他们有能力将云基础设施收入翻一倍以上。
Um you know the stock down uh 10 to 15% off of highs. They're spending a lot of money because they have very good reasons to do so. you know, when you look at Google's backlog of uh, you know, future revenue that they've already sold that they can't fulfill right now, it's 500 uh it's $500 billion.
And that is more in the backlog than they've received in the prior 12 months. So they they're set up to more than double um their uh their cloud infrastructure revenues.
他们正在为此投入资金。我不知道世界上有谁会认为,为了5000亿美元的积压订单而花2000亿美元是个坏主意,除了华尔街那些目光短浅、只盯着未来两到四个季度现金流的交易员。
Uh they're spending into it. I don't know anyone in the world that would say, you know, this is a bad idea to spend $200 billion for a $500 billion backlog except for uh, you know, some of the short-sighted type of traders on Wall Street who are looking at cash flows over the next two to four quarters.
所以我认为,对长期投资者来说,AI建设这个故事应该被视为才刚刚开始、才刚刚加速。而Google处于完美的位置来把握这一点,因为他们历来都能强力把握这类机会,而且他们致力于无视华尔街的短期担忧,着眼于摆在面前的更长期机会。我们觉得这是一个非常独特的局面,而且非常看涨。
So, I I think for long-term investors, the story of the AI buildout should be one that you think of as just getting started, just ramping up. And Google is in perfect position to take advantage of this because of their history of strong execution against opportunities like this plus their commitment to ignoring you know short-term concerns of Wall Street and looking at the longer long-term uh opportunities that are in front of them.
Uh this is a a really unique setup we feel like and a very bullish one.
现在,你们的消费者需求增长完全没有放缓的迹象。然而你却看到股价出现分化、走势挣扎,还有这种奇怪的、几乎令人难以置信的关于支出和资本开支的叙事,以及它如何在某种程度上主导了部分叙事;而如果你退一步看,这些都是非常聪明的人在决定花掉并投资他们的钱,你得认为这会有回报。
它可能不会以完美的幅度回报,但肯定会有回报,Andy。
Now, your demand on your consumer demand growth shows absolutely no drop off. Yet there you see the divergence in the price of the stock and how it struggled and this strange almost almost uh incredible narrative about spending and capex spending and how it's kind of taken over some of the narrative when if you take a step back and look at it, these are really smart people who are deciding to spend and invest their money and you got to think it's going to pay off.
It may not pay off in a perfect amount, but it's certainly going to pay off, Andy.
是的,我认为很明显就是这样,我认为Google Alphabet的高管们也很清楚。当他们谈到云业务客户支出比承诺水平高出50%,并对Google Alphabet说我们拿到的还不够时,我们现在有——Google告诉华尔街的是,他们有5000亿美元收入的积压订单。
Yeah, I I I think it is um it's clear to us that it is, you know, I think it's clear to Google Alphabet executives as well. You know, when they talk about their customers on the cloud side are spending at 50% above their committed levels and are telling Google Alphabet, we can't get enough.
We've got now we've got a backlog uh you know of of a half a trillion dollars of revenue is what Google's telling the street.
认为这件事正在放缓而不是加速的想法,与我们看到的所有数据完全相悖,也与我从从事金属加工行业的朋友那里听到的所有轶事完全相悖——他们说,他们从Google、Meta、Alphabet、Microsoft拿到数亿美元的合同,仅仅是为了排气管,用于他们计划在未来3到5年建造的发电机。
There's the idea that this is slowing down rather than speeding up just flies in the face of all of the data that we are seeing. all of the anecdotes that I get from friends who are in the metalwork business and saying, you know, they're getting contracts from Google, Meta, uh, Alpha, Alphabet, uh, Microsoft for hundreds of millions of dollars just for exhaust pipes to to go off of the generators that they're planning to build over the next 3 to 5 years.
是的,增长来自Gemini。我认为,单就人们对这些不同平台的讨论量而言,Gemini已经落后了,但当你真正深入研究时,Gemini有一个非凡的产品,只是目前还没有进入大众的认知。
>> Yeah, it's the growth is coming from Gemini. Uh, and you know, I think Gemini has fallen behind in terms of just the the amount that people talk about these different platforms, but you know, when you really get down into it, Gemini has a phenomenal product um that just hasn't penetrated the consciousness claent right now.
但在此时做空Google Alphabet,就像在2000年、2001年做空他们一样,当时搜索和广告搜索才刚刚起步。我认为那是个巨大的错误。
But to bet against Google Alphabet at this point is like betting against them, you know, in in 2000 2001 uh when search and advertising search was just getting started. I think it's a huge mistake.
所以Gemini开始起飞了。数据中心这一侧的业务,无论是消费者需求还是企业需求,都在起飞,并真正在带动整体。我认为Google有点落后了。Microsoft Azure在我们的数据中处于最高水平,但Google——或者说Alphabet——对基础设施建设的投资将有助于缩小这一差距,他们将成为这一领域的领导者之一,而且这当中会涌现出多个赢家,我强烈预期Alphabet会是那些大赢家之一。
And so uh Gemini is starting to take off. The data center uh side of the business in terms of uh consumer or business demand is taking off and really carrying things. I think Google's falling a little bit behind.
Microsoft Azure is you know in our data is pacing at the highest level but uh Google's investments into or Alphabet's investments into infrastructure build out are going to help uh close that gap and they're they're going to be one of the leaders in this and there's going to be multiple winners come out of this and I I strongly expect that Alphabet will be one of those big winners.
这个频道对 $GOOGL 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 4 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。