Alphabet受TPU采用推动拥有显著增长机会,且相较纯芯片制造商具备波动更低的投资特征。
逐段跳播
而我们完全一致认为其中一家拥有巨大机遇的公司是 Alphabet 旗下的 Google。所以,Alphabet 不仅是 Nvidia 最大的客户之一,占其收入的 10 到 15% 左右。
它也是 Nvidia 最大的竞争对手之一,凭借 TPU。所以,他们不仅用 TPU 来驱动自己的 AI 设备,还用来驱动自己的云。他们把它们卖给像 Anthropic 这样在 TPU 上训练的公司。
And one of the ones that we agreed wholeheartedly has a huge opportunity ahead of them is Alphabet in Google. So, Alphabet not only is one of Nvidia's biggest customers accounting for somewhere around 10 to 15% of their revenue.
It's also one of their biggest competitors with TPUs. So, they're using that to power not only their own AI devices, but also their own cloud. They're selling them to companies like Anthropic who are training on TPUs.
而且我觉得有趣的一点是,John,他们的芯片正在变得更好,这将是整个视频的一个主题,但他们一直在制造的定制芯片,刚刚在过去一周左右发布的新基准测试结果真的非常出色。看起来从推理方面来说,这未来可能对 Nvidia 构成巨大的竞争。
And the interesting thing I thought too, John, is that their chips are getting better and this is going to be a theme throughout this video, but the the custom chips that they've been making, the new benchmarks that came out just in the past week or so have been really phenomenal.
It seems like from an inference side this could be a huge competition for Nvidia going forward.
那么,这些需求将在哪里得到满足?将由像 Alphabet 这样的大公司来满足。正如你指出的,它的 TPU 非常强大。事实上,它的 TPU 正是驱动 Google 的 AlphaFold 的硬件,AlphaFold 发现了蛋白质,并因此获得了诺贝尔奖。
所以,它是驱动了一项诺贝尔奖获奖发现的硬件。因此,我认为这是很好的验证。TPU 非常强大,如果 Nvidia 出现失误并失去一点市场份额,Alphabet 就在一旁伺机而动,准备拿下一些。
So, where is that demand going to be satisfied? It's going to be a big company such as Alphabet. And as you point out, it's TPUs are very powerful. In fact, its TPUs are what powered Google's AlphaFold where it was discovering proteins and that actually won a Nobel Prize.
So, it is the hardware that has powered a Nobel Prize winning discovery. And so, I think that is good validation here. The TPUs are very powerful and could, if Nvidia were to slip and lose a little market share, Alphabet is sitting right there in the wings waiting to take some.
是的,我一直想到的另一个验证是 Anthropic,它可以说是当今最好的模型,也是在 TPU 上训练的。那里有巨大的联系,但 Alphabet 和 Amazon 是当初帮助资助 Anthropic 起步的两家公司,投入了数十亿美元。
其中一部分就是,'嘿,用我们的 TPU。'所以,现在他们有了更多 TPU 客户。所以,我认为这最终将成为那些巨大的威胁之一,会拆解 Nvidia 所带来的部分垂直整合。
Yeah, the other validation that I always think about, too, is Anthropic, which arguably has the best models that are out there today, also trained on TPUs. And there's there's a huge tie that goes back there, but uh Alphabet and Amazon were two of the companies that helped fund uh Anthropic when they got started with, you know, several billion dollars.
And part of that was, "Hey, use our TPUs." And so, now they have more customers for their TPUs. So, I think that's ultimately going to be one of those big threats that kind of pulls apart some of the vertical integration that Nvidia has brought to the table.
但你看像 Google 和 Amazon 这样的其他公司。这是世界上最大的两家云业务。所以,他们也已经有了一个地方来放置他们的硬件,就在他们自己的生态系统内。这非常巨大。这太巨大了,这也是为什么 Nvidia 确实投资这些 Neo Cloud,因为它确实需要那些客户成功,因为,顺便说一句,那些大型云公司实际上可以使用自己的东西。
所以,他们投资自己的硬件是完全合理的,因为他们今天确实有可以放置这些硬件的基础设施。
But you look at these other companies such as Google and Amazon. These are two of the biggest cloud businesses in the world. So, they also have a place to put their hardware already in their own ecosystem.
That that is huge. That is so huge and it's why Nvidia does invest in these Neo Clouds because it does need that that those customers to succeed because oh, by the way, the the large cloud companies, they actually can can use their own stuff.
And so, you know, it it makes total sense that they would be investing in their own hardware because they do have infrastructure that they can place them in today.
好,我想以一点估值方面的内容来结束,因为你看我们谈到的那些较大的公司,Alphabet 的市盈率约为远期盈利预期的 25 倍,Amazon 约为远期预期的 27 倍,AMD 和 Marvell 则处于非常不同的境地。
AMD 约为远期预期的 47 倍,Marvell 约为 43 倍。
All right, I want to end with a little bit on valuation because you look at the bigger companies that we talked about, Alphabet, trading for about 25 times forward earnings estimates, Amazon trading for about 27 times forward estimates, AMD and Marvell in a very different boat.
Uh AMD trading for about 47 times forward estimates and Marvell at about 43.
也许我应该这样回答。我认为,相比 Amazon 和 Alphabet,AMD 和 Marvell 的贝塔值或波动性应该会更高。所以,如果你今天想只做一笔投资,也许你会想要 Amazon 和 Alphabet 这类贝塔值较低的股票,而且你不太担心大幅回调,因为它们是实力雄厚的大公司。
如果你更担心波动性,也许 Marvell 和 AMD 是适合定投的标的,你要明白它们很可能在某个时点大幅走低,也可能大幅走高。你并不知道顶部和底部在哪里。所以,你只能对一个仓位进行定投。
Well, maybe I should answer it like this. I mean, I think that you should expect higher beta or higher volatility with AMD and Marvell compared to Amazon and Alphabet. So, if you are looking to make a single investment today, maybe you want the lower beta stocks in Amazon and Alphabet and you're not too worried about a huge pullback because these are huge powerful companies.
If you're more concerned about the volatility, maybe Marvell and AMD are ones that you dollar cost average in, understanding that chances are they will be significantly lower at some point and also significantly higher.
You don't know where the top and the bottom is. So, you're just going to dollar cost average a position.
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