LLY 目前被低估（公允价值 1,494 美元，现价 1,153 美元），受减肥药强劲势头与自由现金流增长推动，预计 12-18 个月内上涨约 30%。
逐段跳播
我们将从一家市值约一万亿美元的公司，走向一家市值超过一万亿美元的公司，这家公司就是Eli Lilly。我无需解释Eli Lilly受益于什么；这一积极势头当然来自减肥治疗药物所创造的销售热潮，这让我想起Nvidia和Micron等人工智能公司的销售热潮。
We will move from a company with a market value of about one billion dollars to a company with a market value of more than one trillion dollars, which is Eli Lilly. I don't need to explain what Eli Lilly benefits from; the positive momentum is of course the weight loss treatments that have created a sales boom, which reminds me of the sales boom of artificial intelligence companies like Nvidia and Micron.
Eli Lilly的销售额正在飙升，自由现金流也在蓬勃发展。我估计该公司的自由现金流将从2025年的120亿美元增长到2032年的超过770亿美元。由此得出该股的估计公允价值为1,494美元，而其当前市场价格为1,153美元。
Eli Lilly's sales are soaring, and its free cash flow is booming. I estimate the company's free cash flow will grow from $12 billion in 2025 to over $77 billion by 2032. This results in an estimated fair value for this stock of $1,494 compared to its current market price of $1,153.
Eli Lilly并非仅仅利用当前的消费者需求。事实上，它正在扩大其可及性，以服务有更具体需求的客户。这一类别很可能会在未来数年内持续增长，而Eli Lilly处于极佳的位置，能够从销售增长中受益。
Eli Lilly does not simply capitalize on current consumer demand . In fact, it is expanding its availability to serve customers with more specific needs. This category is likely to continue growing over several years, and Eli Lilly is in an excellent position to benefit from increased sales.
此外，这家公司在研发消费者愿意为之付费的治疗方法方面拥有数十年的经验。有理由假设，在未来10年、20年和30年里，它将从其丰富的产品线中推出更多治疗方法，一旦该类别饱和，这些治疗方法将取代健康治疗药物的销售。
Furthermore, this company has decades of experience in researching and developing treatments that consumers are willing to pay for. It is reasonable to assume that over the next 10, 20, and 30 years it will introduce more treatments from its robust product line, which will replace sales of health treatments once that category is saturated.
我计算出Eli Lilly在未来十二到十八个月内将上涨约30%。我的投资组合中持有Eli Lilly的股票，并且我有兴趣增持更多。
I have calculated an increase of approximately 30% for Eli Lilly over the next twelve to eighteen months. I own Eli Lilly shares in my portfolio, and I am interested in adding more of them.
这个频道对 $LLY 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。