MCD 是首选买入标的；尽管面临短期逆风，其低估值与强劲利润率仍提供 18% 的上行空间及股息回报。
逐段跳播
麦当劳在2026年的表现令人失望。该股已下跌超过18%，我当然感到失望，因为我曾把麦当劳列为今年最值得买入的十大股票之一。我把麦当劳列入2026年十大股票看来为时过早，因为公司面临执行上的困难以及宏观经济逆风。
管理层最近把实现5万家门店目标的时间预期从2027年推迟到了2028年。
McDonald's performance in 2026 was disappointing. The stock has dropped by more than 18%, and of course I'm disappointed because I ranked McDonald's as one of the top 10 stocks to buy this year .
My ranking of McDonald's in the top ten for 2026 appears to have been premature, as the company has faced implementation difficulties along with macroeconomic headwinds . The management team recently pushed back their estimate for when they will reach their 50,000 store goal from 2027 to 2028.
那么，这让我对麦当劳的评级处于什么位置？我是否仍然认为它是目前最值得买入的公司之一，还是我在下调这家公司的评级？
So, where does that put me in terms of my ranking of McDonald's? Do I still think it's one of the best companies to buy right now, or am I downgrading this company?
因此，尽管存在这些宏观经济逆风，麦当劳的业务仍在增长。过去12个月营收达到277亿美元，而近期的创新举措结果好坏参半。
So , despite these macroeconomic headwinds, McDonald's business is still growing. Revenues reached $27.7 billion over the past 12 months, and recent innovations have had mixed results.
该公司推出的3美元以下菜单并没有像管理层预期的那样高效奏效。不过，新的饮品举措更为成功，冷萃咖啡和创新软饮的业绩好于管理层的预期。
The company's innovation of a menu under $3 is not working as efficiently as management expected. However, the new beverage initiative has been more successful , with the cold brew coffee and innovative soft drinks achieving better results than management expected.
然而，整个行业面临的逆风正在对麦当劳造成负面影响。人们的可支配收入减少，选择外出就餐的频率降低。与此同时，麦当劳的投入成本全面上升。无论是强制麦当劳支付更高工资的最低工资法律，还是导致新门店建筑材料价格上涨以及食品价格上涨的关税。
此外，伊朗战争和油价上涨带来了更大压力，不仅推高麦当劳的运营成本，还因人们银行账户中可用于购买和外出就餐的钱减少而恶化了消费者状况。因此，所有这些都对麦当劳的业绩构成压力，而考虑到所有这些逆风，麦当劳的表现相对还算不错。
However, the headwinds facing the sector as a whole are negatively impacting McDonald's. People have less disposable income and choose to eat out less frequently. At the same time, input costs for McDonald's are increasing across the board.
Whether you're talking about minimum wage laws that force McDonald's to pay higher wages, or you're talking about tariffs that have caused price increases for building materials for new sites and food prices as well.
Furthermore, the war in Iran and rising oil prices are putting more pressure, not only on McDonald's operating costs, but also worsening the consumer situation by leaving less money in people's bank accounts to buy and eat out.
Therefore, all of this weighs on McDonald's performance, and considering all these headwinds, McDonald's performance is relatively good.
我最初把麦当劳列为最值得买入的股票之一的原因之一是，它在推动营收增长，而且业务本身盈利能力极强，营业利润率超过45%。尽管存在前面提到的所有这些逆风、成本和投入，这一利润率仍保持在这些水平。
One of the reasons I initially ranked McDonald's as one of the best stocks you could buy was that they were driving revenue growth, and the business itself was extremely profitable, with an operating profit margin exceeding 45%.
This margin has remained at these levels despite all the headwinds, costs and inputs highlighted previously.
让我对麦当劳感到乐观的另一个原因是前沿技术的整合。店内有自助点餐机，人们可以在那里点餐，而不必到收银台点餐。这减少了对每家门店人力的依赖。正如我提到的，劳动力成本正在上升，因此这对加盟商来说是一项重大改进。
此外，人工智能在得来速服务窗口的应用，进一步降低了每家门店的劳动强度。除此之外，还有正在全球扩张的外卖配送网络。另外，还有送餐机器人，扩大了每家麦当劳门店的覆盖范围。因此，所有这些因素都促成了我对麦当劳股票的乐观展望，但这些进展似乎因经济逆风而被推迟，而我前面提到的挑战盖过了这些技术投资带来的好处。
Another reason that made me optimistic about McDonald's is the integration of cutting-edge technology . You have kiosks in stores where people can order their meals instead of ordering from the cashier.
This reduces reliance on labor at each site. As I mentioned, labor costs are increasing, so this was a significant improvement for franchisees. Furthermore, you have the development of artificial intelligence in drive-through service windows, further reducing labor intensity at each location.
On top of all that, you have food delivery networks that are expanding all over the world. In addition, there are robots that deliver food, expanding the reach of each McDonald's location.
Therefore, all these factors contributed to my optimistic outlook on McDonald's stock, but it seems that those developments were delayed due to economic headwinds, and the challenges I mentioned earlier overshadowed the benefits of those investments in technology.
然而，麦当劳的股票比以往任何时候都便宜。其远期市盈率为17.8。很长时间以来你都无法以这一估值买入麦当劳股票。2026年估值在这里彻底崩塌。今年某些时候，其远期市盈率为24，如今已降至17.8。
投资者已经意识到我前面提到的所有挑战，他们没有兴趣抢先布局、买入麦当劳股票。
However, McDonald's stock is cheaper than ever. It is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8. You haven't been able to buy McDonald's stock at this valuation for a very long time .
The valuation has completely collapsed here in 2026. At some points this year, it was trading at a forward P/E ratio of 24, and it has now dropped to 17.8. Investors are aware of all the challenges I mentioned earlier, and they are not interested in getting ahead of the curve and buying McDonald's stock.
因此，鉴于麦当劳管理层的最新消息，我下调了对麦当劳的预期。我现在预计麦当劳未来三年（26、27和28年）的现金流会更低，并将其创新举措带来的收益推迟到2029年才开始体现。所有这些的影响是，我略微下调了该股的内在价值至295美元。
当前市场价格为250美元。因此，我认为麦当劳股票在未来12至18个月有18%的上行空间，此外还有股息派发。
Therefore, in light of the latest updates from the McDonald's management team, I have revised my McDonald's estimates downwards. I now expect lower cash flows from McDonald's over the next three years, 26, 27 and 28, and have postponed the benefits of their innovations to begin in 2029.
All of this has had an effect of slightly reducing my intrinsic value of the stock to $295. The current market price is $250. Therefore, I see an 18% upside opportunity for McDonald's stock over the next 12 to 18 months, in addition to dividend payouts.
我认为我把麦当劳列为2026年最值得买入的股票之一过于仓促。但我仍然对这家公司感到乐观，我提到的那些积极因素依然存在，甚至可能变得更强。短期挑战很可能延续到2026年，对麦当劳来说这很可能仍是艰难的一年。
我会把麦当劳列为目前最值得买入的股票之一，尽管我认为推动股价改善的催化剂可能不会在今年出现。尽管可能不会在今年出现，但鉴于投资麦当劳股票的风险相对较低，我认为以风险回报比来衡量，投资者在麦当劳股票上有很好的机会。
I think I was too hasty in ranking McDonald's as one of the best stocks to buy in 2026. But I'm still optimistic about the company , and those positive factors I mentioned are still there, and have perhaps even become stronger.
Short-term challenges are likely to continue into 2026, and it is likely to remain a difficult year for McDonald's. I would rank McDonald's as one of the best stocks you can buy right now, although I believe the catalyst for an improved stock price may not happen this year.
Although it may not happen this year, I believe investors have a great opportunity in McDonald's stock when measured on a risk-versus- reward basis, given the relatively low risk of investing in McDonald's stock.
这个频道对 $MCD 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。