MCD 因销售放缓及低收入消费者收缩而面临技术面与基本面双重疲软，对该股持看空观点。
逐段跳播
我们有麦当劳，它正因餐厅消费者需求下滑而受困。这个领域竞争非常激烈。他们现在拿出了未来十年的战略，昨天这一战略反响不佳，但今天在投资者日的带动下股价正在上涨。
We have McDonald's, which is suffering from a decline in consumer demand for restaurants. There is a lot of competition in this field. They now have their strategy for the next ten years, which did not receive a good reception yesterday, but they are rising today in the wake of Investor Day.
当我审视麦当劳并分析这些数字时，我发现该股已下跌5%至238，如果你看走势图——我们稍后就会看——你会发现该股正处于急剧而持续的下跌状态。但数字，那些关键的数字，才是我想要谈的。
When I look at McDonald's and analyze the numbers, I find that the stock has dropped by 5% to 238, and if you look at the chart, which we will do shortly, you will find that the stock is in a state of sharp and continuous decline .
But the numbers, the essential numbers, are what I want to talk about.
第二季度，美国同店销售额仅增长0.8%，低于预期。去年同期他们实现了约2.5%的增长。所以，如你所见，增长正在放缓。
For the second quarter , comparable sales in the United States rose by only 0.8%, which was below expectations. They achieved growth of approximately 2.5% in the previous year. So, as you can see, growth is slowing down.
管理层的表态还指出，低收入者正在削减餐厅消费，燃油和其他必需品进一步消耗了他们的预算，这说得通。我的意思是，你不会花10美元或15美元去买我们可能认为不健康的食物，同时还要为燃油支付更多，更不用说更高的利率了——这意味着如果你背负着信用卡债务，你能花在像麦当劳这样的可选消费品上的钱就更少。
你会开始选择在家做饭，也许会打开一袋米煮上。但归根结底，他们看到这一点已经反映在了自己的数字里。
The administration's comments also pointed out that low-income earners are cutting back on restaurant food, with fuel and other necessities further draining their budgets, which makes sense .
I mean, you're not going to spend $10 or $15 on what we might consider unhealthy food, while also paying more for fuel, not to mention higher interest rates, which means that if you're carrying credit card debt, you'll have less money to spend on optional consumer goods like McDonald's.
You will start choosing to cook at home, perhaps you will open a bag of rice and boil it . But the bottom line is that they are seeing it reflected in their numbers.
从技术角度看，我知道我们会讨论走势图，自4月以来我们看到了一个向下方向的移动平均线交叉，此后该股一直在下跌。我原以为会在245附近看到反弹。但我们跌破了该水平并越过了它。所以，麦当劳在技术面上很挣扎，在基本面上也很挣扎。
From a technical standpoint, and I know we will be discussing the chart, we have seen a moving average crossover in the direction since April, and the stock has been declining since then.
I thought we would see a rebound at around the 245 level . But we broke that level and surpassed it . So, McDonald's is struggling technically and is also struggling fundamentally.
自那以后，趋势一直对麦当劳不利。是的，我不确定“麦饭”这个想法会不会受欢迎，但看看我们目前看到的情况，在我们见到这里最陡峭的下跌之前，曾有一个下降楔形形态。所以，这是从一个本已向下倾斜的形态中出现的向下突破。
现在，我们在两条白线之间形成了一个非常狭窄而有限的通道。如果我们取上方那条线并外推、重复，再与底部对齐，它与我们近期的大部分走势都精确吻合。除了昨天，我们现在看到了一次向下突破，最低点触及234.03。
今天到目前为止，我们有一次尝试回到通道内。但目前正在形成的这根K线属于“孕线”类型。我们的小绿K线完全被前一日较大的红K线所包含。如果我们在收盘前维持这一形态，“孕线”形态表明动能暂停，并可能出现反转。因此，这或许是未来值得考虑的有趣之处。
the trend hasn't been in McDonald's favor since then Yes, I'm not sure the "Mc-Rice" idea will be popular, but look at what we have here so far, there was a descending wedge shape before we saw our steepest decline here.
So, this was a downward breakout from a pattern that was already trending downwards. Now, we have formed a very narrow and limited channel here between our two white lines. If we take our top line and extrapolate, repeat, and match the line with the bottoms, it fits accurately with most of our recent activities.
Except for yesterday, we have now seen a downward breakout that reached its lowest point at 234.03. We have an attempt so far today to get back inside our channel here. But at the moment, the candle that is forming is of the " Harami" type.
Our small green candle is completely enclosed inside the larger red candle from the previous day. If we maintain this framework until the close, the "Harami" pattern indicates a pause in momentum and a possible reversal.
Therefore, this may be something interesting to consider in the future.
其他值得注意的高点包括这里的252，即我们急剧下跌前的一个前高，261附近的一个反复出现的底部，以及279附近的一个反复出现的顶部。所以，我们看到了那段横盘走势，随后变成了这里的快速下跌。
那么，相对强弱指数（RSI），我们的动能指标，在这里呈下行趋势。我们可以看到，在昨天跌破30进入超卖区之后，我们现在勉强才脱离该区域。我们目前处于30.3的水平。因此，超卖区通常预示着未来还会有进一步走弱，这里就是这么解读的。
所以，留意我们是否会再次出现这个交叉。深蓝色显示的5日指数移动平均线位于244水平。如果我们回升并突破上方阻力，我们的21日指数移动平均线，代表一个月，位于253.22。最后，我们的成交量分析显示，我们在247至256之间有一个成交量堆积区。
这里是一个波动性略大的区域，但在268至278之间还有另一个更大、更明显的区域。还要注意这些下跌日里的巨大成交量。当你把所有这些数据放在一起时，这并不是一个真正的好迹象。
Other notable highs include 252 here, a previous high before our sharp decline, a recurring floor near 261, and a recurring ceiling near 279. So, we saw that sideways movement which then turned into our rapid decline here.
So, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), our momentum measure, is trending downwards here . We can see that after penetrating the oversold zone that pushed us below 30 yesterday, we have barely managed to get out of it now.
We are currently at the 30.3 level . Therefore, the oversold zone usually indicates further weakness to come, that's how it's interpreted here. So, keep an eye out to see if we make this intersection again.
The 5-day exponential moving average, shown in dark blue, comes at the 244 level. If we recover and break the upward barrier, our 21-day exponential moving average, which represents one month, comes at 253.22.
Finally, our volume analysis shows that we have an accumulation of volume here, between 247 and 256. It is a somewhat more volatile area here, but there is also another, larger and more pronounced area between 268 and 278.
Also note the heavy volume during these down days as well . It's not a really good sign when you put all this data together.
是的，尽管如此，麦当劳股价今天上涨了1%，达到240.82。是的，正如你说的，Marley，我也喜欢麦当劳的薯条，但我并不真的热衷于投资这只股票，至少我并不乐观。因此，我将其视为一种“看跌看涨价差”策略。
我看的是2026年11月的到期日。如果你买入一份执行价为270的期权，那意味着大约3美元的折价，而如果你卖出一份执行价为260的期权，你将获得约1.50美元的信用金。事实上，如果你把这两笔交易反过来，你需要花1.50美元来保护自己，然后你会获得3美元的信用金。
所以，你将获得1.50美元的净余额。我喜欢这个价差的地方在于，首先，你有20到25点的上行空间，股价可以在遇到任何问题之前先涨这么多，而我不认为它会反转并上涨20点，但话说回来，你有这个空间。
其次，随着时间推移，这笔权利金会留在你口袋里。所以，你冒着约10美元的风险去赚1.50美元，从数学上讲这代表15%。假设股价保持在260以下，57天内获得15%的回报，这个风险回报比并不差。
正如我所说，他们有他们的更新计划，而市场通过大幅抛售向你展示了它的看法。所以，这不像科技股那样，明天推出一个新AI模型或什么就能扭转股价走势。我相信该股将继续下跌，或者充其量横盘，这让我对采取“卖出看涨期权”策略感到安心。
Yes, despite that , McDonald's shares rose today by one percent to reach 240.82. Yes, as you said, Marley, I also enjoy McDonald's French fries, but I'm not really keen on investing in the stock, at least I'm not optimistic.
Therefore, I view this as a " bear call spread" strategy. I am looking at the expiry date in November 2026 . If you buy an option with an execution price of 270, that means a discount of about $3, and if you sell an option with an execution price of 260, you will get a credit of about $1.50.
In fact, if you reversed those two transactions, it would cost $1.50 to cover yourself, and then you would get a credit of $3. So, you will get a net balance of $1.50. What I like about this difference is, firstly, that you have an upside margin of 20 to 25 points that the stock can move into before you encounter any kind of problems, and I don't see it reversing and going up 20 points, but again, you have that margin.
Secondly, over time , that bonus stays in your pocket. So, you risk about $10 to earn $1.50, which mathematically represents 15%. A 15% return over 57 days, assuming the stock remains below 260, is not a bad risk-to- reward ratio.
They had their renewal plans, as I said, and the market showed you its opinion on that through large sell-offs . So, it's not like technology stocks where they're going to introduce a new AI model or something to reverse the stock's trajectory tomorrow.
I believe the stock will continue to decline or, at best, move sideways, which makes me feel comfortable adopting a " sell the down call" strategy .
但我喜欢宝洁的地方在于，与麦当劳和Capital One不同，它不依赖可支配收入用于娱乐消费。宝洁的特点是，人们实际上仍然需要Tide、Pampers、Charmin卫生纸、牙膏以及所有这些东西，对吧？
因此，它是你最不可能想到要放弃的东西，而麦当劳可能是你最先决定停止花钱的东西。
But what I like about Procter & Gamble is that, unlike McDonald's and Capital One, it does not rely on disposable income for entertainment spending. The thing about Procter & Gamble is that people still actually need Tide, Pampers, Charmin toilet paper, toothpaste, and all that stuff, right?
Therefore, it is the last thing you might think of giving up, whereas McDonald's might be the first thing you decide to stop spending your money on.
观察点
这个频道对 $MCD 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。