MCD 被低估，12-18 个月内存在超过 26% 的上行空间；尽管近期自由现金流下滑且面临健康趋势风险，AI 创新仍支撑长期逻辑。
逐段跳播
我们直接从麦当劳开始，这是我首先要重点介绍的第一只派息股票。麦当劳对我来说无疑是最令我乐观的派息股票。我对麦当劳乐观的主要原因是创新。我相信，在未来三年、五年和十年里，这家公司将受益于创新方面的重大进展。推动这一创新的主要动力将是人工智能。
Let's start directly with McDonald's as the first dividend-paying stock I will highlight. McDonald's is undoubtedly the most optimistic dividend stock for me. The main reason for my optimism about McDonald's is innovation.
I believe this company will benefit from significant progress in innovation over the next three, five, and ten years. The primary driver of this innovation will be artificial intelligence.
从得来速服务窗口开始。我相信麦当劳可以在服务窗口中融入更多人工智能，改善客户体验，并降低每家门店的劳动力成本。此外，我认为麦当劳还可能受益于送餐机器人，这可以降低客户服务成本，并扩大每家门店的地理覆盖范围。
Starting from the drive-through service window . I believe McDonald's could integrate more artificial intelligence into the service window, improving the customer experience and reducing labor costs at each location.
In addition, I think McDonald's could benefit from food delivery robots, which could reduce customer service costs and expand the geographic reach of each location.
这些就是麦当劳让我感到兴奋的主要积极方面。但当然，也有需要考虑的风险，而麦当劳让我担心的最大风险之一，是消费者转向更健康选择的趋势，以及麦当劳缺乏可供选择的健康产品。
These are the main positive aspects of McDonald's that I am excited about. But of course, there are risks to consider , and one of the biggest risks that concerns me about McDonald's is the trend of consumers towards healthier options, and McDonald's lack of healthy options available .
随着时间的推移，我相信麦当劳能够转向提供更多健康选择，并以麦当劳的方式提供这些选择——成本低于竞争对手，并且在各门店之间更加一致。
Over time, I believe McDonald's can shift towards providing more healthy options, and offering these options in the McDonald's way – at a lower cost than its competitors, and in a more consistent manner across its locations.
因此，我认为对麦当劳而言，风险回报比是有吸引力的。顺便说一下，我计算出麦当劳股票的合理价值为 299 美元。对于麦当劳，我预计 2026 年将是下滑的一年，其自由现金流将降至 72.5 亿美元，低于去年的 85 亿美元。
Therefore, I believe the risk-reward equation is attractive for McDonald's. By the way, I calculated the fair value of a McDonald's stock at $299. For McDonald's, I expect a year of decline in 2026 with its free cash flow falling to $7.25 billion, down from $8.5 billion last year .
我预计麦当劳将在 2027 年恢复增长，其自由现金流将升至 85 亿美元，并在 2031 年达到 118 亿美元。
I expect McDonald's to return to growth in 2027, with its free cash flow rising to $8.5 billion, reaching $11.8 billion by 2031.
所以，我并不预期麦当劳在未来五年、未来十年，或者二十、三十、四十年会有非常大的增长。我预计麦当劳的自由现金流在未来十年左右增长相对缓慢，也许是低个位数或高个位数的百分比。
So, I don't expect very large growth for McDonald's over the next five years, or over the next decade, twenty, thirty, or forty years. I expect relatively slow growth in McDonald's free cash flow, perhaps a single-digit or high- single-digit percentage, over the next decade or so.
此后，这一增长将放缓，从 2035 年起自由现金流增长率约为 3%。再次强调，这并非令人兴奋的增长，但即便有这些较低的预期，该股在 237 美元的价格上，相对于我 299 美元的合理价值估计，仍显得被低估。
This growth then slows down to a free cash flow growth rate of about 3% from 2035 onwards. Again, not exciting growth, but even with those low expectations, the stock appears undervalued at $237 compared to my fair value estimate of $299.
我估计，麦当劳股票有可能在未来 12 到 18 个月内上涨超过 26%。
I estimate that there is a possibility for McDonald's stock to rise by more than 26% during the next 12 to 18 months.
高收入消费者过得很好，因为资产价格在上涨，由于股票、住房和资产价格上涨，他们的整体财富也在增加。人工智能加快了这一上层阶级资产估值上升的步伐。另一方面，低收入者——或者更确切地说，我应该说下层阶级、低收入者——可支配收入更少，因为他们的生活成本上涨速度快于工资增长速度。
因此，他们正在做出艰难的选择，这影响了我提到的那四家公司，因为它们是面向消费者的公司，并且随着消费者转向更便宜的选择而面临逆风。消费者正选择减少对这些产品的消费，因此这些逆风正在影响所有四家公司。
High-income consumers are doing very well because asset prices are rising, and they are seeing an increase in their overall wealth due to rising stock, home, and asset prices. Artificial intelligence contributes to accelerating the pace of asset valuations for that upper class.
On the other hand, low-income earners—or rather, I should say the lower class, low-income earners—have less disposable income because their living costs are increasing at a faster rate than their wages are growing.
Therefore, they are making difficult choices that affect these four companies I mentioned, because they are consumer-oriented companies and are facing headwinds as consumers move towards cheaper options .
Consumers are choosing to reduce their consumption of these products, and therefore these headwinds are affecting all four companies.
当然，如果你是一位寻求股息的投资者，你追求的是良好的回报，而这四家公司提供了有吸引力的回报，其中 General Mills 以 7.2% 领先，其次是 PepsiCo 的 4.5%、Procter & Gamble 的 3%，以及麦当劳的超过 3%。
Of course, if you are an investor looking for dividends, you are looking for a good return, and these four companies offer attractive returns, with General Mills leading the way at 7.2%, followed by PepsiCo at 4.5% , Procter & Gamble at 3%, and McDonald's at more than 3 %.
此外，我认为可以合理假设，这些公司在未来许多年里将继续提高其股息派发。因此，你不仅今年会获得一定数额的股息收入，明年很可能还会更多，后年还会更多，如此在未来许多年里持续下去。
Furthermore, I think it is reasonable to assume that these companies will continue to increase their dividend payouts for many years to come. Thus, not only will you receive a certain amount of dividend income this year, but it is likely to be even greater next year, and even greater the year after that, and so on for many years to come.
因此，我认为这四只是被低估的派息股票，投资者现在就可以买入，并且也许可以永远或持有数十年而无需卖出，只需享受股息收入。
Therefore, I believe these are four undervalued dividend stocks that investors can buy now and hold perhaps forever or for decades without having to sell them, and simply benefit from the dividend income .
这个频道对 $MCD 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。