Meta是强力买入,因其基本面有吸引力(高利润率、广告增长)且估值相对历史较低,尽管高资本支出/债务发行引发市场不安。
逐段跳播
像亚马逊、Alphabet 和 Meta 这样的公司都在积极发行债务。其中很多公司甚至自由现金流为负,比如 Meta。
Stocks like Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are all aggressively issuing debt. A lot of them are even going free cash flow negative, such as Meta.
现在,排在第二位的是 Meta,从基本面来看,它依然非常有吸引力。这是另一只交易价格低于其历史平均估值倍数的股票,而且它实际上是今年迄今为止表现最差的股票之一,至少是 Mag 7 股票中表现最差的,下跌了约 15%。
但三年总回报率仍然非常强劲。此外,他们最近刚开始支付股息,收益率虽然不高,但显然有很大的股息增长潜力,而且该股的利润率非常惊人,在前十大股票中是最高的。
Now, coming in at number two, we do have Meta who fundamentally, again, looks very attractive. This is another stock that's trading below its historic average valuation multiple, and this is actually one of the worst performing stocks, at least Mag 7 stocks year-to-date, down by about 15%. But, the three-year total return is still very strong. Now, they just recently started paying a dividend and the yield is small, but obviously there's a lot of dividend growth potential, and the margins on the stock are just incredible. It's the highest out of all the top 10 stocks.
那么,Meta 的情况如何?我们可以看到,在过去一年里,它下跌了约 25.62%。对于一只曾经交易价格接近每股 800 美元、现在交易价格在 560 美元左右的股票来说,这是一个相当大的回撤。
So, what's the case for Meta? We can see over the last year now, it's down by about 25.62%. That's a substantial drawback for a stock that was once trading at almost $800 a share, now trading at around 560.
我们需要了解 Meta 的整体商业模式。最重要的是,这是一项广告业务,而且在该领域表现非常好。最近一个季度,广告业务同比增长了 27%。对于一家已经如此庞大的公司来说,这样的营收增长令人难以置信。
最终,这之所以可能,是因为他们在三个变量上都表现出色。2026 年 6 月的日活跃用户平均为 36 亿,同比增长 3%,但再加上广告展示量同比增长 14%,平均每条广告价格同比增长 12%,这样就实现了 27% 的营收增长。
Well, again, we need to understand the overall business model for Meta. More than anything, this is an advertising business, and it's doing very well in that segment. The advertising segment grew 27% year-over-year in the recent quarter. Just mind-blowing revenue growth for a stock already this large. And ultimately, that's possible because they're firing on all three variables. Daily active users was 3.6 billion on average for June of 2026, an increase of 3% year-over-year, but combine that with the fact that ad impressions was up 14% year-over-year, and then the average price per ad was up 12% year-over-year. That's how you get to 27% revenue growth.
现在,当我们特别关注 Meta 的基本面时,有趣的是,如果我们跳到财务报表看看营收,你会注意到什么?营收放缓发生在 2022 年。这实际上是因为我们技术上进入了衰退。我这么说是什么意思?
我们经历了连续两个季度的负 GDP,通常在这种情况下首先发生的是广告收入回落。而这基本上就是 Meta 股票发生的情况。Meta 受到了广告收入回落的影响。所以,在分析商业模式时需要注意这一点。但显然,自那以后,营收已经激增。
Now, here's what's interesting when we look at the fundamentals for Meta in particular. If we jump over to the financial statements and take a look at revenue, what do you notice? The slowdown in revenue happened in 2022. And really, this is because we technically entered into a recession. What do I mean by that? Well, we had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, and typically, the first thing that happens when that occurs is we see a pullback in advertising revenue. And that's essentially what happened to Meta stock. Meta was impacted by pullback in advertising revenue. So, it is something to be aware of when you're analyzing the business model. But obviously, since then, revenue has surged.
现在,我们需要指出的是,市场对 Meta 的资本支出规模越来越感到不安,我们知道这一点是因为他们债务的利差越来越宽。如果你想知道市场对增加的资本支出和债务发行的真实看法,那么只需看看这些公司各自的债券表现。
收益率是多少?相对于美国国债的利差是多少?目前,Meta 明显高于同行,当然,SpaceX 和 Oracle 除外。
Now, what we do need to point out is the fact that the market is becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the amount of CapEx spending we're seeing from Meta, and we know this because the spread on their debt is getting wider and wider. If you want to know how the market really feels about increased CapEx spending and debt issuance, then just take a look at what the bonds for each of these companies are doing. What does the yield look like? What does the spread look like relative to Treasuries? And right now, Meta is significantly higher than their peers, obviously, with the exception of SpaceX and Oracle.
但结果就是,他们的远期市盈率明显低于历史水平。话虽如此,看到这只股票在 2022-2023 年左右变得如此便宜,也令人难以置信。
But as a result, they're trading at a P/E multiple on a forward-looking basis significantly lower than they have been historically speaking. With that being said, it's also mind-blowing to see just how cheap this stock got around 2022-2023.
超级投资者绝对仍然喜欢微软、Meta 和 Visa 在这个价格水平。微软和 Meta 的交易价格仍然远低于历史估值倍数。
Super investors absolutely love Microsoft, Meta, and Visa at these prices still. Microsoft and Meta are still trading well below the historic valuation multiples.
但这些大多在历史上是轻资本业务,现在由于微软和 Meta 的资本支出而不那么轻了,但这些公司能产生高投入资本回报率,并拥有惊人的毛利率。
But these are for the most part historically capital light businesses, not so much now with the CapEx spending from Microsoft and Meta, but companies that generate high return on invested capital and have incredible gross profit margins.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。