Dividendology 对 $META 的判断变化
像亚马逊、Alphabet 和 Meta 这样的公司都在积极发行债务。其中很多公司甚至自由现金流为负，比如 Meta。
Stocks like Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are all aggressively issuing debt. A lot of them are even going free cash flow negative, such as Meta.
现在，排在第二位的是 Meta，从基本面来看，它依然非常有吸引力。这是另一只交易价格低于其历史平均估值倍数的股票，而且它实际上是今年迄今为止表现最差的股票之一，至少是 Mag 7 股票中表现最差的，下跌了约 15%。
但三年总回报率仍然非常强劲。此外，他们最近刚开始支付股息，收益率虽然不高，但显然有很大的股息增长潜力，而且该股的利润率非常惊人，在前十大股票中是最高的。
Now, coming in at number two, we do have Meta who fundamentally, again, looks very attractive. This is another stock that's trading below its historic average valuation multiple, and this is actually one of the worst performing stocks, at least Mag 7 stocks year-to-date, down by about 15%. But, the three-year total return is still very strong. Now, they just recently started paying a dividend and the yield is small, but obviously there's a lot of dividend growth potential, and the margins on the stock are just incredible. It's the highest out of all the top 10 stocks.
那么，Meta 的情况如何？我们可以看到，在过去一年里，它下跌了约 25.62%。对于一只曾经交易价格接近每股 800 美元、现在交易价格在 560 美元左右的股票来说，这是一个相当大的回撤。
So, what's the case for Meta? We can see over the last year now, it's down by about 25.62%. That's a substantial drawback for a stock that was once trading at almost $800 a share, now trading at around 560.
我们需要了解 Meta 的整体商业模式。最重要的是，这是一项广告业务，而且在该领域表现非常好。最近一个季度，广告业务同比增长了 27%。对于一家已经如此庞大的公司来说，这样的营收增长令人难以置信。
最终，这之所以可能，是因为他们在三个变量上都表现出色。2026 年 6 月的日活跃用户平均为 36 亿，同比增长 3%，但再加上广告展示量同比增长 14%，平均每条广告价格同比增长 12%，这样就实现了 27% 的营收增长。
Well, again, we need to understand the overall business model for Meta. More than anything, this is an advertising business, and it's doing very well in that segment. The advertising segment grew 27% year-over-year in the recent quarter. Just mind-blowing revenue growth for a stock already this large. And ultimately, that's possible because they're firing on all three variables. Daily active users was 3.6 billion on average for June of 2026, an increase of 3% year-over-year, but combine that with the fact that ad impressions was up 14% year-over-year, and then the average price per ad was up 12% year-over-year. That's how you get to 27% revenue growth.
现在，当我们特别关注 Meta 的基本面时，有趣的是，如果我们跳到财务报表看看营收，你会注意到什么？营收放缓发生在 2022 年。这实际上是因为我们技术上进入了衰退。我这么说是什么意思？
我们经历了连续两个季度的负 GDP，通常在这种情况下首先发生的是广告收入回落。而这基本上就是 Meta 股票发生的情况。Meta 受到了广告收入回落的影响。所以，在分析商业模式时需要注意这一点。但显然，自那以后，营收已经激增。
Now, here's what's interesting when we look at the fundamentals for Meta in particular. If we jump over to the financial statements and take a look at revenue, what do you notice? The slowdown in revenue happened in 2022. And really, this is because we technically entered into a recession. What do I mean by that? Well, we had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, and typically, the first thing that happens when that occurs is we see a pullback in advertising revenue. And that's essentially what happened to Meta stock. Meta was impacted by pullback in advertising revenue. So, it is something to be aware of when you're analyzing the business model. But obviously, since then, revenue has surged.
现在，我们需要指出的是，市场对 Meta 的资本支出规模越来越感到不安，我们知道这一点是因为他们债务的利差越来越宽。如果你想知道市场对增加的资本支出和债务发行的真实看法，那么只需看看这些公司各自的债券表现。
收益率是多少？相对于美国国债的利差是多少？目前，Meta 明显高于同行，当然，SpaceX 和 Oracle 除外。
Now, what we do need to point out is the fact that the market is becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the amount of CapEx spending we're seeing from Meta, and we know this because the spread on their debt is getting wider and wider. If you want to know how the market really feels about increased CapEx spending and debt issuance, then just take a look at what the bonds for each of these companies are doing. What does the yield look like? What does the spread look like relative to Treasuries? And right now, Meta is significantly higher than their peers, obviously, with the exception of SpaceX and Oracle.
但结果就是，他们的远期市盈率明显低于历史水平。话虽如此，看到这只股票在 2022-2023 年左右变得如此便宜，也令人难以置信。
But as a result, they're trading at a P/E multiple on a forward-looking basis significantly lower than they have been historically speaking. With that being said, it's also mind-blowing to see just how cheap this stock got around 2022-2023.
超级投资者绝对仍然喜欢微软、Meta 和 Visa 在这个价格水平。微软和 Meta 的交易价格仍然远低于历史估值倍数。
Super investors absolutely love Microsoft, Meta, and Visa at these prices still. Microsoft and Meta are still trading well below the historic valuation multiples.
但这些大多在历史上是轻资本业务，现在由于微软和 Meta 的资本支出而不那么轻了，但这些公司能产生高投入资本回报率，并拥有惊人的毛利率。
But these are for the most part historically capital light businesses, not so much now with the CapEx spending from Microsoft and Meta, but companies that generate high return on invested capital and have incredible gross profit margins.
现在，我们来看Meta，它在2026年迄今经历了令人难以置信的波动，但过去一年下跌了22.3%，年初至今下跌了10%。
Now, we come to Meta who has seen some incredible volatility so far in 2026, but in the last year down by 22.3% and year-to-date down by 10%
而且Meta股票发生了什么并不是什么秘密。人们对增加的资本支出支出有很多担忧。例如，看看股息分解表。是的，Meta支付的股息不多，但你需要真正注意的是，在2025年，我们看到自由现金流实际上下降了。
and it's really not any secret what's been going on with Meta stock. There's a lot of concerns with the increased CapEx spending. For example, look at the dividend breakdown sheet. Yes, Meta doesn't pay much in dividends, but what you really need to pay attention to is the fact that in 2025, we saw free cash flow actually decline.
事实上，如果我们更仔细地看看自由现金流分析表，我们会过来在这里输入Meta。记住，就像我们之前说的，自由现金流就是经营现金流减去资本支出，而Meta的经营现金流在过去三年中持续大幅增长。
因此，业务实际产生的核心现金流表现非常好。然而，资本支出增长更快，这就是为什么我们看到自由现金流从2024年到2025年罕见地下降。
In fact, if we take a much closer look at this on the free cash flow analysis sheet, we'll come over here and plug in Meta. Remember, like we stated earlier, free cash flow is simply operating cash flows minus capital expenditures and operating cash flows for Meta have continued to grow significantly in the last 3 years. So, the core cash flows that the business is actually generating is doing exceptionally well. However, CapEx spending is growing at an even faster rate, which is why we saw a rare decrease in free cash flow from 2024 to 2025.
但有趣的是。我们实际上还没有达到Meta资本支出支出的拐点。事实上，仔细看看分析师的预期。是的，2026年的资本支出将达到1395亿，这很难理解，但到2027-2028年，你将看到大约2000亿美元的资本支出。
But, here's what's interesting. We really haven't hit the inflection point when it comes to CapEx spending for Meta yet. In fact, take a close look at what analysts are expecting. Yes, 2026 CapEx spending will be 139.5 billion, which is pretty hard to wrap your head around, but by 2027-2028, you're looking at about $200 billion of CapEx spent.
现在，我们需要稍微换个角度来看。所以，如果我们跳到盈利能力表，你会看到在2025年，他们创造了约2000亿美元的收入。所以，基本上，他们明年将把几乎所有的2025年收入都花在资本支出上。
他们全力投入人工智能竞赛。他们在奋力一搏。要么全有，要么全无。
Now, we need to put that into a little bit of perspective. So, if we jump over to our profitability sheet, what you'll see is in 2025, they generated around $200 billion in revenue. So, essentially, they're spending almost all of their 2025 revenue by next year on capital expenditures. They are all in on the AI race. They're swinging for the fences. It's all or nothing.
现实情况是，任何时候资本支出增加、资本支出激进、投资激进，你都可以通过观察债券市场来了解市场对这项投资的真实看法，而很多股票投资者并不这样做。但请看利差。我们在这里可以看到Meta以灰色显示。
他们的利差正在扩大，尤其是在过去一个月里，正如你在这里看到的。
Now, the reality anytime is you have increased CapEx spending, aggressive CapEx spending, aggressive investments. You can tell how the market really feels about the investment being made by looking at the bond market, something not a lot of equity investors do. But, take a look at the spreads. We can see Meta in the gray right here. Their spreads are widening, particularly in the last month alone, as you can see right here.
这告诉我们什么？信用违约互换就像是为公司无法偿还债务而购买的保险。因此，利差上升表明投资者要求更多的补偿来承担这种信用风险。最终，随着公司增加借款并投入巨额资金用于AI基础设施，市场对Meta债务质量的信心越来越低。
Now, what is this telling us? Well, a credit default swap is like insurance against a company failing to repay its debt. So, a rising spread indicates that investors are demanding more compensation to take on that credit risk. So, ultimately, the market is becoming increasingly less confident in the quality of Meta's debt as the company increases borrowing while committing enormous amounts of capital to AI infrastructure.
所以，最终，这是坏消息。这是你可以说市场对Meta担忧的唯一原因。但是，看涨的理由是什么？看涨的理由是Meta仍然以惊人的速度增长。营收同比增长27%，达到27%。这绝对令人难以置信，尤其是对于一家已经拥有绝对惊人利润率（去年毛利率约为82%）的股票来说。
So, ultimately, that's the bad news. That's the sole reason you could argue that the market has concerns for Meta. But, what's the bull case? Well, the bull case is that Meta is still growing at an exceptional rate. Revenue year-over-year was 27% up 27%. That's just absolutely mind-blowing, particularly for a stock that already has absolutely incredible margins, about a 82% gross profit ratio as of last year.
他们有更多人在使用这款应用。他们展示更多广告，并且每条广告赚得更多。他们三个引擎都在全力运转。
They have more people using the app. They're showing more ads, and they're making more per ad. They're firing on all three cylinders.
所以，再次强调，当你查看敏感性分析时，前瞻性回报看起来确实有吸引力。你会看到预计每股收益复合年增长率为14.45%。
So, again, this is a scenario when you look at the sensitivity analysis, the forward-looking returns do look attractive. What you'll see is projected EPS CAGR at 14.45%.
所以，有趣的是。是的，他们的交易价格低于历史市场平均估值倍数，但让我们假设他们保持在这个水平。我们假设，尽管他们再次交易价格显著低于历史市场平均水平，但即使他们保持在这个估值倍数，前瞻性回报看起来也非常强劲。
So, here's what's interesting. Yes, they're trading below their historic market average valuation multiple, but let's just assume that they stay at that level. We'll assume despite the fact, again, they're trading significantly below their historic market averages, but even if they stay at this valuation multiple, forward-looking returns look incredibly strong.
所以，是的，这告诉我们两件事。Meta现在是在挥棒击出本垒打。如果他们的资本支出增加，如果他们承担的资本，如果他们在这些资本支出上获得良好的投资回报率（这显然听起来很明显），那么这只股票的前瞻性回报将是天文数字。
So, yes, this tells us two things. Meta right now is a swing for a home run. This will either end up being an incredible opportunity if their increased CapEx spending, if the capital they're taking on, if they get a good ROI on this CapEx, which obviously sounds quite obvious, then the forward-looking returns are just going to be astronomical for this stock.
所以，再次强调，Meta在这些价格上是否有趣？我确实认为是的。这当然是一个值得密切关注的情况，但我确实认为已经有迹象表明，增加的资本支出和对AI的投资开始得到回报，因为我们看到他们开始从每条展示广告中产生更高的收入，更智能地展示更多广告。与此同时，更多人正在使用他们的平台。
So, again, is Meta interesting at these prices? I actually do think it is. It's certainly a situation to watch closely, but I do think there's already signs of the increased CapEx spending, of the investment into AI are starting to pay off as we see them start to generate higher revenue per ad shown, more ads being intelligently shown. All the while, more people are using their platforms.
如果你是股息增长投资者，请将这只股票列入你的观察名单。
If you're a dividend growth investor, keep this one on your watchlist.