MRVL 被高估，合理价值 207 美元对现价 266 美元，意味着 12-18 个月内约有 22% 的下行空间；说话者不持有也不买入。
逐段跳播
许多这类AI公司，包括Broadcom和Marvell，正被吸引过来，因为它们有望成为AI热潮中最大的受益者之一。
many of these AI companies , including Broadcom and Marvell, are being drawn to, as they are poised to be among the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom .
与此同时，Marvel经营于类似的类别。它们生产一些为特定应用定制的集成电路。Marvell 从连接数据中心中获益最多，它把这些组件整合在一起，作为一个大型整体协同运作，为客户创造价值。
Meanwhile, Marvel operates in a similar category. They make some integrated circuits that are customized for specific applications. Marvell benefits most from connecting data centers, bringing all these components together to work as a large group to deliver value to customers.
市场对 Marvell 产品和服务的需求也在显著上升，这促使 Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋提出，Marvell 有可能成为下一家市值万亿美元的半导体公司。
Demand for Marvell's products and services is also rising significantly, prompting Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to suggest that Marvell could become the next trillion-dollar semiconductor company.
Marvell 目前的市值不到 3000 亿美元，因此那将意味着相较当前水平出现巨大的增长。
Marvel's market capitalization is currently less than $ 300 billion, so that would be a huge increase from what it is today.
与此同时，Marvell 只实现了这一营业利润率的一小部分，约为三分之一，即 16.8%，但 Marvell 的营业利润率也在改善。
Meanwhile, Marvell is realizing a small fraction of this operating margin, about a third at 16.8%, but Marvell's operating margin is also improving.
正如我们此前所见，Marvell 是一家规模小得多的公司，因此有理由认为，随着它的成长，其盈利能力可以进一步扩大，因为它将受益于规模经济。
As we have seen previously, Marvell is a much smaller-scale company, so it is reasonable to assume that as it grows, its profitability can expand further as it benefits from economies of scale.
幸运的是，Broadcom 和 Marvell 采用的是相对轻资产的商业模式。它们将大部分制造流程外包。与此同时，Marvell 的 12.61% 几乎达到了该公司的加权平均资本成本，大约只有 Broadcom 所实现水平的一半。
Fortunately, Broadcom and Marvel operate on a relatively asset-light business model. They outsource most of their manufacturing processes. Meanwhile, Marvell's 12.61% is almost at the company's weighted average cost of capital, which is roughly half of what Broadcom achieves.
Marvell 股票的预期市盈率为 39。按同一指标衡量，这超过 Broadcom 18 倍估值的一倍以上。我认为，Marvell 之所以以更高的估值交易，是因为其未来几年的增长前景大于 Broadcom。
Marvell shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 39. This is more than double Broadcom's valuation of 18 according to the same metric. Now, I believe the reason Marvell is trading at a higher valuation is that its growth prospects in the coming years are greater than Broadcom's.
短期内，由于 Marvell 是从一个更低的基数起步，其利润率、收入、投入资本回报率和现金流都远低于 Broadcom，这使它拥有大得多的增长空间。
In the near term, since Marvell is starting from a lower base, its margins, revenues, return on invested capital, and cash flows are much lower than Broadcom, giving it much more room to grow.
出于这一原因，投资者给予 Marvell 估值溢价，因为其近期增长前景好于 Broadcom。但它是否值得超过 Broadcom 一倍以上的溢价？我对此并不完全信服。
For this reason, investors place a price premium on Marvell because its near-term growth prospects are better than Broadcom. But is it worth a premium of more than double Broadcom's price? I am not entirely convinced by this .
至于 Marvell，我计算出的合理价值为 207。当前市场价格为 266。因此，我计算出 Marvell 在未来 12 到 18 个月内将下跌 22%。
As for Marvell, I calculated a fair value of 207. The current market price is 266. Therefore, I calculated a 22% decline over the next 12 to 18 months for Marvell.
比较 Marvell 和 Broadcom，Broadcom 在历史上提供了更好的业务前景，但展望未来，Marvell 提供更好的上行潜力。
Comparing Marvell and Broadcom, Broadcom has historically offered better business prospects , but looking ahead, Marvell offers better upswing potential.
我不持有 Marvell 股票。我对以接近这些价格的任何水平买入 Marvell 股票都不感兴趣。
I do not own Marvel shares. I am not interested in buying Marvell shares at any level close to these prices.
观察点
这个频道对 $MRVL 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。