MS的质量优于LVMH（稳定的40%利润率、强大品牌），但估值高达35倍；目前在同行中排名最高。
逐段跳播
我实际上也考虑过再看一下LVMH和MS，就像奢侈品剧本以及它们表现如何。
I actually thought about also looking at LVMH and MS again sort of as like the luxury playbook and how they are doing.
顺便说一下，我们也看MS和Nike，例如，MS是一个接近的比较对象，对吧？所以，如果你看它们的数字，它们在增长方面并不是负的。但它们也显著地或比过去增长得慢得多。我认为这通常是你在所有这些公司身上看到的情况，这在某种程度上对它们俩都是好事，因为这意味着不一定只是LVMH品牌不再受欢迎了。
MS也是如此。所以我认为这向我表明，整个行业目前都在挣扎。
and by the way, we also look at MS and Nike, for example, and MS is kind of a close comp, right? So, if you look at their numbers, um, they're not in in the negative in terms of growth. Um, but they're also significantly or growing significantly slower than they have to in the past or have in the past. And I think that's generally something that you see with all of those companies, which to some extent is a good thing for both of them because it means it's not necessarily just that LVMH brands um are not in demand anymore. And just the same thing for for MS. So I think to me it shows that there's just in the entire industry they're currently struggling.
我没有完全理解的是，在很长一段时间里，尤其是在2020年、2021年，当这些公司表现很好时，总是有这样的说法：奢侈品公司不像时尚那样具有周期性，因为富人总是花钱，没有衰退之类的。
我认为这是我们在过去几年里还没有看到的，当市场不再那么好时，例如，这些公司实际上确实挣扎了，你知道，它们的增长在放缓。我认为这就是为什么我一直更喜欢MS一点，我们在节目中讨论过，MS更集中，也更令人向往。
MS实际上瞄准的是全球财富前1%的人群，而LVMH则更大众化一些，更多是关于如果你刚刚得到梦想的工作，也许你会买一个LVMH包，这对MS来说就不那么容易。所以我觉得LVMH与经济联系更紧密，你在数字中确实能看到这一点。
Um what I didn't fully understand I got to say that is for the longest time especially in like 2020 2021 when the companies were doing very well. It was always like the narrative that luxury companies are not as cyclical as fashion as otherwise because you know the wealthy people always spend there's no recession or anything and I think this is something that we have not seen yet like in the last couple of years um where the market didn't work out as well anymore for example um those companies actually did um struggle and you know they the growth was slowing down and I think to me and that's why I always liked MS a bit more and we discussed this in in the episodes is that MS is more concentrated um and it's also more desirable MS is actually going for like the top.1% of wealth globally and LVMH is a bit more um desirable where it's a bit more about you know if if you just land your new dream job for example um maybe you will buy an LVMH back which is just not that easy to do with MS. So I feel like um LVMH is more tied to the economy and you do see that in the numbers.
我还认为，如果你接受它们是周期性公司的事实，而我们是价值投资者，现在可能是买入它们的最佳时机。它们看起来最难看，没有人想持有它们。但我的意思是，我认为这是LVMH首次或几十年来首次连续两年负增长。
MS正在放缓。所以，我不知道。我觉得我可能想再次为节目看看它们。这不是因为我觉得它们应该只是D级，例如。我确实认为它们现在可能比长期更具吸引力。
Um, I also think that if you just accept the fact that they are cyclical companies and we are value investors, probably now is the best time to buy them. Um, they look the ugliest, nobody wants to own them. Um, but I mean, I think it's the first time either ever or in decades that LVMH is two consecutive years of negative growth. Um, MS is slowing down. So, I don't know. I feel like again, I probably want to look at them again for for an episode. Um, and that's not because I feel like they should only be a Dtier, for example. Um, I do think they might just be um more attractively valued right now than in the long term.
我应该说，MS你在这里看到它的倍数列表是35。所以它仍然相当高。但我还应该说，如果你比较营业利润，你会看到MS的营业利润，对吧？现在有点停滞。但总的来说它们仍在增长。如果你将其与LVMH相比，它们下降得相当快。
所以你会看到那里的主要原因，例如，是利润率。LVMH的营业利润率和现金流利润率约为20%。如果你看MS，例如，它要高得多。你仍然有40%的利润率和30%的现金流利润率，而且它们是稳定的。这就是为什么它们仍然赚更多的钱。
And I should say that I mean MS you see it here like the multiple list is at 35. Um, so it's still pretty um pretty hefty. But I should also say if you compare for example the operating profits um you see MS operating profits, right? It's a bit stagnant right now. Um but generally they're still growing. If you compare that to LVMH, they were declining quite quickly. Um so you do see um the primary reason there for example is the margins. Um so margins for LVMH are at about 20% operating and cash flow. If you look at that for MS for example it is significantly higher. You still have 40% margins 30% cash flow margins and they are stable. Um which is why they still earn significantly more money.
我认为是LVMH。是的。CD和……这很难。这很难，因为爱马仕是质量更好的业务。但这可能是一把双刃剑。但是，你支付的估值，你知道，20倍市盈率对比35倍市盈率，几乎抵消了它们之间的差异。
我不知道。我可能会把它们都坚定地放在C档，或者如果你想把爱马仕放高一点，我觉得也可以。
What you would have >> I think LVMH. Yeah. CD and >> it's tough. It's tough though because like Hermes is the is a better quality business. >> But then it could cut both ways. Well, but but then the valuation you're paying, you know, 20 times earnings versus first versus 35 times earnings almost kind of nullifies the difference between them. I I I don't know. I would probably put them both like firmly in C or or maybe if you want Hermes a little higher, I think that's fine, too.
我一直更喜欢大众市场一点。我的意思是，这其实是个好评论。我过去持有过LVMH和MS，但我对奢侈品行业依赖的人为稀缺性从未感到完全舒服。我觉得这是一个我有点理解的点，但你看MS的历史，以及这种模式持续了多久，我觉得有些品牌消费者就是接受这一点，我认为MS就是其中之一。
>> I always like the mass a bit more. I mean, this actually a good comment. I've owned LVMH and MS in the past, but I've never been 100% comfortable the artificial scarcity that the luxury industry relies on. I think this is a point where I kind of I kind of get it, but then you look at the history of MS and for how long that worked um that I kind of feel like there are brands where consumers just accept that and I think MS is one of them.
是的。是的。让我看看。买了好几个MS的包，但他们仍然难以买到，所以他们有巨大的增长储备。嗯，这就是你看到那些包有多难买的方式，对吧？这就是为什么我相信MS可能在这里，而LVMH略低。
嗯，LVMH就像一个多元化的ETF，但Vuitton远低于MS。我是这么看的。我认为有些人，肖恩，你在我们的节目中也说过，更喜欢多元化，我也理解这一点。
Yeah. Yeah. Let's see here. Bought several MS bags, but they still play hard to get, so they have a massive reserve of growth. Well, well, that's that's how you see how difficult it is to get one of those backs, right? That's why I believe MS is probably here and LVMH is slightly lower. Um, LVMH is a diversified ETF like, but Vuitton is way below MS. That's how I see it. I think there are people, I think Sean, you also said that in our episode, that prefer the diversification more, and I also get that.
对我来说，如果我有类似几百年的记录，对于集中风险来说，那也是……目前例如MS主要销售包，我认为这可能在某些时候结束，我不认为这很可能，但有可能，但如果品牌总体上仍然完好，我认为他们可以卖其他东西，不一定非得是包，那是MS目前出名的原因，但我认为只要品牌强大，它不需要是包，所以这就是为什么我不太担心品牌。
>> to me if I have like a track equivalent of like hundreds of years um for concentrated bad it's also that I mean currently for example MS is primarily selling bags um I I think that could at some point maybe come to an end I don't think it's likely but it could but if the brand generally is still intact I think they could just sell something else um it doesn't need to be backed that's what MS is currently known for but I think as long as the brand is like strong it doesn't need to be backed so that's why I'm not too concerned um about the brand
好的。所以，目前它是MS、LVMH和耐克中评级最高的股票。嗯，这很能说明问题。
All right. So, it's the highest rated stock right now out of MS, LVMH, and Nike. Um which is which is quite telling.
这个频道对 $MS 的历次判断
The Intrinsic Value Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。