美光科技是周期性股票，估值不确定（范围556-1016美元）；作为长期投资者应避免，但可进行短期交易。
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现在让我们看看另一种非常不同类型的股票。一个非常受欢迎的是美光，股票代码为MU。所以如果你看美光，问题是如何估值这只股票？再次，你使用哪种方法？我们能否使用贴现自由现金流方法，这是我最喜欢的？
我们不能，因为这家企业没有持续增加自由现金流或持续增加经营现金流的记录。
Now let's take a look at another very different type of stock. One that's very popular is micron ticker symbol MU. So if you look at micron the question would be how do you value the stock? Again, which method do you use? Can we use the discounted free free cash flow method, which is my favorite? We cannot because this business doesn't have a history of consistently increasing free cash flow or consistently increasing cash from operations.
那么，如果我们查看财务数据，点击财务数据。同样，你可以查看柱状图或折线图，随你选择。所以，看看这里。看橙色的经营现金流历史。它上升，下降，上升，下降，现在一路升到那里。所以，它现在处于高位。因此，它非常不稳定。它非常周期性。
So, if we look at the financials, click on financials. And uh again, you can look at the bar chart or the line chart, up to you. So, uh take a look over here. Look at the history of the operating cash flow in orange. It goes up, it goes down, it goes up, it goes down, and now it's all the way up there. So, it is at a high right here. So, it is very inconsistent. It is very cyclical.
同样，如果你看自由现金流，它是否像万事达卡那样持续增长？不，它非常不稳定。
Same thing if you look at the free cash flow, is it consistently increasing like Mastercard? No, it is very inconsistent.
看深绿色的自由现金流。你可以看到它上升，下降，上升，负值，上升，持平，然后上升。所以当它如此不稳定时，未来5年、10年、15年的自由现金流会是多少？我们不知道。它非常不可预测。
Uh, look at the free cash flow in dark green. You can see it goes up, it goes down, up, negative, up, flat, and goes up. So when it's so inconsistent, what would be the free cash flow in the next 5, 10, 15 years? We don't know. It's very unpredictable.
同样，乐观者会说，因为它现在表现很好，所以会继续上涨。但悲观者会说，不，从历史上看，它一直具有很强的周期性。所以，你知道，它很快就会开始回落。那么哪个是正确的？说实话，没有人知道，因为我们无法预测未来。我们所能做的就是回顾过去的一致性。
Again, optimists would say that it will keep going up because now it's doing so well. But pessimists would say, no, historically, it's been very cyclical. So, you know, it's going to start coming down again. So which is correct? Honestly, no one knows because we can't predict the future. All we can do is we just look at the past consistency.
但关键是，由于这种不稳定性，我们不能使用贴现自由现金流方法，因为如果你使用，内在价值会是多少？看看。内在价值将是每股317,000美元，这很疯狂。
But the point is because of the inconsistency, we cannot use the discounted free cash [snorts] flow method because if you did, uh what would the intrinsic value be? Check it out. The intrinsic value would be a crazy uh $317,000 per share.
如果你使用这种方法，并使用faxet的共识估计给出的预测，即这家公司未来5年每年增长99%，长期每年增长148%，那么这就是内在价值。
That is the intrinsic value if you use this method and if you use the projections given by the consensus estimates by faxet where they are projecting that this company will grow 99% a year for the next 5 years and long run you'll grow 148% a year.
faxet 的估计预测这家公司未来 5 年每年增长 99%，长期每年增长 148%。我不知道你怎么想，但对我来说，我认为这些预测有点过于乐观。
estimates by faxet where they are projecting that this company will grow 99% a year for the next 5 years and long run you'll grow 148% a year. I don't know about you but to me I think those projections are a bit too optimistic.
我不知道你怎么想，但对我来说，这些预测有点过于乐观。所以对于利润或经营现金流非常周期性的公司，更合适的估值方法是什么？通常，对于这类公司，我们使用平均市销率方法或平均市盈率方法。
I don't know about you but to me I think those projections are a bit too optimistic. So for companies that have got very cyclical profits or very cyclical cash from operations uh what's a more appropriate valuation method to use? Well, normally for these kind of companies we use a mean price to sales ratio method or a mean price to earnings ratio method.
那么这种方法如何使用或如何计算？基本上，我们取 5 年平均市盈率。所以我们取过去 5 年的平均市盈率，然后将该比率乘以当前每股收益，得到内在价值。
So how is this method uh used or how is it calculated? Basically what we do is we take the 5-year average PE ratio. So we take the PE ratio uh we take the average of the last 5 years and then we multiply the ratio by the current earnings per share to get the intrinsic value.
如果你不想手动计算，这里已经为你计算好了，即不包括非经常性收入的平均市盈率。
Now if you don't want to do it manually it's all calculated for you over here the mean PE ratio without uh nonrecurring income.
所以使用这种方法，取5年平均市盈率乘以当前每股收益，我们得到估值556，这是Oracle Value保守使用的。
So using this method taking the 5-year average PE multiplying by the current earnings per share that gives us a valuation of 556 uh which is what the Oracle value uses conservatively.
因此你可以看到Oracle Value实际上是5.56。如果你想知道这是从哪里来的，它是排除非经常性收入后的平均市盈率。
Hence you can see the oracle value uh is actually 5.56. If you're wondering where this comes from it is the mean price to earnings ratio without uh nonrecurring income.
然而，如果你认为美光不再是一家周期性企业，未来销售和利润将大幅增长，那么你可以使用例如市销增长比方法。如果你使用这种估值方法，你得到的内在价值是1美元，呃，16美元。
However, if you think that Micron is no longer a cyclical business, that for the future the sales and profits will grow significantly, then you could use for example the price to sales growth ratio method. And if you use this valuation method, you get the intrinsic value of $1, uh $16.
所以这就是美光的内在价值，如果你认为它将在未来5年、10年、15年继续大幅增长。但同样，如果你认为美光将继续是一家周期性公司，一旦内存芯片供应缓解，利润将下降，那么美光将价值556美元。
So that's the intrinsic value of Micron if you think that it would continue to grow significantly for the next 5 10 15 years. But again if you think that Micron will continue to be a cyclical company where the profits will drop once the uh supply of memory chips uh ease then Micron will be worth $556.
这就是我们所说的估值区间。所以你可以看到像 Micron 这样的公司，你知道，它可能值 500 美元，也可能值 1,000 美元。所以如果它值 1,000 美元，那么以今天的价格，它仍然被低估。
但如果你认为它值 500 美元，那么以今天的价格，它被严重高估。所以这些公司非常非常不确定。因此，作为长期投资者，我倾向于避免这类公司，因为我不确定它值 500 还是 1,000？
我真的不确定，但我可以通过期权作为短期交易者从中赚钱。
So that is what we call the valuation range. So you can see companies like Micron, you know, it could be worth $500, could be worth $1,000. So if it's worth $1,000, then at today's price, it is still undervalued. But if you think it's worth $500, then at today's price is way overvalued. So these are companies that are very very I'm more uncertain. And hence, as a long-term investor, I tend to avoid companies like this because I'm not sure is it worth 500, is it worth 1,000? I'm really not sure, but I can make money from it as a short-term trader using options.
所以你可以看到像美光这样的公司，它可能价值500美元，也可能价值1,000美元。所以如果它价值1,000美元，那么以今天的价格，它仍然被低估。但如果你认为它价值500美元，那么以今天的价格，它被高估了。
So you can see companies like Micron, you know, it could be worth $500, could be worth $1,000. So if it's worth $1,000, then at today's price, it is still undervalued. But if you think it's worth $500, then at today's price is way overvalued.
所以这些是我更不确定的公司。因此，作为长期投资者，我倾向于避免这样的公司，因为我不确定它值500还是1,000？我真的不确定，但我可以通过期权作为短期交易者从中赚钱。
So these are companies that are very very I'm more uncertain. And hence, as a long-term investor, I tend to avoid companies like this because I'm not sure is it worth 500, is it worth 1,000? I'm really not sure, but I can make money from it as a short-term trader using options.
因此，你可以看到，在两者之间，Oracle Value 通常采用更保守的估值。因此，它使用 500 美元而不是 1,000 美元。
So, you can see that between the two, Oracle Value usually takes the more conservative valuation. Hence, it uses $500 instead of $1,000.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西，一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次，我们不合并，也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Adam Khoo 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。