MU 全部观点

So, you know, we'll talk about Micron Technology because that's more exciting for you guys here on the YouTube. So here we're going to talk about interesting and fun, Micron.

So, here's Micron. If you sell a put option, you can see here sell put. And if you go out significantly far, you know, June 2027, 302 days out. Okay, that gives you a lot of time. And this option is going to have more premium than 121 days.

Micron has high. So, check this out. 500 strike price. That is so far away from the current price. That's almost half off. That's like literally we're almost at half off territory. Pretty insane. Very insane to be honest. To be clear, this is almost half off of where the stock is trading at.

Micron Technology, it's not even a stock that I've really talked about too much on this channel. It's not a stock that I love, but very clearly you can see how you don't have to be an expert or to follow lots of news outlets or YouTube videos or even do a lot of research.

I do like Micron and at $500 per share, great. Amazing. I don't have to second guess, hey, the P ratio is low, but maybe this stock has some tough times ahead or maybe things are priced in.

So again, that's that's pretty much half of the real cost of where Micron is trading at. So, here's kind of like what this actually looks like and what I'll be doing. So most people buy them. Well, you can also sell them. Okay? Okay, that's the simple most straightforward story to what investors can start doing to collect upfront income when you sell a LEAP option. It's just selling a put option. Very, very similar. Okay, so I'll show you what selling a put option looks like.

So, leverage is not free. Whenever you sell options, there's obviously risk involved. So, I want to get that out of the way. And I'm not a financial adviser, but leverage is not free. Okay, so any option is going to provide or be utilizing some form of leverage. And in this case, when we sell leap option, you will see how this uh strategy is a lot more capital efficient. Okay, that's the key term, capital efficiency, because you're going to be putting up uh a little bit less capital than it would take to buy 100 shares.

So, here's kind of the example. And this price might change a little bit because took me several days to make this presentation. Took me some good time, but um if you go out to January 2028, which is a lot of time, I get it. Not a lot of us want to sit in our hands.

So if you look at something longer term like January 2028, the further out that you go, the more the market will pay you to wait, which is actually pretty nice because you're getting paid to wait.

So, check this out. 500 strike price. That is so far away from the current price. That's almost half off. That's like literally we're almost at half off territory. Pretty insane. Very insane to be honest. To be clear, this is almost half off of where the stock is trading at. And when you take into account the premium, it basically is, right? Cuz we have a $500 strike price here. But here, the bid and ask, you know, 60, let's just call it 60 and change. Okay? So when you actually factor in the amount that you get paid here in premium, the premium is $6,000. Okay, it's $60 per contract or $6,000. Okay, so that actually creates a break even price that is far below 500. The break even price is far below 500. So instead of being 500, okay, this is going to be 500US 60, which is 440. And 440 is is less than half of the stock price at the moment. So, less than half. That's a 50% discount. I mean, how insane is this?

So, here's what um here's what I kind of just showed and what I just did. It's just one contract, one strike price, one date, which is very very long-term. January 2028, 500 strike price. So here we have the range of possibilities. 938 is today's price. We have multiple different prices that the stock could end up at. Strike price of 500. Okay, we get $6,000 of profit. And our break even is $439. Now it can land anywhere here and if it ends here it'll expire worthless. So we saw the current price today is you know 938. Okay so this is the range of possibilities right you can see here it could end up anywhere here right I mean the stock could go up to,100 it could go down and crash down to 400. I mean it could go less than that but this is kind of the range of possibilities here. Okay. Now it has to fall a long way to reach the break even and actually has a long way to just reach the strike price. So if it falls 47% it'll reach the strike of $500. Okay. But even more interesting is we have a $60, you know, per contract. And I just took the bid price. It's actually going to be higher than 6,000. But we're just going to use the bid which is $6,000 and $6,65 to be exact. All right. So that is the amount that we would collect in premium and that is paid upfront to us. So that actually makes a break even price of you know the $500 and then we go all the way down to $439. Right? So that is now our new break even. So that is the cost if you get put the stock. Okay? If it's at 500 below you will get put the stock in 2028 which is long long long way but your break even is 439. So again, that's that's pretty much half of the real cost of where Micron is trading at. we have the range of possibilities. 938 is today's price. We have multiple different prices that the stock could end up at. Strike price of 500. Okay, we get $6,000 of profit. And our break even is $439. Now it can land anywhere here and if it ends here it'll expire worthless. All right. So what you saw there was super super fast but let's go step by step here and let me just show you what it looks like. So we saw the current price today is you know 938. Okay so this is the range of possibilities right you can see here it could end up anywhere here right I mean the stock could go up to,100 it could go down and crash down to 400. I mean it could go less than that but this is kind of the range of possibilities here. Okay. Now it has to fall a long way to reach the break even and actually has a long way to just reach the strike price. So if it falls 47% it'll reach the strike of $500. Okay. But even more interesting is we have a $60, you know, per contract. And I just took the bid price. It's actually going to be higher than 6,000. But we're just going to use the bid which is $6,000 and $6,65 to be exact. All right. So that is the amount that we would collect in premium and that is paid upfront to us. So that actually makes a break even price of you know the $500 and then we go all the way down to $439. Right? So that is now our new break even. So that is the cost if you get put the stock. Okay? If it's at 500 below you will get put the stock in 2028 which is long long long way but your break even is 439. So again, that's that's pretty much half of the real cost of where Micron is trading at. And then if it falls anywhere here, anywhere above the strike price, you won't get assigned and you're in the green zone actually anywhere above the break even. Okay, so now you understand that full short clip that we uh we went over. Okay, that's how it works. Everything up here in that green line zone is it expires worthless. Okay, it expires completely worthless. And then in between this green dot and red dot, it will start to basically the $6,000 that you made, it'll start to be somewhere in between. So if it's in in the halfway mark, well then you're you're um going to only make $3,000, right? You're only going to make 3K. And if you get to your break even, you make nothing pretty much. You don't make anything and you will get a sign. Okay? And then anything below here, you're actually running at a negative. Okay? You're running at a negative anywhere below the break even of 43935. Okay? So, um, that's kind of like how this whole strategy works. Now, let's go into more details on this strategy and how to manage the strategy. So, leverage is not free. Don't use more than you can cover on this strategy. Okay? If you can tie up, you know, less than half the capital, which is what I just showed you, amazing. Same stock, same shares if assigned, far less money down. I I like that, right? I mean, you know, whenever you buy things, if you can put less money down up front, great. Capital efficiency. I love that. So, if you were to just buy the shares, that's going to cost you $90,000. And by the way, if you have a smaller portfolio, just pick a cheaper stock. You can cross off a couple uh zeros here, couple of decimal points, and go for something that's $9,000 in total capital. For example, because this is very, very expensive. But, you know, at least this is a cheaper way of doing um you know, getting into Micron than buying 100 shares. You can clearly see that if you buy 100 shares, 90 grand. If you sell a put option, your actual capital is 43 grand. you know, you know, the break even times 100. That's because it's not 500. It's not the $500 strike. It's because you collected $6,000. So, it's $6,000 um lower on your break even. Okay? So, it ties up less than half capital. Now, that's exactly where people get really greedy. They think, "Okay, I'm tying up less than half of the capital, so, you know, I have $49,000 left. Let me, you know, go do more risky strategies." No, no, no. Don't you know I can only say so much on YouTube without getting in, you know, too much specifics that would throw people off or be too complicated or be completely, you know, potentially dangerous to the YouTube algorithm. Things I can't mention. Man, I just see so many people getting too greedy. Okay, let me just put it that way. Don't be too greedy. Obviously, easier said than done, but if this is something you take seriously, again, I'd love to help you. I can definitely show you one-on-one all the mistakes that can happen with a number of strategies, not just the strategy that I'm showing you today. All right, let's go into number three. Not every stock is worth selling. Okay, we talked about this in terms of chasing volatility, but also uh on the other end of the spectrum, there's a lot of safe stocks that just they're not worth it. They're they're not worth it. Okay, so the same expiration, you can go out very far in terms of, you know, date. I like to use Coca-Cola as a lot of my examples because it is notoriously very very low volatility. You can see here just very tiny premium, right? I mean, you go so far out, $72 strike price and the premium is just a couple bucks. So, it's very, very low, it barely pays you anything. So, same money tied up for the same year and a half, very, very um different pay, right? So, a stock that moves a lot, got those dollar signs, guys, you got the bicep over tricep, you know, juicy, you know, steak, whatever. It's just beautiful. When you got that volatility going on, that's where the gains are. That's where the real gains are. So, that's what the premium that you collect. It feels nice. Feels nice. You got that money in your account. Go get some nice spicy tikka masala. Travel somewhere. Beautiful. Whatever, right? Take care of your family. But um when you look at a low volatility stock, I mean there's like h it's like a few drops of water there. It's not that attractive. So the premium is way too low. Same money tied up, but just it's not worth doing. Okay, so these are kind of the two. Feel free to find the middle point. Again, I can only say do so much on this short YouTube video, but if you want implementing, I can find the middle ground for you as well if that's something that you feel like you need because some of this stuff can get you into trouble. Yeah, it can be too attractive. Yeah, there's a lot of too attractive things and then this stuff doesn't make any sense doing it all. So, the fourth one is volatility. This is this is the the secret sauce. Okay, I'm not going to gateep this. I'm just going to show you how it is. Volatility is the most important factor because a long-term leap option, there is a lot going on with it. So, um, the biggest value is really time, okay? Because it's a long-term leap option. Time is the biggest value. You can see I highlighted here on the screen Vega. So, Vega here is 2.1. That's the most important figure because Vega is volatility. Okay? The higher this number, the more the option is impacted by small changes in volatility. You got to think about it. If something is a little bit more volatile today, it's likely going to be a little bit more volatile for the foreseeable future. And this option is so long-term that that little bit today could mean a very very big difference over that time period. Right? Think about it as buying coffee every day. If you buy $5 worth of coffee every day, over a year, it's going to be in the couple thousand range, right? It's going to be over $1,500. So, you can see how something small today can be a lot in over a year. And the same thing is true for volatility. A little change of volatility today could end up changing the valuation of the LEAP option completely in the year and a half. Right? You can see here in a 30-day period on Micron, um, yeah, the the Vega is a lot smaller. It's 79. So, when there's a change in volatility, yeah, there's a change in the option price. Okay, here there's two contracts. I'm going to paint this really interesting picture for you and then we'll watch a short video and I'll also explain it to you. So, two contracts, same stock, one expires in a week and one expires in a year. Okay. Now, we can see the long one moves about three times as much. Here's what it looks like. Two options. One is 80, one is $211. Three times different. And if implied volatility falls by 10 points, you get a really massive rise in terms of the money that you have made. Let me explain to you why you're actually making money when volatility falls. So, what we saw in that short clip is there's a three times difference, okay, as you see on my screen. But when implied volatility falls, that's actually where you make a lot of your money. Because if implied volatility falls and the stock becomes less volatile, there's less that can happen. And because you already sold the major money up front, if less can happen, that's a good thing for you. Okay, so you can see here how if implied volatility falls, this is kind of a complicated factor. You might be a little confused, which is normal because if you're new or even if you're experienced, this is a very complicated topic. Okay, I'm just going to brush the surface of how this works. If implied volatility falls, the option in this strategy would gain value. Okay, don't worry about it. It's not going to kill your results. Um, everything else that I covered should, you know, if you if you understood that, then you're fine. This is a little bit more advanced. Okay, but so here's the picture that you want to see. Okay, if you want to see a stock that has gone up, come down, a little bit of consolidation, this is a good time to uh get into a strategy like this. And volatility comes back is really really normal. So every time a stock comes up in terms of volatility, it does typically drop off and it kind of mean reverts back to what is uh standard and typical. So you want to be selling LEAP options in this more elevated area. Okay, so let's go into number five. And number four, I can go into much more detail, but it's it's it is more complicated. Okay, so number five, let's move on to something that's very simple, which is think like a business owner. Literally look at Micron stock. Okay, is this a real company? You might end up owning it. Okay, you might end up owning it. So is this a real company? Ask yourself, is this a real company? Do you want to own it? You can do any other stock. I'm not sponsored by anyone. You can choose a different stock, right? I'm just using this as an example. So you want to look at the revenue that the company is making. Whatever company that you pick, you want to make sure that revenue and profit quarter after quarter is looking very good. Obviously for Micron it has absolutely exploded from you know 11 billion 13 billion 23 billion and this company has just skyrocketed. You can see net income also in a very clear trajectory and path. Very very important what I do when I look at companies that I want to sell options on or leaps must be a good business. All right so take your time go over uh the numbers go over number four if possible and if you don't understand that reach out to me ideally schedule a call. Um it's free to learn about my program it's free to see um if it's a good fit for you. Number four is very important. It is a little bit more technical, so you may need help with that. Otherwise, implement the strategy in your portfolio and comment on the video. Let me know how it goes for you. Subscribe to the channel. Thank you so much for watching and I'll see you in the next one.

The thing to really watch today is what's going to happen at open with companies like SanDisk, SKH Highix, and uh Micron.

So, SanDisk, we can see it here. It's pulling the Samsung at least first minute.

I know the buyback was less than expected, but what we should do is we should to to lead into that, we should pull up the uh Micron UBS 40% buyback expectation because it was a UBS call.

Uh, a UBS analyst forecast the company could generate as much as $400 billion in free cash flow through the end of 2028. That amount of money, especially for a business like Micron, has had its fair share of downturns in the past. It's staggering. The analyst believes the company could retire as much as 40% of its outstanding shares uh with that money.

UBS. This looks like uh this must be an op-ed. But anyway, where is the UBS piece? UBS here. Uh, a UBS analyst forecast the company could generate as much as $400 billion in free cash flow through the end of 2028. That amount of money, especially for a business like Micron, has had its fair share of downturns in the past. It's staggering. The analyst believes the company could retire as much as 40% of its outstanding shares uh with that money.

Okay. So, I'm actually curious what else they're saying, but but historically, you know, the companies want to hedge for a future downfall um or a slowdown in pricing. And so, whether they keep more money for plant property and equipment and and the expansion that they're doing in the actual buildout uh or they just save money for rainy day after retiring debt, you know, that tends to take more capital than people like.

Usually, when you have earnings at a company that explode like this, okay, these are the percentage growth levels of of earnings per share growth at Micron, earnings per share exploded like 900%. Uh, you know, 25 to 26, like this is an insane growth in earnings per share.

Even though Micron's revenue is expected to go up for the next four years, they're going to make more money on top of more money on top of more money. Their growth rate converges to zero. And that is a problem.

Well, does it peak closer to where we are now? Uh does it, you know, peak after the anthropic IPO?

You know, this is crystal ball kind of stuff. But the point is the markets care about expectations. The market is already expecting pricing to come down from memory. That doesn't mean it's bad for Micron stock, right? The markets already know memory prices are going to come down in the future.

We know the growth rate, the second derivative, the growth rate of memory prices is turning negative. The question is not that it's going to come down. The question is how long is the cycle going to last? That's what Namora is saying as well. They're like, look, right now we're in massive shortage.

This time is not different. The cycle will end. The problem is when we have the boom, the usual boom cycle looks like this. Can this cycle instead of looking like this look like this where you plateau longer?

Okay, that right here, this fat so to speak, that is your reason to be bullish that the cycle can last longer.

If these expectations get compressed because Anthropic stops spending as much money for example because remember high bandwidth memory this is kind of important small sidebar most enterprise artificial intelligence in my opinion and what we're seeing with like what we're doing with our artificial intelligence at reinvest most artificial intelligence for inference does not need as much memory as the frontier levels of training.

This is in my opinion logical. The frontier models and training the frontier models, they need those Blackwell GB, you know, 200, 300s, the Vera Rubin stack.

They need the latest and greatest massive memory stack to keep those frontier models going. Openweight models and enterprise applications, they don't need that much.

They can operate on substantially smaller chips, older chips, in-house chips, openweight models that are more compressed. The more we use those, the more we compress the need for high bandwidth memory.

It's still going to go up in price. It's still in shortage, but the more these open weight models come, the more you you reduce that plateau. And that's how the market trades for memory stocks.

The market doesn't trade on, oh, memory prices are going to go down in the future. Yeah. No. Every jerk off in their mom knows memory prices are going to come down again in the future. We know the second derivative is going negative.

The whole cycle is dependent on what keeps this getting fatter. If robotics come out and all of a sudden we need to train, which eventually we will, all of these vision-based systems on uh you know for what's it called? um GPU vision um sorry how robotic vision that's where I'm going with all of the robotic vision that needs to be trained is going to use a lot of hardware a lot of GPU a lot of high bandwidth memory but if that's 15 years away we could have a big down cycle before that if that's a year away and the Optimus robot is coming hey we could scurve this up again that's how memory stocks trade and that's what makes it hard to to be exposed in debt to memory stocks because if you're margined up on memory stocks, you are setting yourself up for oopsy dupsies.

Uh just like situational awareness did, you know, they were they were a a real lesson here. So, let me go to some of the other pages I have right here. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, technically, we are right here with pricing.

So you can actually see that the midpoint expected range here of export prices to a CSI shock is that we still have time where memory prices go up, the second derivative is going down because the line is flattening and then soon the first derivative will go down, right? The first derivative goes negative.

Uh memory pricing starts coming down usually, you know, 2 to 3 years after the cycle starts. the cycle really started in about Q4 2025 and by 2029 you're just outright negative.

That's already built in. That's what memory stocks price off of right now and that makes them hard to to invest in with debt. Uh so just be very careful because the volatility will be massive because you're trading expectations.

Let's go see if we could find the price increases. They're listed somewhere here in in the Micron statement. and I'll pull them up, but just from memory, we went from like, oh yeah, prices went up 110% year-over-year

Sales of DRAMM increased 343% primarily due to low 260% increases in selling prices and mid 310% increases in average selling prices for NAND. So not exactly 400% but my my point is Q2 this is the micron Q2 piece Q2 was even more extreme than Q1 like substantially more extreme. These numbers if you pull up the Q1 were at like mid 110 range is what they wrote for this.

So most of that price increase that they're talking about in the no more research piece uh aligned with the second quarter not the first quarter which is again important because it helps you pinpoint why claude.

Otherwise the companies will end up leaning conservative. It's like well let's not have bad optics at buying our stock back too high. Uh we'll do some dividends instead. uh we'll keep a little bit more capital for debt payoff which is smart or uh you know capex.

Uh yeah, I mean this is a hardware index. So I've got uh Nvidia, TSM, Broadcom, Micron. Oh, Micron's a big allocation now. What's the allocation in it?

So unfortunately when you're when you're in Sockil you're 3x exposed to a 7.7% position in Micron. Uh, and they are a persistent source of deflation. However, because of the way high bandwidth memory is manufactured that it takes so much of this DRAM that you stack together, uh you're creating a structural shortage that's just going to last longer than previous cycles.

In the first half, year-over-year, memory prices increased 135%. And if you just look at the second quarter postcloud, memory prices were up about 400%.

Now, I think that's actually a really important note to make is that the highest gain in memory prices actually came immediately after and sort of during the anthropic claude um moment, if you will. That's important because it reiterates this concern of what is the catalyst that keeps it pumping.

Bottom line for memory, you're getting me in a shortage for a while. Uh but at some point we need expectations to keep pumping the cycle to actually enable those like 40% micron buybacks to happen.

The issue is all these companies are building out uh machinery and capacity based on their expectations of future demand not anal or in my opinion not realizing how every single memory related company is trying to throw money into expanding capacity to capture that demand that we have today. And that's usually how you end up getting into an over supply because it's not like they coordinate all of their buildouts.

If you're really bullish on memory, in my opinion, it should be because you expect that fat portion of the curve that that plateauing to either last longer or you see S-curves that that maybe I don't.

again robotics, healthcare, AGI, I think these are a little further out than markets expect today and and that creates some downside risk for these plays.

That's why Nvidia is able to pay TSMC and Micron and SKH Heinix and all the way down.