NFLX 被低估；强劲的基本面（营收增长 16%、参与度上升）与看空叙事相矛盾，市盈率从 50 倍压缩至 22 倍创造机会。
逐段跳播
下一家公司，我认为是我投资组合中最被低估的，或者说今天非常接近最被低估的，就是 Netflix。Netflix 跌得很厉害。Netflix 四面受敌。它被市场痛打。所有人都担心它。
所有人都认为人们会取消所有账户，认为参与度在下降，认为 YouTube TV 正在抢走它所有观众，认为它的内容都不好。但当你去看实际数字时，这些都没有反映在它的实际表现中。
Now the next company I believe is the most undervalued in my portfolio or very close to it today which is Netflix. Netflix has gone down like crazy. Netflix is taking punches left and right.
It's getting beat up by the market. Everyone's concerned about it. Everyone believes that people are going to cancel all their accounts, that engagement's going down, that YouTube TV is stealing all their viewers, that none of their content's good.
But when you look at the actual numbers, none of that is reflected in their actual performance.
公司联席 CEO Ted Sarandos 说，参与度实际上同比增长了 2%。他还说，人们对第二季的观看习惯同比在改善，而不是在下降。所以，从第一季到第二季的参与度实际上有所改善，围绕这家公司的许多说法都是错误的。
Ted Sarandos, the co-CEO of the company, said that engagement is actually up 2% year-over-year. He also said that people's viewing habits of second seasons is improving year-over-year, not declining.
So, engagement from season 1 to season 2 has actually improved and that many of the narratives around this company are just false.
它刚刚增长了 16%，这是很快的收入增长。我们的总订阅用户数继续上升。他们披露的最后一个数字是 3.25 亿。
It just grew 16% which is fast revenue growth. We have total subscribers continuing to to go up. 325 million was the last number that they revealed.
Netflix 的内容预算略有增加，但他们的收入增长更快，从而创造了经营杠杆。与此同时，市盈率估值继续被压低。2025 年 9 月时，它的往绩市盈率为 50 倍。现在，它的市盈率是 22 倍。
We have Netflix's content budget, which is increasing a little bit, but their revenue is growing faster, creating operating leverage. And meanwhile, the valuation on a price to earnings continues to get crushed.
It was in September of 2025 trading at a 50 trailing PE ratio. Now, it's trading at a 22.
我喜欢 YouTube。谁不喜欢 YouTube？但 Netflix 会没事的。人们有足够的时间和钱。他们真的有。他们有足够的时间和钱去拥有一个每月大约 12 或 15 美元的 YouTube Premium 会员，不管具体是多少，再加上每月 8 美元的 Netflix 会员。
人们负担得起每月 20 美元，来获得现代史上最大的娱乐内容库。我认为大多数人会愿意为这两者付费。所以，我看不到很多人看到的那种大恐慌。
I like YouTube. Who doesn't like YouTube? But Netflix is going to be fine. People have enough time and money. They really do. They have enough time and money to have a YouTube premium membership for like 12 or $15 a month, whatever that is. and a Netflix membership for $8 a month.
People can afford $20 a month for the biggest libraries of entertainment in modern history. I think most people will be willing to pay for both of those. So, I don't see the big panic that a lot of people see.
我认为 Netflix 是一家会经历内容非常好、然后内容不那么好的时期的公司，但未来他们会有更多热门剧集。他们继续每年投资 200 亿美元。
I think that Netflix is a company that goes through periods of really good content, then content that's not so good, but they'll have more hit shows in the future. They're continuing to invest $20 billion a year.
这个频道对 $NFLX 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。