Nike被评为F级；因近期财务严重下滑，且怀疑利润率或估值能否恢复到先前水平，故不买入。

and by the way, we also look at MS and Nike, for example,

If we just go over to Nike, sort of same industry, but also very different because it's not um, not a luxury company. Fashion in general is going through a massive shift. The trend cycle continues to speed up. Trends from 10 years ago are getting recycled and it used to be 20 plus years. I think that's pretty much a good introduction to to Nike because I feel like that's what happens where it's they messed it up once um where they basically got out of the retail stores and they tried they have enough brand power to go DTC um direct to consumer. it didn't work out and since then they're struggling.

Um there's so many brands that sort of just took their space in all of those stores, Foot Locker, etc. Um and it's difficult getting back in. Um and if you look at the numbers, they are not good. Um I mean it's quite difficult to see, you know, revenue change. Basically, you see that since 2024, um they're not growing. That is pretty severe decline in in 2025. And this is only revenue. Um if you look at at margins for example um and operating profit it's get you know way worse. It doesn't even look that worse here but if you compare that it's basically 7 billion in May 2021 it's cut in half in May 2025. So um that's pretty severe

and if you think about it you're still paying a PE of about 18 to 20 times on that. Um I think you could see it two ways. You could say that it's sort of cheap because if they assume or if you assume they get back to a normalization of the margin um which you see here there were significant declines um then it's definitely cheap. It's way cheaper than the 18 to 20 times earnings actually actually look. But then again do you think they will get there?

Um there are a couple of interesting trends with Nike. Um as we said China is currently a market that is pretty difficult for most fashion companies. Nike is actually turning it around in in North America right now. Um, and especially in running. Um, I would butcher the name, but I think it's the Veromero 18 that they just uh just launched, I think last year. Um, and that has been quite a big success, especially in the US.

Um, and I don't know, Sean, I mean, for example, when I pitched the stock, it felt like you were probably more bearish because I still saw Nike all the time and you didn't. Now, apparently they're staging a comeback, especially in the US. Um, so do you think that's that's long-term or sustainable or do you still feel like they're not getting back to where they were? Um, not only in sales volume, but maybe even a margin.

Where do you think the stock peaked at? Let's Let's give you a little test. Where is the five the five-year peak for the stock price? Uh we're at 38. Um this used to be a company that I think was trading like 60 70 times earnings. Um, let's just say 150 bucks.

It peaked at uh It peaked at about 177. November on November 4th, 2021. It's one of those companies where if you're a compounder, bro, and and you look at that and you just own it for like devastating years. absolutely devastated.

Uh if you look at the 10-year chart, um C are Can you pull that up on fiscal? ... Uh if you look at the 10-year chart, um I'm trying to come up I'm not sure how you describe the pattern. It's a it's a straight line up and then it's a straight line down. It's like a It's like a mountain.

It's only getting worse if you go to max. Like this is just insane. Yeah, it's like a Yeah, it's gone from uh imagine buying in the 90s. It's gone from like a rocky mountain to like a Himalayan, you know? Uh it's just got the falloff has gotten bigger. It's it's obscene.

Yeah. I feel like um with Nike, we talked about it with Lululemon um that we looked for companies if you want to buy fashion companies, you either do it at a price that is ridiculously low, like Crocs for example, or you do it because you think they are the type of company that can survive the mainstream.

If I look at this chart, it sort of looks to me like at some point every company will die in mainstream if it's just fashion. Um it took a long time um for Nike. It took about 40 years, but I don't know. It's just uh it's brutal.

And I I think for this company more than for the luxury houses, I sort of just don't know, not necessarily what the catalyst would be, but what the time frame is supposed to look like.

I do believe that Nike is just because of its history and especially and I think that's a huge thing. Um all the sponsoring like the biggest athletes in the world, I don't see it go away.

Um and and by now obviously the coms are easier than ever but I think this turnaround could take many many years and I don't know if we will ever see the margin potential that the company once had and of course you will never see the multiples again because once you prove that this is possible um for a company like Nike I don't think investors will ever get so excited again that they will say this company is worth 70 times earnings.

Here or here? What What are we giving it? E to F or just simply straight an F?

I think F. Um I'm nowhere close to adding to one. You know, we we kind of got into Nike. We had an idea that they were in the midst of a turnaround and and you know, that's kind of part of the counternarrative,

but um God, I remember uh I think do you remember this moment? It was like uh you know, must have been like a year ago. I was actually at the gym like lifting weights and I'm listening to the earnings call and then I'm texting Daniel. I'm like, "This might be the worst thing I've ever heard in my life. This is the worst earnings call." Um, it was terrible.

The number was also in the gym when you texted me. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. even with the six-hour difference and like I I just remember it vividly sitting there and just looking at like looking around and being like this is catastrophic. Then like the the numbers that they're like the fall off, you know, they're talking about 30 40 50% declines. Um it was the worst numbers I've ever heard on on an earnings call. Uh and so that was uh that was pretty was that was a pretty big turnoff.

Uh, and you know, he did this uh, the CEO did this like uh, motivational speech at the beginning of the call and it was just like it just it was terrible.

It worked though. I mean, the stock was up when we sold it. Uh, I think 10 or 15%. So, at some point there must have been, you know, at least a moment where the market thought this might actually work out.

Yeah. Well, I don't know. Maybe I'm just hindsight biased, but I I feel like I was cringing through it. And um, yeah, Daniel, I got another pop quiz for you. When uh when do you think the last time um what year did Nike trade at $38 where where it trades at today? How how far back?

So we were at 175 in 2021. Mhm. We just looked at a chart which was basically starting in 1990 but unfortunately I didn't remember what the stock price has been at that point. Let's say it was in uh 98 was also a time where the stocks were generally high. So let's say 95. No, this is too early, right? You're too bearish. You're too bearish. I'm too bearish. Even earlier or No, no, no. Later. Later. Later. Okay. So then it has to be like early 2000s, right? 2014. 2014. Yeah. Oh, that's not too bad.

Wait a minute. which which is interesting because if you look at um Under Armour they're Oh, look. Yeah, it's about here.

This comment is actually is is actually pointing it out. I mean, I still remember there was a time, it has to be like 10, 15 years ago by now, where Ebocchromian Fitch was a huge thing. Um, back then I was too young to check whether they I don't even know whether they IPOed at that point. Um, but they turned around just recently. So there are even brands that literally have like a high and then they basically um disappear for like 10 15 years and then they do actually come back and um I mean what can Lulu investors learn from the Nike failure? I think it's pretty much what we said in our biggest loss episode, right? It's a tough industry and it's not only about Nike, it's not only about Lulu. Um, generally it's very difficult to own a compounder at least. um in this industry.

All right. So, it's the highest rated stock right now out of MS, LVMH, and Nike. Um which is which is quite telling.

>> um I think it's super cool to say that you can buy shares in the Knicks and Rangers as somebody who's a you know a sports fan who likes basketball and hockey, but um in terms of my inclination to add it to the portfolio, um it's it's down there at the bottom with Nike for sure.

Um, we talked about Nike, MSG. So, I don't know. Yeah, I feel good about the rankings.