NVDA股价因强劲的业绩指引（70%增长，2万亿美元积压订单）上涨；目前适合日内交易，尚未形成波段交易设置。
逐段跳播
这条视频里关于 $NVDA 说的每一段，按说话顺序排列。点任意一行，上面的视频跳到那一刻。
首先，Nvidia 于昨日盘后发布财报。该股在财报公布初期遭遇抛售，直到指引发布后才止跌回升。当指引出炉时，天哪，股价从约 5% 的跌幅逆转，目前上涨约 7%。我们将像往常一样查看该图表并深入分析这些数据。
So number one, we have Nvidia earnings out yesterday after the bell. The stock initially sold off on earnings until guidance was given. When guidance came out, holy cow, the stock reversed a 5% or so drop to surge up now currently up around 7%. We'll take a look at that chart as always and dive into those numbers.
如果转向 Nvidia，营收同比增长 106%，达到 962 亿美元；每股收益为 $2.22（注：原文为 $222，此处保留原数字格式但需注意单位可能为笔误或特定语境，按指令严格保留原文数值），超出预期 14%。数据中心营收增长 117%。
If we flip over to Nvidia, revenue up 106% year-over-year at 96.2 billion EPS, $222, beating by 14. Data center uh revenue up 117%.
至于指引，这才是真正惊人的地方，指引表现极为出色，远超预期，拥有 2 万亿美元的积压订单。实际上，如果你看这 2 万亿美元积压订单之下，2028 财年全年 70% 的增长指引，才是推动股价上涨的关键。
And the guide, this is the incredible thing, the guide was really spectacular, much better than expected with a $2 trillion backlog. And really, if you look below the two trillion backlog, that FY full year 2028 growth guide of 70%, that is what got the stock going.
当我们最初看到数据时，股价下跌了。虽然盈利和营收都超出了预期，但我们当时还没有得到指引。市场原本预计下一年营收将增长约 45%。而当首席财务官发布指引时，预期增长率高达 70%，幅度大得多。
因此，在每季度营收接近 1000 亿美元的情况下，仍保持每年 70% 的营收增长，这是令人难以置信的数字。
Well, when we initially got the numbers out, the stock traded down. The numbers beat, so earnings and revenue beat, but we didn't have the guidance yet. And the market was anticipating about a 45% revenue increase in the next year. And when the CFO, chief financial officer, came out and gave the guidance, it was said to be 70% expected, much bigger. So again, growing revenue at 70% a year when you're doing almost a h 100red billion per quarter. That is incredible numbers.
现在股价上涨约 7%，这并非巨大的波动，但要记住这是一家市值 5 万亿美元的公司。所以，你知道，大数定律在这里确实起到了一点作用。
Now the stock being up 7% or so, it's not a massive move, but remember it's a $5 trillion company. So, you know, the law of large numbers does play in here just a little bit.
如果我们看这里的图表，这就是关键，对吧？从图表中可以看到，我们最初因财报而抛售，随后飙升，并在盘前交易中稳步攀升。在今早东部时间上午 5 点左右见顶后略有回落，但在早盘时段仍大幅上涨。
Now, if we go to the chart here, and this is going to be the key, right? The chart, you can see initially we sold off on earnings, then surged and have been kind of grinding up in the pre-market. A little bit of a fade after peaking around 5 a.m. Eastern time this morning, but still up sizably in the morning session.
好的，Nvidia 今日再次上涨。让我们看看日线图。我会直接切入正题。我关注几个要点。上方有一条上升趋势线，位置仍然相当高。下方也有一条上升趋势线。因此，基本上 Nvidia 在此处形成了一个略微收敛的楔形形态。
All right, so Nvidia again is trading up on the day here. Let's go to the daily chart. We'll hit this right off the bat. Couple things I'm watching. You have an ascending trend line up here that's still quite a ways higher. Ascending trend line down here. So, we basically had Nvidia trading in a slightly contracting wedge pattern here.
但如果我们看第一阻力位在哪里，这里有一个缺口回补枢轴高点。所以，我认为大约在 227 到 228 这个水平将是第一个阻力位。如果我们突破该位置，第二个阻力位在 232 左右，随后是历史最高点 236。
因此，就波段交易而言，这里有三个值得关注的水平。
But if we look at where the first levels are going to be, there's a gap fill pivot top right in this area. So, I would say right around this 227 to 228 level, that'll be first resistance. And if we get through that secondary resistance around 232 followed by your all-time high at 236. So you have three levels to watch here um in terms of swing trading.
所以这些对我来说都是今天的日内交易水平。目前这里还没有适合做波段交易的点位，但我会向你展示波段交易水平。那么，在接下来的两周、一个月或两个月内，我将监控哪里以寻找潜在的波段做空机会？
请记住，区别在于日内交易是盘中完成的，意味着我当天进出；而波段交易我会持有几天、几周甚至几个月。
So these are all day trading levels for me today. Nothing here is a swing trade just yet, but I will show you the swing trading level. So, where am I going to be monitoring this over the next, let's say, two weeks, month, two months for a potential swing short, which is remember the difference is day trades are intraday, meaning I'm in and out the same day. Swing trades I'm holding for days, potentially weeks, or even a few months.
看看这个，伙计们。你本质上拥有这条上方的趋势线。注意每次我们触及这个区域时都会出现大幅回调，对吧？所以，想法是如果我们这样做并反弹上去，比如说在这里，那么在某个时候我们会迎来下一次大幅回调，那将是我在价格进入该区间时寻找的可做空波段交易水平。
Look at this guys. You essentially have this trend line up here. Notice how every time we hit this area we have a big pullback. Right? So, the idea is if we do that and we rally up, let's say here, then at some point we'll get that next big pullback and that'll be what I look for on a swing trade shortable level should price get up into that range.
现在，由于 Nvidia 的影响，纳斯达克 100 指数百分比涨幅更大，但标普 500 指数并没有强劲反弹。第二点，Nvidia 提到的一件事，这很疯狂，他们说如果不是受限于产能，他们的营收增长会更大。
换句话说，需求远大于供给，这意味着资本支出增加，进而意味着更多的通胀。
Now, the NASDAQ 100 because of Nvidia, of course, is up percentage-wise more, but the S&P is not robustly rallying. Number two, one of the things Nvidia said, and this is wild, they said that their revenue growth would be even bigger if they were not constrained by how much they could produce. In other words, there's way more demand, which means capex spending, which means more inflation.
同样，这也是推高收益率的另一个因素。随着收益率攀升，市场再次变得有些紧张，因为 10 年期收益率正重新接近其近期高点。如果我们切换到那张图表，你可以看到收益率再次上升。这让市场更加紧张。
因此，收益率的小幅上升正在侵蚀标普 500 指数的涨幅，尽管 Nvidia 因财报而一路高歌猛进。
Again, that's another thing that's going to lift yields. So, with yields creeping up, the market's getting a little bit nervous again as the 10-year yield moves back towards its recent highs. And if we flip over to that chart, you can see again back up on yields. And that's making the markets a little bit more nervous. So, again, little uptick in yields, taking a little bite out of the S&P 500, even in spite of Nvidia racing higher on earnings.
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。