NVDA仍是关键的AI基础设施提供商，基本面稳健，但面临Etched带来的竞争威胁及供应商融资导致的资产负债表集中风险，建议对其敞口保持谨慎。
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与此同时，还有Nvidia。在AI市场方面，是的，OpenAI和Anthropic绝对是巨头；但在构建应用的开发者层面，格局则更为分散，其中Anthropic创造了大量营收。这两家公司构成了核心生态，所有依赖GPU、数据中心及相关技术的企业都受制于它们，而硬件端则由Nvidia主导。
and at the same time you have Nvidia so when it comes to the AI market yes open and AI AI is definitely the big one but when it comes to the developers that are like building stuff uh that becomes more split and then you have anthropic being the one that's making a lot of revenue. Those are the two kind of there everything is reliant on all all like all these GPUs all the things that they're um you know happening with the data centers and everything that's really reliant on those two companies but the hardware side of it is Nvidia.
因此，这三家公司是我们需要密切关注的对象。在本视频中，我将重点拆解Nvidia的情况。
So, these three companies are the ones that we need to be paying very close attention to. And in this video, I'm going to break down Nvidia specifically,
这是所有人都在关注的一只股票，其走势一直在剧烈震荡。这就是Nvidia。
This is the one stock that everybody has been paying attention to and it's been chopping around like crazy. This is Nvidia.
就Nvidia而言，它位于该水平之上。最近一段时间它曾几次测试这一位置，但基本情况就是如此。当我们进一步放大查看时，开始关注布林带指标。具体到Nvidia，股价正沿着布林带下轨运行。这意味着近期表现疲软，一直处于弱势状态。
So, in the case of Nvidia, you know, it's above that. Okay? And, you know, it tested that a couple times here in the last little while, but that's the basics. Now, when we get in a little bit closer, we start to look at the Bowlinger bands. And so, for Nvidia specifically, it's riding at the bottom of the Ballinger bands. That means in the recent past, it has been weak. It's been a weak.
顺便提一下，截至本次录制时，财报发布后股价迅速下跌，随后又立即反弹回升。因为毕竟一切看起来都很好。看，我可以稍微缩小图表范围，大致看到当前所处的位置。我们以前也到过这里。这是2025年11月3日，处于相同水平。
如果往回追溯更久，当然会发现它此前表现极为出色。但随着时间跨度拉长，过程中也伴随着诸多波折。
Why? By the way, as of this recording, earnings come out, stock went down rapidly, and then it went right back up. Um, because hey, everything is good. Now look, I can kind of zoom out over here and I could see for the most part like look where look where they are, right? Um, we've been here before. This is November 3rd, 2025. Same level. You could go back a little further and you'll see, of course, it has done exceptionally well. When we start to go back further and further, it has trouble along the way.
这只股票究竟有何特别之处？它并非唯一生产芯片的公司，确实不是。但背后还有其他因素在起作用。
What is it about this stock? Now, it's not the only company making chips. It's not. But there's something else going on.
Michael Burry上周表示他做空了Nvidia，并指出了一个新弱点：一家名为Etched的初创芯片竞争对手。他说该公司能以更低的单颗成本实现10倍的性能，即制造一颗功能完整的微芯片的成本仅为十分之一。这一点很重要，我想把它传达给你们。
Michael Bur, he said that he's short on Nvidia last week and identified a new Achilles heel, a startup chip rival called Etched. He says they can produce 10x the performance at lower cost per die. 10x the manufacturing cost to produce a single functional microchip. And that's an important thing. thing and I wanted to bring that to you.
此外，《华尔街日报》刊登了一篇文章指出，Nvidia已成为AI热潮中的银行家，这使其处于危险境地。不断增长的财务义务可能会加剧下行周期的痛苦。
In addition, there's this article out of the Wall Street Journal. Nvidia has become a banker to the AI boom, putting it on dangerous ground. Growing financial obligations could compound the pain of a downturn.
快速说三点。Nvidia正在为包括OpenAI在内的客户租赁及融资交易提供2300亿美元的兜底支持。这正是我们之前讨论过的循环模式，旨在维持芯片销售：你帮我，我帮你；继续从我们这里购买，我们会确保照顾好你们。这难道不疯狂吗？
Three things quick. Nvidia's backstoppping $230 billion in AI customer leases, financing deals, including OpenAI. That's the whole circle we talked about before to sustain chip sales. You help me, I help you. Keep buying from us. We'll make sure that we take care of you. Isn't that crazy?
这种模式虽然分散了其客户基础，但却将财务风险集中在了Nvidia自身的资产负债表上。分析师警告称，这让人联想到朗讯科技（Lucent）在互联网泡沫时期的高风险供应商融资模式，而那正是其崩溃的前兆。
This um diversifies it customer base but concentrates financial risks on Nvidia's own balance sheet. Analysts warn uh it echoes Lucent's risky.com era vendor financing which preceded its collapse.
哦，但这次情况不同，对吧？也许吧。但拜托，清醒一点好吗？这家市值5万亿美元的芯片制造商自2022年ChatGPT推出以来，一直为AI提供关键的基础组件，从而引发了OpenAI、Anthropic以及Google等硅谷老牌巨头之间的主导地位争夺战。
Oh, but this time is different, right? Sure. But come on, wake up a little bit, right? This talking about the $5 trillion chip maker Nvidia provided the key building blocks for AI since the launch of Chat GPT in 2022, setting off a race for dominance among OpenAI, Anthropic, and the established Silicon Valley giants like Google and so on.
Nvidia正在为庞大的数据中心项目提供支持，并通过一种非传统的资金管道来提振芯片需求。可以说，该公司的影响力比以往任何时候都要大。
Nvidia backs stops sprawling data center projects and an exotic money pipeline to boost chip demand. The company's influence is argu arguably uh bigger than ever.
现在你看，业绩表现不错，这不可否认。但这仍然是一个关键枢纽，依然是关键所在。所以我们要密切关注它，保持谨慎。当然，未来发生什么尚不可知，但我们不希望过度暴露于风险之中。
Now you're looking at this earnings are doing well. Let's not deny that this though is still a lynch pin. It's still a lynch pin. So we watch it. We're careful about it. And of course, there's no telling what could happen, but we don't want to be overexposed.
所以我想知道Nvidia目前状况如何。我能看到这些细节。如果你愿意，我可以放大图表。实际上，我可以点击任何一根K线或任意一天，它会准确告诉我发生了什么。价格回调至50日均线，从上升趋势上方回落。
交易者通常将此水平视为买家倾向于重新入场的点位。这完全正确。
So I want to know what's up with Nvidia right now. I could see this. Look, if you could I'll zoom in. Like literally, I can click on any any candle, any day, and it's going to tell me exactly what's up. Uh pull back to the 50-day average. prices pulled back from uh from above an uptrend. Traders often watch this level as uh as a place buyers tend to step back in. That's absolutely right.
你认为Nvidia怎么了？你觉得它真的存在某种风险，还是觉得“不，这次不一样”？请告诉我。这次不一样？你来告诉我。
What do you think is going on with Nvidia? Do you think they're really something, you know, a risky thing or do you think it's nah? This time is different. Let me know. This time is different. You tell me.
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
The Money GPS 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。