NVDA被低估且短期可见度强劲（增长70%），但面临客户基础不稳定带来的长期风险。

Then we are sitting at uh Nvidia. Nvidia. Nvidia. Nvidia. Where is Nvidia?

Of course, Nvidia is going to be testing 227. We've got into it now fully recovering basically its earnings.

I think in video is honestly much more of a clearing event than Kevin Worsh. So I'm less worried about Kevin Worsh tomorrow.

I don't actually think that stands much in the way of uh the uh enthusiasm that should come as long as Nvidia can really push through here. Nvidia's up against a really critical test, that 227 line. We've rejected it previously. you know, we rejected it over here on the 17th of August. We've previously rejected it. See, we had the failed breakout over here on June 6th. Uh we've rejected it numerous times over here be both before and after the May midmay rally. Uh and so, you know, it's a pretty decent line. You can see how you kind of ride in front of it. When you do break out of it, you break out of it, which is good. But it's regularly been a ceiling. Couple ceiling resistances here again that failed breakout here. Uh and then if you look over here, that's really where we're we we see that clear rejection uh both today and uh and about a week ago, 10 days ago.

So we'll see. We'll see how this can hold on. Uh but uh yeah, I mean nobody really was expecting Nvidia to come out and raise this much. I personally am surprised that the analyst didn't consider how much revenue the sucking could end up driving for Nvidia. So, I don't really find this to be a horrible surprise because we've just raised so much freaking capital from the uh from the sucking of Google and uh and SpaceX.

And you'll see that if you watch the uh Nvidia video I made on I the title's like AI market bubble or whatever. uh and uh you know the the proof about Nvidia and we go through the earnings call and there are there are some things in there that are like okay wait a minute the sustainability of these foundations have serious question marks

uh and so if the market picks up on those question marks then we will not get through 227. So that's the critical test is can Nvidia get through this because if there's a lack of capital or a lack of trust, we're not going to break through this and then we don't necessarily have uh a hardware rally.

So, uh, let's, uh, there's also now talk about the Nvidia acquisition of, uh, Hugging Face. If you haven't seen that yet, uh, that was pretty remarkable news just because it's a, you know, another$1 13 billion, okay, another$1 13 billion play.

Nvidia is nearing an agreement to acquire hugging face in a deal that would value the AS startup at $13 billion. The two sides have held serious conversations about a transaction. Separate report from the information said Nvidia had reached an agreement for 12.9. Nvidia has made a flurry of deals in the past year, including the recent $6 billion licensing agreement. This was for the open uh weight models, but HuggyFace, honestly, you know, they've been pretty OG since 2022 and probably even before that, but you know, they got pretty freaking popular.

Still trying to push up to that 227 level. Pretty critical for Nvidia to really break through that today.

Uh, Nvidia strategic relationship with immature open cloud.

This is why I say you got to break out at 227 on on Nvidia because if you can't break out at 227, it's a sign that people have their doubts still uh about this rally, which you know, there are some reasons to have doubts. Uh but I I uh I would have expected uh the market might have been a little bit more blind to some of those doubts and we would have seen some more aggression. But uh this is not very aggressive. This is pretty balanced trading right now. You know, obviously we rerated a little bit higher, but we're very balanced on on um the price action. We're stuck basically at 223, right?

Nvidia still at 225 but holding in there.

I see your comment here about Nvidia not liking the 226 227 level. Yeah. Uh that's that's the struggle. Uh so you know it'd be nice to actually break through on it.

Meanwhile, we're looking at Nvidia here.

All right, I'll see if uh Nvidia can get through this test right here.

the hope is that post Nvidia you could have another hardware rally. That's the hope. But it's getting harder.

Okay, let me go check the Nvidia. Ah, it's already slowing down again. Look at look at how tough this is to get through this 227 level here. Just keeps getting sold down.

in fairness, financial conditions are kind of telling you that if you go out there and raise money for the Nvidia circular financing deal, you are not necessarily going to be rewarded for that.

Now does that change the fact that I think it's you know potentially bubbly? No. You know, and this is I think sometimes what people forget. Oh, by the way, Nvidia is testing the 227 line. Come on, baby. Breakthrough.

my thesis is that the long-term like the the 10-year horizon for uh the foundations that Nvidia is building its revenue on top of, which is really like this triangle of open AI and uh anthropic, you know, they really hold up the whole foundations of this sort of triangle. of Nvidia spend.

Uh obviously Elon Musk is is part of the tool of this infrastructure build for pumping up Nvidia spending, right? I think these are unstable foundations. And so that makes me nervous about the sustainability of the spending that we're seeing. I don't think it's sustainable. do think that, you know, this is going to come down pretty gloriously at some point in the future.

it'll be nice to get, you know, Nvidia is such a the center of the universe here that when when they come out with such strong results and enthusiasm and guidance, um, it really is the rising tide that lifts all boats.

Who's the Nvidia from 23 and 24?

Oh, is Jim Kramer commenting on uh on on Nvidia? That's that that's pretty bad. That's probably why we are uh not uh not hitting new new highs here uh or breaking out.

Nvidia makes a stand as it shakes off political story about terrorists. Who cares about the terrorists? banging this one down to 120, I guess. I don't know. It's all over the place.

Ever since 4:15 a.m., there's been a persistent seller of Nvidia between 225 and 223. Whatever. Whatever.

How are we doing on our breakthrough? Did we break through yet? Bitcoin? No. can't get through the line. Nvidia can't get through the line, bro. Nvidia can't get through the line,

The Nvidia piece. We've obviously been talking about Nvidia.

There's Neatron from Nvidia.

if we have a foundation built up on the spending of OpenAI and Anthropic and Nvidia is guaranteeing that spending and then the open way models kill the need for their or kill their ability to profit then you've got big problems.

Not you're you're really surprisingly having a lot of trouble getting up here on Nvidia. I do find that surprising.

It's not to be bearish again. uh Nvidia I think it's it is undervalued based on you know what what's going on now it deserves to be rerated there are some issues there

And then yeah, here's that uh that Bitcoin line going back for another another test. Conveniently at the same time that Nvidia is going back for another test, right? It's great.

some researchers argue Nvidia cut uh memory components on newer chips to keep costs competitive especially in the face of uh openweight pressures. That's reasonable.

All right. Let's go see what's going on with Nvidia. Hey, look at that. Trying to get through. That's great. 227 line just broke. That's really bullish for the Q's, too. I mean, that's just like broadly uh a big W right there is breaking. That means finally that selling pressure has been pressure valved, if you will, which is great.

they did $26 billion buybacks and dividends in Q2, which sounds like a lot. It would be for any other company we could talk about, but um they have an authorized $99 billion buyback in place already. At any point they want that could go to 200 billion. Let it's just authorized. Doesn't mean they have to do it.

Here's what that does. If you're long the stock as a shareholder, whether you're institution or what, when you see this thing, inevitably people get bored with it and it trades back down to 211, 212. Yeah, there are people selling the stock, maybe smart people. Nvidia is buying it from you and they're buying it from you at a below market multiple at those prices.

So feel free. You think there's something better you can buy, you think there's another company who can give you 70% revenue growth through 2028, give you that level of visibility, and you actually believe it, go ahead, buy the stock. I don't know of any other. Who else can tell you, here's our forecast. We think it's locked in already with the sales contracts we have. It's 70% plus. We're still ahead of everybody in the game. And by the way, if you don't believe us, no problem. we'll take that stock off your hands.

That's what I think the shareholders of Nvidia should take away from today in terms of like why stay? Why not just take the 9% pop right now? But a share buyback is not the reason to be owning this company.

>> Look at that. Holding on to it. That's great. This is good. Let the boué continue. Oh, great. Hey, man. Everybody wants to make some more dollars. I am all for it. I don't think it's going anywhere.

Nvidia to start employeefunded US political action committee. Are you serious? Look at this. Nvidia to start employeefunded US pack. Like talk about now, you know, the rich basically taking over politics. I mean, we've already known that's been the case. That's all like always been the case. Like what's changed there, right? But that was not on my bingo board.

Look at this. Nvidia to start employeefunded US pack. Like talk about now, you know, the rich basically taking over politics. I mean, we've already known that's been the case. That's all like always been the case. Like what's changed there, right? But that was not on my bingo board.

So $5.5 trillion company now. You know, they just farted Adele. A Dell the company, right? Uh, that was not on my big board. I write that down. $5.5 trillion company now.

Look at that. We are breaking through by the way on Nvidia. Fantastic. and holding it so far. We've been holding that for about 20 minutes now. Good, good, good.

There it goes. Look at that. Nvidia breaks through. Big W.

Right there, dude. Look at Nvidia. Let's go. Look at that. 229 now. Almost up a full 10%. Clean clutch. clean breakout. Really, really bullish.

In the meantime, let me get their market cap. So, come on. Nvidia basically rejected 230 there. That's just a nominal line.

It's lifting all the ships over here. You've got Nvidia. It's about to Oh, this is the second test it's now had at 220 at 230 here. I think we're going to break through this before the close. I don't know if we'll hold it into the close. We might though because I think leveraged ETFs are going to go on a little buying spree at the end of the day.

We have uh we talked about Nvidia uh Bank of America. We could look at a little bit of what the suits are thinking. Hugging face deal would make Nvidia the king of AI.

Okay, there's going to be a lot about Nvidia from the suits. We've talked a lot about Nvidia already, though. Colette saves the day. Yes, she did. She was the one who mentioned the 70% while Nvidia is negative and then it popped.

This this is another reason Nvidia uh keeps going, right? It's it's not just OpenAI and Enthropic, but it's the companies competing to catch up. That includes Meta, uh that includes Google, and that includes SpaceX via Grock, right? Uh and then of course, plus uh OpenWeight,

And and the better Nvidia does, the more cyber people want. The better Nvidia does, the more cyber people want.

Nvidia's market cap gain of 370 billion. That's almost unprecedented. One of the biggest gains of all time.

even if growth rates end up curving out for some of the cloud uh service providers for the hardware providers the neoclouds the Nvidia for memory whatever when and if that happens maybe it won't happen but when and if that happens doesn't matter cyber security in my opinion is just starting on this inflection point think it's the next frontier

Their gross profit margins are at Nvidia levels at 75%. Which is really, really good.