英伟达财报表现强劲,股价上涨且被视为具备抵御市场泡沫的韧性。
逐段跳播
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英伟达发布了强劲的财报,其股价正在飙升。此外,在投资者关注杰克逊霍尔会议和美联储动向之际,英伟达重新点燃了AI行情。
Nvidia had blowout earnings and it's blowing up. Also, uh Nvidia reignites the AI rally as investors are eyeing Jackson Hole and the Fed.
乔,英伟达不可能成为那种在泡沫破裂时被击垮的股票,对吧?我的意思是,看看英伟达。让我先把笔记放一边。英伟达就是所有利润的未来,据我所知,克里斯,没有什么能阻挡它。
Joe, there's no possible way that Nvidia is one of these stocks that uh can ever be taken down in the bubble, right? I mean, just take a look at Nvidia. Let me take off my notes here. >> Nvidia is the future of all profits, as far as I know, Chris, there's nothing that will stop it.
哦,等等,等等。一个订单块就能阻止它。稍等一下。请再等一秒。你看到我看到的了吗?>> 我看到了。是的。看看那上面的长上影线。
>> Oh, wait, wait. An order block can stop it. Hold on a second here. Wait just one cotton picking second. Do you see what I see? >> I do see that. Yeah. Look at the tail above that.
对于不了解我们在说什么的人,这个……我找不到光标了。在这里。好的。这个区块就是我们所说的异常值区块或订单块。我会交替使用这两个术语。它是一个上方阻力区域。而且它们确实有效。
Now, for those of you who don't know what we're talking about, this um I've lost my cursor. Where's my There it is. Okay. This block right here is what we call an outlier block or order block. You're going to hear me refer to it as both. It is an area of overhead resistance. And they absolutely work.
这意味着什么?为什么有效?这里有一群被困的买家。他们只想尽快以保本价离场。第一次有机会这样做时,他们把价格压了下去。第二次有机会时,他们又把价格压了下去。乔,第三次看起来他们也在这么做。
Now, what does this mean? Why does it work? There are a pocket of trapped buyers right here. They want to get out at break even as fast as they possibly can. The first chance they had the chance to do so, they smoosh the price back down. The second time they had a chance to do so, they smooshed the price back down. Joe, the third time they've had a chance to do so, it looks like they're doing so.
>> 英伟达正在崩盘式下跌至大约两周前未见的水平。这太疯狂了。是的。有趣的是,克里斯,我们对此进行了一些回测,结果显示平均而言,在突破之前触及该订单块的次数具有一定的规律性。
>> Nvidia is crashing up to levels not seen since like two weeks ago. This is crazy. Yeah. And interestingly though, Chris, we've done some back testing against this and it looks like on average the number of times you touch that order block has some consistency before it's broken.
我们昨天发现了一个情况。嗯,当价格第一次触及订单块时,当然,这只是基于线索。我们会对此做更多研究,因为这是异常值的定量研究。这不是两个互联网上的随机家伙说“相信我,兄弟”。不。
我们做的一切都有数据和科学支持。请务必订阅。嗯,55%的情况下,当价格第一次遇到这些订单块时,在纳斯达克指数上,55%的情况下会被拒绝。当然,样本量有限。我说的是有限的样本集。
我想说的是有限的样本集。55%的情况下,第一次就会被拒绝。第二次,我记得被拒绝的概率降到了16%左右。但到第三次时,被拒绝的概率低于10%。现在这是纳斯达克的数据。我们将对个股如这里的英伟达进行这项研究。
让我们看看第一次、第二次就在这里。是的。所以这里是第三次。如果我们把同样的从纳斯达克得出的分析应用到这里,第三次只有9%的情况下会在那个点被拒绝。但要记住,纳斯达克和英伟达是完全不同的东西,如果你这样想的话。
We we did make a discovery yesterday. Uh the first time it hits an order block, the Now granted, this is just on cues. We're going to do more research on this because this is outlier quantitative research. This is not two random guys on the internet saying, "Trust me, bro." Nope. Everything we do is backed up by data and science. Be sure you subscribe. Uh 55% of the time, the first time it runs into these order blocks, 55% of the time on the NASDAQ, now granted, limited damp set. Limited dample set is what I said. What I meant to say was limited sample set. 55% of the time it gets rejected on the first. On the second, I think it was down to 16% of the time it it gets rejected. But by the third it's um under 10% of the time. Now that's on the NASDAQ. We will be doing this research. We will be finding out more on your individual stocks like um like Nvidia right here. But let's see the first time the second time right here. Yeah. So this is the third time right here. So if we apply the same uh same analysis from NASDAQ to here the third time only 9% of the time does it get rejected at that point. But remember totally different things the NASDAQ versus the the Nvidas if you want to think about it.
但这为什么有效?为什么这成立?想想看,对吧?如果这是一个被困买家的区域,对吧?这个被困买家的区域。被测试的次数越多,卖出的人就越多。假设这里有100个卖家,好吧?然后这里卖了25个,这里又卖了25个,好吧?
这意味着此时只剩下50个。如果足够多的买家压倒这50个卖家,就会推高价格。这就是市场的运作方式。这正是市场的运作方式。它是恐惧与贪婪的不平衡。好吧?所以,在这种情况下如果有51个买家,其他条件不变,价格就会被推高。
所以下次交易时要记住这一点:统计上我们已经证明,并且很快会有更多数据支持,订单块被测试的次数越多,它被突破的可能性就越大。
But why does that work? Why does that hold true? Well, think about it, right? If this is an area of trapped buyers, right? this area of trapped buyers. The more times it gets hit, the more times it gets hit, the more people get to sell. So, let's say that there were 100 sellers here, okay? And then 25 sold here and 25 sold here, okay? Which means that there's only 50 left at this point. If enough buyers overwhelm the 50 sellers, it will push price up. That's how the market works. That is exactly how the market works. It is an imbalance of fear and greed. Okay? So, if there are uh 51 buyers in this case, everything else held equal, it will push the price up. So, keep that in mind next time you're trading that the more times the order block is hit, statistically, we have shown, and we will have more data on this soon, the more times it's hit, the more likely it is to reject.
嗯,但是,你知道,跟着价格走。价格会上涨,价格会下跌。只是不要在下跌途中持有仓位。好吗?
Um but just, you know, go with price. Price is going to go up, price is going to go down. Just don't hold it on the way down. Okay?
>> 这种长期展望相当罕见。我是说,当然,英伟达非常深入其中。所以,它确实在创造需求、锁定需求、资助需求。因此,他们可能是对需求侧有更好或最清晰视野的公司。但当谈到利润率的故事时,首席财务官将其描述为极端,特别是在内存定价以及一些组件成本方面。
我只是想知道这是否会真正加速英伟达或许在……的努力
>> That long-term outlook pretty rare. I mean, for I mean, sure, Nvidia is very plugged in. So, it's really creating demand, locking in demand, defunding demand. So, they will probably be the one that has the better picture or the best picture of the demand side. But when it comes to the margin story, the CFO said it described it as extreme when it comes to pricing in memory and some of the uh component costs as well. I just wonder if this is going to really accelerate perhaps Nvidia's efforts to
>> 每个人都想预测顶部和底部。是的,当然。我是说,这家伙怎么知道它会……对吧。给我中间部分。正是如此。找到一个解决方案。我是说,最近的一份报告暗示英伟达正寻求减少对未来架构(如Rubin Ultra)中高带宽内存芯片的依赖。我只是想知道目前如何在半导体领域内进行差异化。
>> Everyone wants to call the top and the bottom. Yeah, for sure. How I mean, how how is this dude going to know if it's going to Right. Give me the middle. Exactly. find a solution. I mean there was a report in recent days suggesting that Nvidia is looking to reduce the uh reliance on high bandwidth memory chips for upcoming architectures like Reuben uh ultras. I just wonder how you need to sort of diffiate within the semi-rades right now.
让我们简单点。如果价格上涨,原始人克里斯,价格上涨,克里斯买入。价格下跌,克里斯卖出。我是说,就像我……我对芯片、晶圆、低带宽之类的毫无头绪。我来这里是为了抓住涨势,对吧?如果它在上涨,这就是我唯一关心的。
这就是我唯一关心的。事实上,我甚至不想听他说什么。我想去下一个视频。我们肯定会学到更多,乔。我们肯定会学到更多。英伟达重新点燃AI行情。投资者正关注杰克逊霍尔。你觉得怎么样?
Let's just make it simple. If price go up, caveman Chris, price go up, Chris buy. Price go down, Chris sell. I mean, let like I don't I don't I don't have any idea about the chips and wafers and low bandwidths and all this and that and the other. I'm here to ride the rip, right? If it's going up, that's all I'm talking about. That's all I'm talking about. In fact, I don't even want to know what he says. I want to go to the next video. Surely we'll learn more, Joe. Surely we'll learn more. Nvidia reignites the AI rally. Investors are eyeing the Jackson Hole. How you like that?
今天讨论的第一个话题必须是英伟达,因为它本身就是股市故事的主要驱动力。我们刚刚听到关于中国试图与英伟达脱钩的消息,或者说那里正在形成的一种主题。我们也早些时候听到了关于特朗普政府正在权衡对某些半导体类型产品征收关税的政治新闻。嗯,米歇尔,我先从你开始。
Now our first topic for the discussion today has to be Nvidia because it's the primary driver in the stock market story per se. We just heard about the decoupling that China is trying to make from Nvidia or the kind of thematic that's developing there. We also heard earlier on about this political story that the Trump administration is weighing tariffs on certain semiconductor type products. Uh Michelle, I'm going to start with you on this one.
>> 在这里,英伟达无疑是市场上最重要的公司,因为其市值和影响力。我们需要多大程度上担心针对英伟达的这种围困,因为每个人都试图削弱其主导地位。
>> Here, Nvidia is by far the most important company in the market because of its market cap and its influence. How much do we have to worry about some of the kind of I guess siege that's being laid to Nvidia because everyone wants to try to chip away at its dominance.
>> 史蒂夫,你看到了英伟达的结果。我们听到了一些宏观因素在起作用。英伟达是一只值得今早上涨7%的股票吗?它相对持平自……
>> Steve, you saw the results from Nvidia. We've heard some of the macro factors at play. Is Nvidia a stock that deserves to be up 7% this morning. It was relatively flat since
>> 它现在在哪里?我想看看。英伟达现在涨了8%。看看那个。现在涨了8%。飙升至过去两周未见的高位。抱歉,我所有的笔记都在我交易它的地方。嗯,飙升至过去两周未见的高位。事实上,那是多少天?
如果我点击这个,乔,我所有的笔记都会重新显示出来。所以,请稍安勿躁。点击E。13个日历日未见。天哪。
>> Where is it at right now? I want to see. Nvidia is up 8% right now. Look at that. 8% right now. Crashing to levels not seen since the last two weeks. Sorry, all my notes where I traded it. Um, crashing to levels not seen since the last two weeks. In fact, how many days is that? If I if I click this, Joe, all my notes are going to show back up. So, just be be patient here. Click E. Not seen since 13 calendar days. Oh my goodness.
这只股票是否配得上其在8月14日所处的价位?它当时是不是就在那个位置?我想它确实应该处于那个水平。它实际上就在那里。也许我有点疯狂,但它真的就在那里。不过话说回来,这里确实存在上述的阻力位,目前正在发挥作用。我们需要拭目以待。
>> Is it a stock that deserves to be at the level that it was on August 14th? Wasn't it like just there? I guess it was a stock that deserves to be at that level. It was literally just right there. Uh, call me call me crazy, but like is is it was just right there. But again, you do have that oversaid resistance right here, which is playing out. We'll have to see
上个季度。我们认为它还有多少上涨空间?是的。所以,这对Nvidia来说是一个完美的布局。该股在财报发布前已经回调了9%或10%,而且所有人都知道过去八个季度中有六个季度的统计数据表现良好。
>> the last quarter. And how much more upside do we think it has? >> Yeah. So, the setup was perfect for Nvidia. the the stock had sold off nine or 10% into the print and and everyone knew the stats that six out of the last eight quarters
这是否有杯柄形态?当那个瘦削的家伙把它放上去时,我不知道他是认真的还是讽刺的,因为我看不出杯子在哪里。你知道我看到了什么吗,Joe?让我们为这个画个图案吧。准备好了吗?在我看来,它看起来像是一个带把手的酒瓶底部。
[笑声] 哦不。告诉我这不是牛仔帽。这是一个倒过来的牛仔帽,对吧?好吧。你知道我看到了什么吗,Joe?一只松鼠。我没看到松鼠。我看到了一只鳄鱼。那是嘴。那是带着牙齿的嘴。那是它的尾巴。
对。沼泽短吻鳄。那就是我所看到的。我看到了死人。看起来像一条龙。是的。好吧。嗯,我做不到那样。[笑声] 好吧。无论如何。但这显然是鳄鱼形态。显然,从这里开始它绝对会涨上去。这就是2026年交易的现实。
如果你没有这种只导致股票暴涨的鳄鱼形态,你在市场上就没有优势。好吧。这就像看云一样。是的。这是一只恐龙。这是一只恐龙。有人说它是兰博基尼。是的。这就是为什么你必须买入它,对吧?
事实上,Joe,你必须显化你的梦想,对吧?你必须显化它。如果你想买一辆兰博基尼,除非图案看起来像兰博基尼,否则你不能买股票。就是这样。或者是一只松鼠。Joe说得对。那是一只松鼠。
>> does this have a cup and handle. So when when the skinny buff guy puts that on I don't know if he's serious or sarcastic cuz I can't see a cup. You know what I see Joe? I see let's let's make a pattern for this. You ready? To me it looks like the bottom of a wine bottle with a handle on it. [laughter] >> Oh no. Tell me it's not a cowboy hat. It's an upside down cowboy hat, isn't it? Okay. You know what I see, Joe? >> A squirrel. >> I don't see a squirrel. I see a crocodile. There's the mouth. There's mouth right there with the teeth coming on. There's his tail. Right. The swamp gator. That's what I see. I see dead people. Looks like a dragon. Yeah. All right. So, um I can't do that. [laughter] Okay. Whatsoever. But this is obviously the crocodile pattern. >> Obviously, >> it's totally going to go up from here. Th this this is the reality of trading in 2026. If you don't have the crocodile pattern, which only results in stocks exploding higher, you don't have an edge in the market. Okay. It's like looking at clouds. Yeah. It's a dino. It's a dino dino. Somebody say it's a Lambo. Yeah. That's that's why you got to buy it, right? If you want In fact, Joe, you got to manifest your dreams, right? You got to manifest it. If you want to buy a Lambo, you can't buy a stock unless the pattern looks like a Lambo. There you go. >> Or a squirrel. >> Joe's right. It's a squirrel.
你知道,对于Nvidia来说,如果今天收盘价高于那个订单块,可能会很有趣,因为那样的话,明天你就是在追逐历史新高了。所以,你知道,除了松鼠和鳄鱼之外,这里还有一些有趣的事情。
>> You know, but what could be interesting for Nvidia is if it closes above that order block today because then tomorrow you're chasing all-time highs. So, you know, there's some interesting things here outside of squirrels and alligators.
他们取得了优异的超预期业绩,但随后股价并未在事后表现良好。所以,每个人都在对冲赌注,希望——呃,空头希望它会再次失败,但我们没有看到这种情况。市场总是设定好来伤害最多的人,就在同一时间,这就是我们所看到的,这也是为什么你会看到Nvidia的这种鞭打式反弹。
They had a they had a stellar beats, but then the stock did not perform after the fact. So, everyone was hedging their bets against that hoping uh the shorts were hoping it would fail again and we didn't get that market always sets up to hurt the most amount of people at the at the very same time and that's what we saw and that's why you see this whiplash back in Nvidia.
但Nvidia,这是重要的一周。嗯,上周我们听到了零售商的消息。本周我们从微观经济层面听到消息,也就是Nvidia,然后我们在Jackson Hole有宏观经济方面的内容。
But Nvidia, this is a big week. Um last week we heard from retailers. This week we hear from the micro m uh from the micro economic front which is Nvidia and then we have macro at Jackson Hole.
市场正在寻找理由以保持正轨并上涨。显然,你知道,Dan在这方面是专家。Nvidia面临着巨大的竞争。这种竞争正在扩大,但目前,Nvidia仍然表现出色。
market's looking for a reason to stay on track and to rally. Obviously, you know, Dan's an expert on this. Nvidia has tremendous amount of competition. That competition is scaling, but for now, Nvidia is still hitting it out of the park.
害怕错过的心理:我最好现在就买入,因为你知道,Nvidia只会涨。忘掉去年它横盘的那段时间。基本上,Nvidia只会涨。好吧。所以你最好现在就买入,因为这将是它有史以来最便宜的价格,或者,你知道,卖出新闻。你买入传闻,推高了它,现在他们要卖出新闻了。
FOMO of I better buy it now because as you know, Nvidia only goes up. Forget the last year when it went sideways. Basically, it Nvidia only goes up. Okay. So, you better buy it now because it's the cheapest price it's ever going to be ever or um you know, sell the news. You bought the rumor, pushed it up, now they're going to sell the news.
我认为Grao在叙事方面说得很到位。看,现实情况是这就像一个叠叠乐拼图,你把它拼在一起。想想超大规模云服务商,然后是我们看到的存储厂商的表现,现在是你看到的AI教父Jensen Huang和Nvidia的表现,需求正在加速。
我的意思是,我们认为即使在过去的3个月里,需求也加速了20%。
I think Grao nailed it in terms of just the narrative. Look, the reality is it's a Jenga puzzle and you put it together. Think about the hyperscalers then what we saw from the memory players now what you see from the godfather of AI Jensen Nvidia the demands accelerating. I mean we we think demand's accelerated 20% even in the last 3 months.
你知道,就投资者情绪而言,Nvidia至关重要,对吧?我们每个季度都在等待。总是首先不要造成伤害。当数字刚出来时,好吧,这些数字足够好,所以我们不会遭遇抛售。然后随着营收同比增长70%预期的宣布。
我的意思是,派对仍在继续。所以这肯定有助于市场情绪。肯定没有伤害。
you know, when it comes to investor sentiment, Nvidia is crucial, right? We all wait every quarter. It's always first do no harm. The numbers when they first come out, okay, these are good enough so that we don't have a sell-off. And then with the announcement of 70% expectation for revenue increase year-over-year. I mean that's that's the party still going. So this is uh certainly going to help market sentiment. Certainly no harm.
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Christopher Uhl - OVTLYR 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。