NVDA未能突破227美元；多次受阻表明市场怀疑且缺乏资金。
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今天我们将再次测试 Nvidia 的 227 关口。这是相当关键的线。我们在盘后失去了它。我们失去了它，你知道，昨天有点激进。你知道，是的，也许有一些交易热情，但我们有几个。昨天在 227 实际上在交易时段内至少有两次大的拒绝。
today we'll have another test here on 227 for Nvidia. Pretty critical line. Uh we did lose it in the post market. We lo, you know, it was is a little aggressive yesterday. you know, yeah, maybe had some trading enthusiasm, but we've got a few. We had at least two big rejections yesterday on 227 actually during the trading day.
但如果 Nvidia 真的在这里保持平衡，Marll 应该会恢复。
But um Marll should recover if Nvidia really holds a balance here.
一旦我们解决了 Worsh，解决了 Nvidia，谁在乎呢？
once we got once we got Worsh out of the way, we got Nvidia out of the way, who cares?
交易日的头几秒钟，Nvidia 在 227 处挣扎。加油，宝贝。
Very first few seconds of the trading day. Nvidia struggling with that 227. Come on, baby.
一旦我们度过杰克逊霍尔，我们将看看 Nvidia 是否真的能守住 227，因为它确实应该突破这一点。它从 SpaceX、Google 等公司获得了大量支出。Neoclouds 相对于大公司来说支出规模较小，但这确实证明了更高的估值是合理的，但它滞后的事实令人失望，然后让你有点怀疑，嗯，我们是否处于获利了结模式？
我们是否处于现金不足模式？这里发生了什么？为什么我们没有更多的热情？
once we clear Jackson Hole here, we'll have to see if Nvidia can actually hold on to 227 because it it really deserves to break out of this. It's getting so much uh spend from uh your uh you know SpaceX, your Google, whatever. uh the Neoclouds. Neoclouds are relatively small in terms of how much they're spending compared to the big guys, but um you know, it really justifies a higher valuation, but the fact that it's lagging is disappointing and then makes you sort of wonder like, huh, are we in a bit of a profit take mode? Are we in a bit of lack of cash mode? You know, what's what's going on over here? Why don't we have some more enthusiasm?
让 Nvidia 突破 227 是如此沉重的负担。我认为我们出现这种近乎挣扎的行为的原因之一是人们有点，你知道，我不知道。我对牛市论点持怀疑态度，对吧？我认为一些硬件怀疑论确实在给市场带来压力，至少在硬件领域是这样。
it's such a heavy weight of trying to get Nvidia over 227. I think one of the reasons we're having this almost schloggy behavior is because people are kind of like, you know, I don't know. I'm skeptical of the bull case, right? Some of that hardware skepticism, I think, is indeed weighing on markets, at least in that hardware sector.
显然，如果你没有为 Nvidia 画出 227 线，我认为这是 06 线，非常关键。你可以看到我们正在努力恢复它。
obviously if you do not have a 2227 I think it's 06 line drawn for Nvidia pretty critical. You can see we are trying to recover that.
如果我去 Frontier Labs，那些像醉水手一样在 Nvidia 上花钱的人，如果我去找他们，我最终会在 Fable 5 上为一百万个输出令牌花费 50 美元。
If I go to the Frontier Labs, who are the ones spending on Nvidia like drunk sailors, if I go to them, I end up spending $50 for a million output tokens on Fable 5.
好了，所有这些都解决了，我们在这里看到 Nvidia 怎么样？搞什么鬼，伙计？还是不能守住一条线。可能是对杰克逊霍尔的紧张情绪。
Okay, so with all that out of the way, what do we got over here on Nvidia? What the heck, man? Uh, still still can't hold a line again. Could be could be uh nervousness coming up to Jhole.
那么，我只想快速看一下 Nvidia。你肯定失去了 227。我们将再次进行测试。
So, what about I just want to take a quick look at Nvidia. You're you definitely lost 227. We are going back for another test.
所以 Nvidia 再次失去 227。对硬件反弹不利。
So we got Nvidia loses 227 again. Bad for hardware rally.
硬件有点更不确定，取决于 Nvidia 的走势。但你确实需要 Nvidia 突破这个测试。所以，我们看看情况如何。
Uh hardware is a little bit more questionable depending on how Nvidia moves. but you really need Nvidia to break through this test here. So, we'll see how uh how this goes.
看看 Nvidia 再次在 227 被拒绝。它做不到。它是个小宝贝。没有钱来推动这个家伙了。拜托，它只是一个 5.4 万亿美元的公司。不可能那么难。
Look at that 227 rejection again on Nvidia. It can't freaking do it. It's a little baby. There's no money left to pump this puppy up. Come on. It's just a $5.4 trillion company. It can't be that hard.
5 月 23 日双顶，可能 Nvidia 在那时公布财报，对吧？
double peak May 23, possibly Nvidia earnings around that time, right?
没有 Nvidia 的突破，硬件很难。所以，你知道，Nvidia 的拒绝很糟糕。就这么说吧。我真的很希望看到 Nvidia 突破，然后你可以说，嘿，我们为硬件准备了一个反弹，就像 2.0 反弹一样。但是，似乎缺乏资金。太糟糕了。
Hardware is having a hard time without Nvidia breaking out. So, you know that that Nvidia reject sucks. Just I suppose put it that way. Um, I'd really prefer to see a breakout on Nvidia and then you could say, "Hey, we've got a, you know, a rally set up for hardware like the 2.0 rally." But, but there seems to be this lack of capital. It sucks.
Nvidia 在哪里？啊，Nvidia 还在看那个。现在在 223 有潜在的双底。
Where is Nvidia? Ah, Nvidia still look at that now. Double bottoming potential here at 223.
哦，是的。看那个。Q's 刚刚变红，Nvidia 也变红，甚至比以前更红。
Oh, yeah. Look at that. Q's just went thece went went red and Nvidia going red. uh even more so than it was before.
天哪，英伟达一直在下跌，那些线索也一样。
oh man, Nvidia keeps going down and so are the cues.
我们被坑了，我们也被坑了。所以这说得通。是的，英伟达同步率。我们得把那块音效板加回去。
I mean we got we got hawked man. We got hawkked too. So it makes sense. Yeah. Nvidia sync rate. We got to add that soundboard back.
根据我们现在从英伟达了解到的，以及过去几天我们看到的一些网络安全股的表现，它们特别提到人工智能是一个巨大的顺风，那么那个词的热潮有多少是准确的，那个词的繁荣又有多少是准确的？
with what we now know from Nvidia, with what we've seen from some of the cyber stocks over the course of the past couple of days that have come out, specifically citing AI as a massive tailwind, just how much of that word craze is accurate and how much of that word boom is accurate?
然后我们会听到十月份的财报，它们可能会像英伟达一样，会非常出色，而且会符合我们的预期。
And then we'll hear October earnings and they're probably going to be like Nvidia. They're going to be excellent and they'll be what we expected.
是的，英伟达也在暴跌。让我们把这些放在最上面。QQQ。硬件正在被重创。
Yeah, and Nvidia is tanking, too. Let's put these at the top. QQQ. Hardware is just getting creamed.
英伟达的危险信号。嘿，我做过一个关于英伟达危险信号的视频。他们是不是抄袭了我的视频？
Nvidia red flags. Hey, I made a video about Nvidia red flags. Did they copy my video?
第二季度的财报中包含了一些应该让投资者警惕的数字。好吧，让我们看看。英伟达报告的应收账款增长了63%。嗯，我想如果我没记错的话，在他们的财报电话会议上，他们实际上提到他们是有意延长这些期限的。得等OpenAI拿到它的钱。
The second quarter earnings report contains a few numbers that should give investors pause. Okay, let's see about it. Nvidia reported a 63% rise in accounts receivable. Well, I think if I remember correctly in their earnings call, they actually mentioned that they're like intentionally extending those time frames. Got to wait for OpenAI to get his money.
他们这里还有什么其他的危险信号垃圾？这是英伟达。英伟达。我们开始吧。高。所以，我们有应收账款。应收账款上升。公司已交付但尚未收到付款的订单数量大幅增加。
What is the other red flag junk they have here? This is Nvidia. Nvidia. Here we go. High. So, we got the receivables. Rise in accounts receivable. Hefty increase in the number of orders the company has filled but haven't been paid for yet.
美国银行预计应收账款将从710亿增加到1130亿，再到1470亿。那将是两年内增长100%。是的。是的。基本上，你知道，我们确认了这些收入，但我们只是把它们计入应收账款。我们实际上还没有收到现金。这确实有趣。预计会膨胀多少。
Bank of America sees accounts receivable going to 71 billion to 113 billion to 147 billion. That would be a 100% increase over two years. Yeah. Yeah. Basically, you know, we're recognizing this revenue, but we're just putting into the receivable. We're not actually getting the cash yet. That's actually interesting. Just how much is expected to balloon.
五个客户占了其应收账款的70%。这显然是一个违约风险，对吧？
Five customers accounted for 70% of its accounts receivable. That's a obviously a default risk, right?
承诺。这个循环融资承诺在第二季度从119翻倍到179。高盛的分析师表示这些承诺是实质性的。279的承诺来自记忆、数据租赁、股权投资、资本支出，自由现金流下降。嗯，那么自由现金流下降部分是因为应收账款，但然后你还要扣除他们投资于其他公司的资金，你知道，如果你不得不持续投资其他公司，那就会降低你的自由现金流。
commitments. This is the circular financing commitments doubled from 119 to 179 in the second quarter. Analysts uh at Goldman Sachs say these commitments are substantial. 279 commitment from memory, data leases, equity investments, capex, drop in free cash flow. Well, then the free cash flow is partly because of the accounts receivable, but then you also back out the investments that they're making into other companies, which you know, if you have to keep making investments into other companies, then that's sort of like reducing your free cash flow.
哦，得了吧。回到测试，英伟达现在下跌了4%。
Oh, come on. And going back for the test, Nvidia is now down 4%.
那实际上减少了可供英伟达使用的吸力。是的，华为有相当不错的芯片。我刚刚也在做一篇关于这个的报道。但是，是的，这些其他芯片的问题是它们不是英伟达的水平。但它们，你知道，相当不错。
That actually reduces the amount of the sucking available for Nvidia. Yeah, Huawei's got pretty decent chips. I was just uh doing a piece on that, too. But uh yeah, the the the thing with these other chips is they they're not they're not Nvidia levels. Uh but they're, you know, pretty good.
哦，是的。软弱的英伟达。看看这个。哦，现在4.25了。该死。袜子太熟了。想知道袜子怎么样了。袜子。哦，袜子下跌了3，那么袜子将会下跌9。袜子大约到10。是的。是的。然后在日线图上，英伟达的反弹非常短暂。
那天只上涨了6%。我实际上很惊讶。等等，平均说6%。让我检查一下未平均的。哦，更糟。5。哎。是的，那有点快。
Oh, yeah. Soft Nvidia. Look at this. Oh, 4.25 now. Damn. Socks so cooked. Wonder how socks is doing. Socks. Ooh, socks is down three, which socks is going to be down nine then. Socks to about 10. Yeah. Yeah. And then uh on the day chart, that Nvidia relief rally was very shortlived. It was only up 6% that day. I'm actually surprised. Wait, on the average it says 6%. Let me check the unaver. Oh, worse. Five. Oof. Yeah, that has been a little quicker.
我不认为在英伟达目前下跌的情况下，Iron 会表现得很好。
I don't imagine that with Nvidia going down right now, Iron's doing very well.
我们在英伟达上做什么？英伟达目前仍保持约 4% 的涨幅。
Uh what are we doing on Nvidia? Nvidia still it's holding on to about 4% here.
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