NVDA面临客户集中度、成本压力以及潜在会计违规等重大逆风，这让人质疑其维持高增长目标的能力。
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英伟达在 2023 财年表现平平，当然，
Nvidia had a flat year, fiscal 23 course,
所以，我们必须从英伟达开始。我觉得他们正在证明你所说的一切都是不正确的。但他们刚刚表示，这是有史以来第一次，我们将提供全年的指引。之前他们是按季度给出的。他们实际上给出了直到 2028 财年（不是日历年的 2028 年，而是到 2027 年 2 月左右）的指引。
所以他们说，我们的营收将增长约 70%。我们已经锁定了 GPU 和 Vera CPU 等的销售。
So, we have to start with Nvidia. I feel like they're they're proving everything that you've said to be not correct. But they just said for the first time ever we're actually going to give a full year's worth of guidance. Um they were going quarter by quarter. They actually gave guidance through 2028, fiscal 2028, which is not calendar 28, but um it's February February 2027 off in the woods. So they're saying like we're going to grow revenue by about 70%. We've got the sales locked in for GPUs and uh Vera CPUs and etc etc.
我们知道，他们大约 90% 的业务是向数据中心销售产品。其中很大一部分是卖给同样的四五个客户，即超大规模云服务商。他们正在谈论拓宽这一领域。他们现在更多地谈论自动化、机器人，但数据中心业务才是根本。
We know that like 90% of their business is selling to data centers. A huge chunk of that is selling to the same four or five customers, the hyperscalers. They are talking about broadening that out. They're talking more about now uh automation, robotics, but the data center business is the business.
我也想澄清一下。英伟达赚了很多钱。我是说，我对此并不怀疑。那将是疯狂的。然而，其最新季度营收的 16% 来自一个客户。2027 财年上半年营收的 44% 来自三个客户。五个客户构成了其账户总额的 70%。
I just want to be clear as well. Nvidia made a bunch of money. Like, that's I'm not questioning that. That'd be crazy. However, 16% of their latest quarter revenue was one customer. 44% of their first half of fiscal 2027 was three customers. Five customers make up 70% of their accounts.
1100 亿美元的投资中，英伟达出了 300 亿，软银出了 300 亿，这让他们陷入了严重的财务困境，而且他们至今仍深陷其中，还有亚马逊的 500 亿。这种情况不会多次发生，或者说如果英伟达再次投资，他们说他们不会这么做。
他们原话是：“如果他们再投资，那就是艰难时刻的前兆。”
110 billion was Nvidia 30, Soft Bank 30 which put them into fire financial direates and they're still there and uh Amazon 50 billion. That's not going to happen multiple times or if it if Nvidia invests again, they said they wouldn't. They literally said the words, "If they invest again, it's bad times ahead."
你不能这样做，因为即使哦，它会在 2028 年发生。根据共识，英伟达在 2028 财年将达到 6000 多亿，我想大概是 6740 亿。
You can't because even like oh it's going to happen in 2028. Nvidia will get to to 600 something 674 billion I guess it would be based on consensus for fiscal 28.
所以英伟达会达到那里，因为现在英伟达赚了很多钱。这不是一个问题。现在，为了达到那里，英伟达基本上需要依靠三到五个客户。他们将不得不找到更多的债务。像这样更多，因为债务的价格正在上涨。
So Nvidia will get there because right now Nvidia makes lots of money. It's not a problem. Now to get there Nvidia is going to have to basically take three to five customers. They're going to have to find way more debt. Like way more because the price of debt is increasing.
但此外，英伟达刚刚提高了 17% 的价格。内存成本飞涨。除此之外，你还面临人才短缺、电工级钢材短缺的问题。这里有一系列不利于英伟达的因素。
But also, Nvidia just bumped up prices 17%. The cost of memory skyrocketing. And on top of that, you have a shortage of talent, shortage of electrical grade steel. There are all sorts of things stacked against Nvidia here.
他们有可能做到，但我不知道他们将如何做到。实际需要筹集的资金是天文数字。
They could pull it off, but I don't know how they're going. The the actual money that needs to get raised is astronomical.
所以对于正在收听的人来说，我们看到的是英伟达过去 12 个月的净利润已经远远超过了苹果。但是，这其中有多少是股权收益呢？这意味着什么？就像他们在 Anthropic、OpenAI 方面一样，嗯，他们投资了像 Coreweave、Nebius、Iron 这样的公司，他们有一堆股权投资帮助推高了那个数字。
So what we're looking at for people that are listening is the trailing 12 month net income for Nvidia just screamed past Apple. But how much of that is equity gains though? What does that mean? as in their operating anthropic, Anthropic, Open AAI, uh they've invested in like Coreweave, Nebius, Iron, they have a bunch of equity investments that help bumping that up.
所以，回到英伟达，因为这就像……好吧，我把黄仁勋称为……呃……基本上是“AI 美联储主席”。基本上，他是那个在每个季度超大规模云服务商发布财报后，经过三周的滞后，在财报季结束时出来让每个人都感觉更好的人，并且确认了我们……
So, back on Nvidia just because this is like well I call Jensen Wang the in the uh the chairman of the AI Federal Reserve basically basically he's the person that comes out and makes everybody feel better pretty much every quarter we get the hyperscaler earnings and then there's a 3-week lag and then Nvidia comes out at the end of the earning season and ratifies everything that we
好吧，所以单从表面看，960 亿美元的营收。我们知道数据中心的成本大约有 50% 花在芯片上。>> 是的。由于内存的原因现在更高了，但是的。好的。那是……那是 106% 的营收增长，毛利率为 75%。
Okay so just like on its face 96 billion in revenue. We know that the cost of a data center is approximately 50% on chips. >> Yeah. More now thanks to memory, but yeah. Okay. That'sund That's 106% revenue growth at 75% gross margins.
嗯，现在的英伟达，我是说，这是真金白银。所以，你的问题不在于支出是否真实。真正存疑的是购买 Nvidia 产品的资金究竟来自哪里。
Um Nvidia right now, I mean, this is real money. So, your issue is not whether or not the spending is real. Your issue is the source of where the capital is coming from to buy from Nvidia is really what's in question.
Nvidia 的 GPU 非常昂贵，而且刚刚又涨价了，同时 RAM 和建筑成本也在上升。
Nvidia's GPUs are so expensive and they just got more expensive and the cost of RAM and construction are going up.
这确实是个好消息，因为 Nvidia 正考虑以 300 亿美元的估值向 Perplexity 投资数十亿美元。原因何在？因为 Perplexity 是少数几家在 GPU 算力上实际投入真金白银的公司之一。
Perplexity 的倒闭将损失数亿美元，但在这个行业里，当其他公司只花费数百万或数千万美元时，这已经是一笔巨款。因此，Nvidia 正在维持其生存，因为如果它们失败，众所周知，后果不堪设想。
That's actually really good to know because Nvidia is considering investing billions at a $30 billion valuation. Why? Because Perplexity is one of the few companies that actually spends any real money on GPU compute. Perplexity's death would hundreds of millions, but still in this industry that's a lot when no one else is spending much more than millions or tens of millions. So Nvidia is keeping them alive because if they fail, well, everyone knows.
Nvidia 的利润率为 70%，股价按前瞻收益计算为 18 倍市盈率。
Nvidia's 70% uh profit margins, stocks trading 18 times forward earnings.
我会把 GE Capital 作为与 Nvidia 的另一个对比对象。Nvidia 的行为很像杰克·韦尔奇时代的 GE。他们正在进行一些供应商融资。是的，供应商融资，就像当时 GE Capital 旗下的航空业务部门那样。
没错，他们一直在不断让航空公司存活下来。他们曾是巨大的租赁商，一度是美国最大的设备租赁商，面向其客户提供服务。有些航空公司只有在 GE 能租给它们设备的情况下才能生存。
GE Capital is the other comparison I'd make with Nvidia. Nvidia is acting a lot like Welch. They're doing some vendor financing. vendor financing, but also with the uh was it GCAS, the airline side over there. Yeah, they kept airlines alive constantly. They were a massive leaser. They were America's largest equipment leaser at one point to their customers. There were airlines that could only survive as long as GE could lease them stuff.
根据 Nvidia 自己的财报，我们正处于这样一个阶段：只有大约三到五家公司能够以任何规模负担得起这些产品，而 Nvidia 必须赚取多得多的钱。也就是说，每个人都处于这种境地。
OpenAI 和 Anthropic 必须疯狂增长，Nvidia 也必须疯狂增长。我认为 Nvidia 之所以提到 70% 这个数字，可能是因为他们很急切。我知道这听起来很疯狂，因为他们目前的业绩数字非常惊人，但要记住，他们也曾下跌过。
人们对 Nvidia 一直有些担忧，他们需要一些令人兴奋的消息。此外，他们在 10-Q 文件中披露了一些令人担忧的内容。里面有一些非常奇怪的东西。他们关于“投资级合作伙伴”可以在 3 个月到 1 年内付款的那项声明，真的很奇怪。
per Nvidia's own earnings, we're at a point where there are like three to five companies that can afford this at any kind of scale and Nvidia has to make so much more money. Like so everyone is in this situation. Open AI and Anthropic have to grow like crazy. Nvidia has to grow like crazy. I think Nvidia may have said the 70% thing because they're desperate. And I know that sounds crazy because they're doing mad numbers, but remember they've been down. People have been a little bit worried about Nvidia. They needed something exciting. Also, they got some concerning in that in that 10Q. There's some really weird stuff. That statement they made about investment grade partners that can pay between 3 months and one year. It's really weird.
所以，你不喜欢看到他们成为自己客户的投资者，甚至在某些情况下成为债权人吗？这似乎是虚假需求或人为制造需求的经典迹象，我应该这么说。
So, you don't like seeing them become investors and in some cases creditors to of their own customers? It seems like a it's the classic sign of illusory demand or artificial demand, I should say.
暂无中文转述，仅英文原句可核对。
Even though Jensen Wong nobody can even define it. Exactly. Jensen Wong said it was here and it's just like shut up Jensen. Come on mate. But the thing is the hypers scale growth story is so difficult for them to meet. It's so crazy. Like even what Jensen Jensen if anyone can pull it off it's Jensen. But to do $670, $690 billion next year probably from the same customers means that Amazon, Google, maybe Microsoft, definitely Meta are going to have to take out a bunch of debt.
去年九月，有三四个 OpenAI 的公告操纵了 SK Hynix、Samsung、AMD 和 Nvidia 的股价。四次公告，什么都没发生，但股票却暴涨了。
last year in September there were like three or four OpenAI announcements that manipulated SKH High, Samsung, uh AMD and Nvidia. Four announcements where nothing happened and the stocks popped.
黄仁勋在这方面做得很好。但我真正的 Nvidia 问题是，我一直在等待提出这个问题。现在感觉是时候了。Nvidia 何时以及如何确认收入？这是一个非常有趣的问题。
And Jensen as well has done so well on this. But here's my real Nvidia question, and I've been waiting to bring this up. It feels like the right time. How and when does Nvidia realize revenue? That is a very interesting question.
Nvidia 何时以及如何确认收入？这是一个非常有趣的问题。当你真正查看他们的财报时，会发现那些应收账款增长了。没人特别注意到这一点。环比增长了 55%。那里发生了什么？为什么你的应收账款？
为什么你的销售天数（DSO）在增长？这是为什么？我们喜欢把它们视为积压订单。但问题是，为什么在你赚更多钱的同时，这个周期还在延长？是因为你达到了能快速收到款项甚至根本收不到款项的边缘吗？
为了增长到 6900 亿美元，你需要给你的客户提供多少额外的宽容度？另外，从技术层面上讲，在会计层面，你可以发货，可以确认收入，但没有任何资金流动。我不知道。也许你对 CoreWeave 很大方。
你真的必须披露这一点。你最终可能会披露，但 Collet Crest 可能不会那么快发送出去。
How and when does Nvidia realize revenue? That is a very interesting question. When you actually look at their earnings, those accounts receivable have grown. Nobody special found this. 55% sequentially. Like what's going on there? Why are your accounts receivable? Why are your daily sales outstanding growing? Like why is that? We like to think of them as backlog. But that's the thing though. Why is this extending as you're making more money? Is that because you're reaching the edge of when you can get money quickly or at all? When does that how much more affordance are you going to have to make your customers to grow to $690 billion? Also, technically on an accounting level, you can ship something and you can count the revenue and no money can pass. I don't know. Maybe you're feeling generous with corewave. You really have to disclose that. You might eventually, but Collet Crest might just not send it
当你真正查看他们的财报时，会发现那些应收账款增长了。没人特别注意到这一点。环比增长了 55%。那里发生了什么？为什么你的应收账款？为什么你的销售天数（DSO）在增长？这是为什么？
When you actually look at their earnings, those accounts receivable have grown. Nobody special found this. 55% sequentially. Like what's going on there? Why are your accounts receivable? Why are your daily sales outstanding growing? Like why is that?
但问题是，为什么在你赚更多钱的同时，这个周期还在延长？是因为你达到了能快速收到款项甚至根本收不到款项的边缘吗？为了增长到 6900 亿美元，你需要给你的客户提供多少额外的宽容度？
But that's the thing though. Why is this extending as you're making more money? Is that because you're reaching the edge of when you can get money quickly or at all? When does that how much more affordance are you going to have to make your customers to grow to $690 billion?
另外，从技术层面上讲，在会计层面，你可以发货，可以确认收入，但没有任何资金流动。我不知道。也许你对 CoreWeave 很大方。你真的必须披露这一点。你最终可能会披露，但 Collet Crest 可能不会那么快发送出去。
他们会推进，因为我们现在没有 SEC。他们会在这里挑战会计花招的绝对极限。这看起来……真的已经很奇怪了。
Also, technically on an accounting level, you can ship something and you can count the revenue and no money can pass. I don't know. Maybe you're feeling generous with corewave. You really have to disclose that. You might eventually, but Collet Crest might just not send it out as quickly. They're going to push because we don't have an SEC right now. They're going to push the absolute limits of accounting shenanigans here. It's It's going to It's already looking really weird.
库存也在增长。Nvidia 有 300 亿美元的云计算协议，即租回他们的 GPU。他们有 250 亿美元的数据中心租赁协议。黄仁勋，你卖给数据中心，为什么你又在租回来？你只是在建造一个数据中心来喂给自己钱吗？
这就是经济的终极要点吗？最终他们想创造一种东西，其中唯一的事情就是把钱递给自己，但钱是通过消耗债务而增加的。
Inventory is growing as well. Nvidia has $30 billion of cloud compute agreements, as in to rent back their GPUs. They have $25 billion of data center lease agreements. Why are they you sell to the data center Jensen? Why are you also renting the you just are you just building a data center to feed yourself money and this is the ultimate point of the economy? This is eventually they wanted to create something where the only thing was just handing yourself money but the money increased by draining debt
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西，一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次，我们不合并，也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
The Compound 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。