NVDA股价短期内将上涨，但长期将跌至2023年水平，原因是其存在类似影子银行的高风险敞口。

So here's the share price for Nvidia. We go from well it might not be today's date because it really popped after that big announcement the other day. But we go back to call it the beginning of 2023. Left to go from zero up to 300 bucks.

You guys know the story. Nvidia was in no man's land. Nobody cared about Nvidia back in 2022 and 2023. Price kind of trending down here, maybe 20 bucks a share.

Then all of a sudden, you get Open AI and people start looking at Nvidia. It pops. It goes up. Goes back and forth here. Then it just goes straight up to the point where we were right around 240 and it comes down.

But then you get the earnings report blowout numbers that likely over the next few months will take the share price even higher. Now the market was expecting maybe 40 45%. Nvidia is coming in at 70% revenue growth looking out over the next 12 months. So I think it's fair to say we'll split the difference. Call it around 50%.

Now their margins incredible gross margins 75%. Wow. The price to sales e 30%. That's maybe a little expensive depending on how you do your fundamental analysis. 50% of their revenue is coming from four companies.

But even if Nvidia follows the path of their twin brother Cisco as far as their business model and their share price crashes, even if that's a matter of when, not a matter of if, the timing component is probably what's most important. So, let's just assume for a moment that Nvidia is at the 1999 stage of Cisco. And we know how this movie ends. It ends with their share price going probably all the way back down to where it was in 2023. But that doesn't mean that it can't go to 400. before it goes all the way back down to 20.

And let's be honest, if Nvidia can actually deliver on what it's saying, 70%, let's say, revenue growth, and let's say it can even increase that somehow and they maintain their margins, what do you think's going to likely happen to the share price? It's probably going to go higher and higher and higher until it doesn't.

So, what I want to do right now in the video is explore what could bring the share price down. I don't know how high it's going to get. In fact, I think it could get much much higher. But the question is what's the catalyst and what could bring that crashing down just like Cisco came crashing down from 2000 to 2003.

And no matter how bullish you are on Nvidia, you have to admit the similarities, not just with the narrative, but the business model with the Cisco of the.com bust.

So, I told you I thought there was some deception involved. And what I'm referring to specifically is exactly what Nvidia does. Now, a lot of you are saying, "George, well, I get what they do. They make GPUs and all these other things just like Cisco provided the hardware." But that's what you were saying earlier and that is correct and I think based on that alone the stock price goes higher and higher and higher at least over the short run.

So what can bring this crashing down? It's actually the business they have turned into.

And this is what's really shocking. It's not necessarily their revenue growth. that might drive the stock price over the short run, but in my view, over the long run, this is what most people are going to focus on because we're in a credit cycle and we're in the end of a credit cycle. And when that credit cycle turns over, then all of these entities that Nvidia has exposure to are going to have problems. And that means that regardless of Nvidia's revenue growth or gross margins, it's going to bring them down as well.

So you see what I'm saying here? You can look at Nvidia as though they're a chip maker and fine, that is their core business, but what they've effectively turned into or what they're morphing into in real time is just another one of these garbage private credit funds that are doing all of this subprime lending. And even if they're not subprime lending, they are taking equity positions or they have balance sheet exposure to all of these companies that are categorized as subprime or if you want to look at the hyperscalers because they have massive exposure there too.

These hyperscalers have exposure to the economic model of AI that if it doesn't pan out exactly like all these rosy expectations, even if they cut their orders just slightly, now all of a sudden the earnings growth goes from 70% down to 20%. And what does that do to the share price?

The bottom line is Nvidia is basically turning itself into a shadow bank that has direct and indirect exposure to all of these companies, even the subprime ones in the ecosystem. And this is the downside risk that nobody is talking about. This is the deception. They take their core business and say, "Oh, look over here. GPUs 70% revenue growth." while over here they're turning themselves into an extremely risky shadow bank and just hoping that nobody looks behind the curtain.

Okay, short-term, long-term much much different. Shortterm and this means over the next 6 months, the next year, my base case is it goes well over 300, probably even over 350, which would take us literally off the charts.

But if we look out into the future, let's just say the next 2 to 3 years, my base case is Nvidia's share price would go right back down close to where it began. Say maybe 40, 50 bucks.