$NVDA

NVDA通过垂直整合(拥有土地/电力/租赁)来缓解GPU需求风险,并通过NVLink Fusion生态系统锁定维持竞争护城河。

看涨他说的是几年内
If You Are an Nvidia Shareholder...Watch What Jensen Is Building!!
Jose Najarro Stocks发布 2026-09-01 · 28 段内容
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28 段内容
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在今天的节目中,我想更仔细地看看 Nvidia,特别是因为有两份关于 Nvidia 的重要报告发布了。首先,他们正在投资这家新的半导体公司。他们为什么要这样做?第二件事与 Anthropic 的大型数据中心有关,以及很多人质疑为什么 Nvidia 参与如此之深。

Now, on today's episode, I want to take a closer look at Nvidia, especially because two big reports came out came out about Nvidia. First, they're investing in the new semiconductor company. Why are they doing that? The second thing has to do with the massive data center for Anthropic and a lot of questioning of why Nvidia is involved so much.

关于 Nvidia 的第一件事是,昨天有一项媒体科技投资。Nvidia 还投资了 35 亿美元购买 MediaTek 发行的可转换债券。

The first thing with Nvidia is there was a media tech investment that came out yesterday. Nvidia has also invested 3.5 billion in convertible bonds issued by MediaTek.

对于那些不熟悉的人来说,Nvidia 的 DGX Spark 是一种桌面级 AI 超级计算机。我大约一周前刚买了一台,现在正在使用它。这是与 MediaTek 合作的。

Nvidia, for those that are not familiar, the DGX Spark, which is kind of this AI supercomput meant as a desktop. I actually just ended up purchasing one about a week ago and working on it right now. that is partnered with MediaTek.

即将推出的笔记本电脑,我忘了它叫什么了。嗯,RTX Spark,这是一款内置 Nvidia AI 超级计算机的笔记本电脑,他们试图在消费级 AI 领域真正与 Apple 竞争。

The upcoming laptop, the I forget what it's called. Um the RTX Spark, which is a laptop that has Nvidia's AI supercomputer in it, where they're trying to really combat Apple in kind of that consumer AI space.

但故事的另一面是定制解决方案,对吧?大型玩家设计自己的 AI 芯片的定制芯片解决方案。对 Nvidia 的担忧,或者说 Nvidia 最大的看空理由之一,一直是超大规模企业设计自己的 AI 芯片。

But the other side of the story is kind of the custom solution, right? that custom solution of chip big players designing their own AI chips. The fear for Nvidia or one of the biggest bare cases for Nvidia has always been hyperscalers designing their own AI chips.

但大约一年前,Nvidia 决定推出 NVLink Fusion,它实际上开放了其生态系统。如果你是一家芯片设计公司,正在设计自己的芯片,你实际上可以使用 Nvidia 已经完成的许多东西。

But Nvidia about a year ago decide to come up with NVLink Fusion where it actually opens up its ecosystem. If you are a chip designer and designing your own chip, you can actually use a lot of the stuff Nvidia has done.

这样做的好处之一是,它让你留在 Nvidia 生态系统中。

And the great thing about this is one it keeps you in the Nvidia ecosystem.

所以,如果你首先是一个超大规模企业,你购买了很多 Barrel Rubins,但将来你想购买很多自己的芯片,通过加入 Nvidia 生态系统,使用 NVLink Fusion,这两种机架之间的协作和通信会变得容易得多,对吧?

如果你按照 Nvidia 设计的类似规格进行设计,如果你需要不断更换,如果你想建立一个数据中心,那个数据中心不会只专注于定制芯片,它可以专注于 Nvidia 的所有产品和你的定制芯片。

So if you're first let's say a hyperscaler and you're buying a lot of barrel rubins but then you in the future you want to buy a lot of your own chips by being part of the Nvidia ecosystem with Nvidia link eusion the collaborations and communication within these two types of racks become a lot easier right if you're designing to similar specs that Nvidia is designing if you need to keep swapping if you want to build one data center that data center is not just going to be focused on a custom chip it could be focused on all of Nvidia's products and your custom chips.

所以,它提供了灵活性,Nvidia 表示,这不再是关于设计芯片的问题,对吧?不再是那样了。这是供应链。这是机架级解决方案。这是通信。这是光学。这是内存,对吧?这是你将 GPU 与 CPU 通信的方式,用于 Atantic 工具。

这是你构建整个机架的方式。这是你构建数据中心的方式。这是你需要的冷却类型。这是你需要的软件类型。这不再仅仅是一块 AI 芯片,对吧?

So, it gives the flexibility and Nvidia says that it's no longer about designing a chip, right? It's no longer about that. It's the supply chain. It's the rack scale solution. It's the communication. It's the optics. It's the memory, right? It's the way you communicate the GPU to the CPUs for Atantic tooling. It's the way you build the whole rack. It's the way you build the data center. It's the type of cooling that you need. It's the type of software that you need. It's no longer just an AI chip, right?

而这正是 Nvidia 通过 NVLink Fusion 真正实现的方向,对吧?Nvidia 不会纯粹地将这些数据分享给竞争对手,对吧?它需要有一个中间人,对吧?一个中间人帮助协调,好吧,这是我们正在合作的部分。这是我们如何连接它的方式。

And and and that's where Nvidia has really gone with this NVLink fusion now, right? Nvidia is not going to share that data purely to its competition, right? What it is, there has to be a middleman, right? A middleman that helps kind of okay, this is the part that we're working with. This is how we're going to connect it with.

因为他们不会分享他们的信息。他们会把它交给一个作为中间人的公司,帮助处理连接过程。所以 Nvidia 会得到某种形式的补偿,即使一家公司设计了自己的 ASIC 或自己的定制 GPU 或 AI 加速器,Nvidia 仍然会赢。

Cuz they're not going to share their information. They're going to give it to someone that's the middleman that helps with the connection process. So Nvidia gets some form of collection, and even if a company designs their own ASIC or own custom GPU or AI accelerator, Nvidia still wins.

通过 NVLink Fusion,你有很多东西,比如内存解决方案、通信解决方案。在这里,他们谈到了 Fusion chiplet,它使用 Nvidia Photonics 或电气互连将 XPU 连接到 Nvidia NVLink 扩展结构。

你有 Nvidia NVLink C2C,它在 XPU 和 Nvidia CPU 之间提供高带宽、高能效的连接。然后你有 Nvidia NV HBM,它集成了定制内存能力,以提高带宽和能效,同时将更多硅片面积用于计算。

With the NDLink fusion, you have a lot of things like memory solutions like communication solutions. Here they talk about it fusion chiplet which is connecting XPUs to the Nvidia NVLink scaleup fabric using Nvidia Photonix or electrical interconnects. You have the Nvidia NVLink C2C which provides high bandwidth energy efficiency connected between XPUs and Nvidia CPUs. And then you have Nvidia NV HBM which is integrating customized memory capabilities to increase bandwidth and energy efficiencies while dedicating more silicon area to compute.

现在,我觉得有趣的是,这是好消息,对吧?我觉得这是 Nvidia 在说,看,我们正在投资更多这样的参与者,因为超大规模企业的需求似乎确实存在。

Now the thing that I found interesting so it's great news right I feel like this is Nvidia saying that look we're investing in more players like this because it does seem like the demand from hyperscalers are there.

我们知道这将成为 NVLink 生态系统的一部分。我想知道,这只是我现在的想法。Broadcom 不是 NVLink Fusion 的一部分,我认为他们不想成为其中一员,但我认为 Google 想成为其中一员,对吧?

Google 想成为这个 NVLink Fusion 的一部分,如果 Broadcom 不想这样做,Nvidia 会说没关系,Broadcom,你不必这样做,但 Google 现在可以选择与我们合作,无论是与 Marvell(他们正在使用 AI 加速器,并将东西附加到 TPU 上,不一定附加到 TPU 本身),现在 MediaTek 也成为了该生态系统的一部分,而 MediaTek 与 Google 的关系也非常密切。

which we know is going to be part of the NVLink ecosystem. I wonder this is just my thoughts right now. Broadcom is not part of the NVLink fusion and I don't think they want to be part of it but I think Google wants to be a part of it right Google wants to be a part of this NVLink fusion and if brocom doesn't want to do it Nvidia says that's okay Brockcom you don't have to do it but Google now has the option to kind of work with us with either Marll which they are with AI accelerators and attach things to the TPUs not necessarily the TPU itself and now you have MediaTek also part of that ecosystem system, which again is pretty close to Google.

Anthropic 将向 Nvidia 支持的云服务提供商 Lambda 支付计算费用,这很有趣。首先,Nvidia 显然已经投资了 Anthropic。然后 Anthropic 将向云服务提供商 Lambda 支付计算费用,而 Lambda 也由 Nvidia 支持,Lambda 将使用 HU 8 开发的数据中心来提供计算,而 HU 8 最近也与 Nvidia 签署了协议。Nvidia 持有该数据中心的租约。

Anthropic will pay Nvidia backed cloud provider Lambda for compute which is funny. First, Nvidia has invested in Anthropic obviously. Then Anthropic will pay cloud provider Lambda for compute which is already which is also backed by Nvidium and Lambda will use data centers developed by HU 8 to provide compute who also recently signed an agreement with Nvidia. Nvidia holds the lease on the data center.

我认为 Nvidia 非常聪明,因为这里的一切看起来都像是循环融资,这非常可怕,但让我分享一下我的想法。Nvidia 在最初看到这波 AI 浪潮时,他们想做的第一件事就是确保 AI 公司没问题,因为它们是推动竞争的力量,而当你推动竞争时,你就推动了创新。

所以,Nvidia 投资了很多 AI 公司。其中很多 AI 公司表现不错,对吧?Nvidia 曾表示,他很可能不会再大量投资 Anthropic 或 OpenAI 或任何其他这些公司,因为它们表现良好。它们,那个生态系统已经建立起来了。

Nvidia I think is really smart cuz everything looks like circular financing around here right and it's super scary but let me share my thoughts. Nvidium when they first saw this AI wave, the first thing they wanted to do is make sure the AI companies were okay because they're the ones that are going to force competition and when you force competition, you force innovation. So, and Nvidia has invested in a lot of AI companies. A lot of those AI companies are doing well, right? Nvidia has said that he's most likely not going to invest in Enthropic or OpenAI or any of these other companies much more because they're doing well. They're they that ecosystem has been created.

好吧。在那个他们不希望失败的生态系统之外。Nvidia 不希望 neocloud 领域失败,对吧?因为你不想只有你的超大规模云服务商成功。你不想只有你的 Google 和 Amazon 成为所有数据中心的主宰,因为那对业务不利。

All right. outside of that ecosystem that they didn't want to fail. Nvidia didn't want the neocloud space to fail, right? Because you don't want just your hyperscalers to succeed. You don't want just your Googles and Amazons to be the rulers of all the data centers because that's bad for business.

所以,Nvidia 做了两件事。首先,为了减少对其中一些参与者的依赖,帮助改善了 neocloud 市场,对吧?另一件事是帮助加速了 AI 基础设施市场。Meta 和所有这些公司原本不会像现在这样在 AI 领域进行大量投资。

几年前,Nvidia 帮助 Coree 建立起来。Nvidia 帮助 Nebas 建立起来。Nvidia 现在正在帮助许多其他 NeoCloud 参与者,但它想为 AI 公司设计的 AI 汽车铺平道路。这就是它所做的。

So, Nvidia did two things. First, to reduce this dependency of some of these players, helped improve the neocloud market, right? The other thing is it helped accelerate the AI the AI infrastructure market. Meta and all these companies weren't going to be investing heavily like they are now in the AI space. A few years ago, Nvidia was helping Coree built up. Nvidia was helping Nebas built up. Nvidia is now helping a lot of other NeoCloud players, but it wanted to build the road map for that AI cars that were designed by the AI companies to move. And that's what it did.

现在 Nvidia 似乎认为接下来的问题之一实际上是土地、电力和外壳。我们确实看到 Nvidia 这样做了。所以现在 Nvidia,我们看到的是它确实与这些土地、电力和外壳提供了大量协议。

Now Nvidia seems to be believing one of the next issues is actually the land power and shell. We actually saw Nvidia do it. So now Nvidia what we see is really providing a nice amount of agreements with these land power and shells.

所以 Anthropic 将从 Lambda 租用 Nvidia 的计算能力。Lambda 将从 Nvidia 购买计算能力,对吧?而且他们不会拥有土地、电力或外壳。Lambda 将从 HUD 8 租用土地、电力和外壳,而最终 Nvidia 持有该数据中心的租约。

So Enthropic is going to rent Nvidia's compute. Lambda from Lambda. Lambda is going to buy the compute from Nvidia, right? And they're not going to own the land power or shell. The lambda is going to rent the land power and shell from HUD 8 and at the end of the day Nvidia holds the lease on that data center.

现在我认为底线也非常重要。Nvidia 持有数据中心的租约。我还认为 Nvidia 不希望超大规模云服务商,而是希望 AI 公司自己拥有计算能力。原因首先是 Nvidia 持有数据中心的租约。

为什么?因为如果 Lambda 或 Anthropic 出了任何问题,Nvidia 仍然拥有这个巨大的电力,这是行业中的一个约束和瓶颈,如果他们持有它,而 Anthropic 或 Lambda 发生了不好的事情,Nvidia 可以将其提供给在 AI 领域成功的另一个客户。

Now I believe that bottom line is also very important. Nvidia holds the lease on the data center. I also believe Nvidia wants not the hypers the AI companies themselves to own the compute itself. The reason being is first Nvidia holds the lease on the data center. Why? Because if anything goes wrong with Lambda or Anthropic, Nvidia still holds this massive power which is a constraint and a bottleneck in the industry that if they hold it and something happens bad to Anthropic or Atlanta, Nvidia can give it to another customer that's succeeding in the AI store.

对吧?如果电力是限制因素,让我尽可能多地获取电力,如果出了任何问题,那电力就很有价值,我可以确保 Nvidia 的解决方案最终出现在这片土地上。

Right? If power is the limitation, let me grab as much power as I can and if anything goes wrong, that power is worth a lot and I can make sure that Nvidia's solution end up in this land.

现在我提到的另一件事是 Lambda,我认为 Nvidia 确实喜欢 Neocloud 拥有很多它,因为如果 Anthropic 出了问题,对吧,如果 Anthropic 出了问题,并不意味着 Lambda 也会出问题,Nvidia 已经与 Lambda 有了这种合作关系,好的,Anthropic 你不需要计算能力了,停止租用,我实际上有另一个客户会很高兴地从你这里拿走这些计算能力,OpenAI 或者也许是 Meta 或者某个刚出现的新初创公司,所以 Nvidia 在我看来确实通过拥有计算能力、拥有土地、电力和外壳、在 Neocloud 领域拥有合作伙伴,消除了 GPU 业务中的很多风险,很多黑暗 GPU。

Now the other thing I mentioned lambda right I think Nvidia does like Neoclouds to own a lot of it because if Anthropic goes bad right if Anthropic goes bad doesn't mean Lambda goes bad Nvidia already has this partnership with Lambda okay anthropic you don't need the compute stop renting it I actually have another customer that will take this compute gladly from you open AI or or maybe Meta or or some new startup that just came up so Nvidia has really in my opinion eliminated a lot of the risk of this GPU business, a lot of dark GPUs by owning the compute, by owning the LAN PowerShell, by having partners in the Neocloud space.

然后,因为他们处于链条的顶端,他们能够看到需求在哪里,如果出现任何问题,他们可以说:“好的,如果你需要更好的客户,或者如果这个客户失败了,这就是你将与之合作的对象。”嗯,然后显然 Nvidia 在我看来帮助推动了 AI 故事的创新,这正在推动我们目前所处的疯狂需求。

And then because they're such a top level in the chain, they are able to see where the demand is and if anything ever sees a hiccup, they can say, "Okay, if you need a better customer or if this customer error fails, this is who you're going to go with." Uh and then obviously Nvidia helped improve in my opinion this innovation in the AI story which is driving the crazy demand that we're in right now.

所以很多人看到循环融资,但所有这一切都发生在不同的时间段。我认为目前的主要焦点是土地、电力和外壳。

So many people see circular financing but all this is happening during different time frames. I think right now the main focus is land power and shell.

现在,我再次认为看涨的将是 NeoCloud 参与者,因为他们的 AI 计算能力。如果你不能在你的计算能力上增加更多的计算能力,那么你在线上的计算能力将价值更高。

Now, what I again think that would be bullish would be the NeoCloud players because their AI compute. If you can't put more compute on your compute that's online is going to be worth a lot more.

与此同时,如果会有黑暗 GPU,我完全相信 Jensen 不会做出他现在正在做的这些类型的投资。对吧。Jensen 在内存上投入如此之多,在供应链上投入如此之多。如果他真的相信 2027 年会有黑暗 GPU,他就不会想这样做,对吧?

因为会发生什么,对吧?如果 2027 年你有黑暗 GPU,那么 2028 年,即使电力疯狂地开启,你仍然有那些黑暗 GPU 需要上线,而且你还有所有这些正在建设的芯片产能。

At the same time, if there are going to be dark GPUs, I would completely believe Jensen would not be making these types of investments that he is doing right now. Right. Jensen is investing so much in memory, so much in in the supply chain. If he truly believes there is dark GPUs in 2027 that he wouldn't want to do that, right? Because what's going to happen, right? If 2027 you have dark GPUs, then 2028, even if you have power turning on like crazy, you still have all those dark GPUs to turn online be and and you have all this chip capacity that is being built out.

这就是为什么我实际上认为 Meta 是我目前最喜欢的 Mag 7 之一,除了 Nvidia 和 Amazon,但我确实相信他出售智能是一件非常非常好的事情,而且它正朝着正确的方向发展。

And this is why I actually think Meta is one of my favorite Mac 7s right now outside of Nvidia and Amazon, but I do believe him selling intelligence is a great great thing and it's going heading in the right direction.

这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断

Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 5 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-01看涨本条
在今天的节目中,我想更仔细地看看 Nvidia,特别是因为有两份关于 Nvidia 的重要报告发布了。
2026-08-30看涨
我知道自从英伟达公布财报以来,我一直相当沉默。英伟达在周三公布了财报。
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