NVDA将GPU定位为可持续产生收入的资产,并广泛拓展至机器人与主权AI生态,这一策略支撑其长期看涨逻辑。
逐段跳播
过去这一周,我们从最大的AI公司Nvidia本身获得了许多很棒的洞见和更新。我相信它们会继续改变AI生态系统。
This past week, we had a lot of great insight and updates from the biggest AI company itself, Nvidia. And I believe they continue continue to change the AI ecosystem.
Jensen本周早些时候也分享了一些信息。他转推称,H100是一款已有三年历史的训练芯片。它的租赁价格本月上涨22%,达到每小时328美元。
Jensen also shared some information earlier this week. Retweeted that the H100 is a three-year-old training chip. Its rental price is up 22% on the month to $328 an hour.
Nvidia CEO表示,Nvidia Compute是可替代的、耐用的,并且具有很高的可租赁性。它是一项能产生收入的生产性资产。
Nvidia CEO says Nvidia Compute is fungeable, durable, and highly rentable. it is a productive revenue generating asset.
第一点是,Nvidia确实在努力展示,他们的GPU与其他类型的算力相比是一种不同类型的资产。
The first thing is Nvidia is really trying to showcase that their GPUs are a different type of asset compared to other types of compute.
他们用数据来展示这一点。他们说,H100,你看,它是一款已有多年历史的芯片。它现在产生的收入仍然比过去更多。
They're showing it with data. They're saying the H100, look, it's a multi-year old chip. It's still generating more revenue than it was in the past.
所以,这又是一个Nvidia真正想向世界展示的数据点,它表明:看,这是一种能够保值、具有市场价值的资产。它不仅保值,还能为你提供一个收入来源。但Nvidia确实在反复强调这一点。
So again, here is another data point that Nvidia is really trying to bring up to the world that says, look, this is a market asset that holds value. Not only does it hold value, but it also provides a revenue source for you. But Nvidia is really hounding on this.
我们在这里看到的是,这正是Nvidia希望确保开源也能持续发展并成为关键参与者的原因,因为有了开源,这个开源模型可以在这款AI芯片上运行得非常好,而不是像,比如说,如果有一些前沿公司以及许多这类私有AI,两者都有各自的空间,但对开源、对开放权重、对Nvidia来说,好处之一在理论上——在理论上——是前沿模型可以说我训练完了,如果他们想的话,对吧,我不认为我们会看到这种情况,但理论上,他们可以说:“我在Nvidia芯片上完成了训练或开发,而这个模型在这款非Nvidia的XY芯片上会表现得非常出色。”
再说一次,我不认为我们会那样做,而且Nvidia在持续改进他们所有的软件栈。由于Nvidia自身内部正在发生的这些进展,任何人那样做都会极其愚蠢。
What we saw here right is and this is why Nvidia wants to make sure open source also continues to develop and becomes a key player because with open source this open source model can run extremely well on this AI chip opposed to like let's say there were a frontier companies in a lot of these private AIS there's a world for both but one of the benefits for open for for openweight for Nvidia is in theory in theory a frontier model can say I'm done training if they wanted to right I don't think we're going to see it but In theory, they can say, "I'm done training or developing on an Nvidia chip, and this model is going to be amazing on this XY chip that's not Nvidia." Again, I don't think we're going to do that, and Nvidia continues to improve all their software stacks. It would be extremely dumb for anybody to do that just because of the developments that are happening within Nvidia itself.
对我来说,浮现出来的几个核心论点是:新的Nvidia代际并不会自动让较旧的GPU在经济上过时,关键在于较旧的GPU是否仍能具有竞争力地运行有用的工作负载,而开放权重模型正是让运营方能够开发并确保你的模型在较旧代际上运行效果相当或强劲的东西。
a few core thesis that came out for me is new Nvidia generations don't automatically make older GPUs economically obsolete what matters is whether an older GPU can still run or useful workloads competitively and openweight models are what let operators you can develop and make sure that your model is running equivalent or strong in older generations.
这也是Nvidia真正努力推进进入开源世界的另一个原因,因为再说一次,这提供了更多需求,也持续让他们能够向那个世界展示较旧的GPU仍然保值。
is another reason why Nvidia is really trying to push into this open- source world because again it provides more demand and it also continues to allow them to show that world where older GPUs still hold value
所以这又是一个数据点,展示Nvidia拥有这种能够持续存在下去的资产,而这会让金融界在为你基于Nvidia生态系统进行建设而放贷时感到安心得多。
So this is just another data point here that is showcasing that Nvidium has this asset that can continue to last over time and then it makes the financial community a lot more comfortable lending out money when you're building on Nvidia ecosystem.
有路透社的报道称,Nvidia有100亿美元的Anthropic IPO支持。我们就是要去确保Anthropic也能存活下来并且表现得极其出色。而且会有极其激烈的竞争压力,这种竞争压力,无论你使用哪种类型的AI芯片,你都会回到我们这里,因为面对竞争,你需要确保自己拥有最好的产品,而我们将拥有市面上最好的产品。
there are reports by Reuters saying that Nvidia mos a 10 billion anthropic IPO backing. We're just going to go and make sure Enthropic is also surviving and doing extremely well. And there's going to be extremely competitive pressure that this competitive pressure, no matter what type of AI chip, you're going to come back to us because with competition, you need to make sure you have the best and we are going to have the best product out there.
现在,接下来我想谈的关于Nvidia的下一件事是,他们确实宣布了Dmatrix采用Nvidia NDLink Fusion进行机架级XPU部署。
Now, the next thing I want to jump into with Nvidia is they did announce that Dmatrix adopts Nvidia NDLink Fusion for rack scale XPU deployment.
所以Nvidia在授权或出售,不管你想怎么说,出售并允许你把任何你想要的XPU整合进Nvidia的生态系统。所以在这里,Raptor是由XPU创造的,但整个AI系统基本上都是Nvidia的。
你将使用Nvidia出色的CPU。你将使用Nvidia的连接器,用于Nyx,以及所有网络解决方案Spectrum X,你将使用NV link,你将使用如此多Nvidia的解决方案,以至于无论你做什么,Nvidia都会赢。
如果你想自己造XPU,那很好,你仍然需要,再说一次,XPU只是第一步,AI加速只是第一步,你需要和我们一起,因为你需要有机架架构、电力、冷却、软件,更重要的是供应链,对吧?
So Nvidia is licensing or selling out, however you want to do it, selling out and allowing you to integrate whatever XPU you want to Nvidia's ecosystem. So here Raptor is created by the XPUs, but the whole AI system is pretty much Nvidia. You're going to be using Nvidia's great CPU. You're going to be using Nvidia's connect connector uh for for Nyx and all the networking solutions spectrum X you're going to use NV link you're going to use so much of Nvidia solutions that Nvidia is going to win no matter what you do if you want to make your own XPU that's great you still need again XPU is only the first step the AI acceleration is only the first step you need to come with us because you need to have the rack architecture the power the cooling the software and like more importantly the supply chain, right?
所以,即使Nvidia不卖芯片,他们仍然能够卖其他所有东西,这相当相当不错。除了Nvidia真正在改变金融世界之外,他们还试图做的是尽可能多地锁定土地、电力和厂房。我们大约一周前谈过这个,当时Nvidia基本上真正解释了土地、电力和厂房是整个领域的一个巨大制约因素。
So, even if Nvidia doesn't sell the chips, they're still going to be able to sell everything else, which is pretty pretty damn good. Outside of Nvidia really shake changing the financial world what they're trying to also do is secure as much land power and shell. We talked about this a few about a week ago where Nvidia kind of really explains that land power shell is a massive constraint in the overall space.
所以Nvidia通过与澳大利亚数据中心生态系统的合作来扩大其AI基础设施产能。他们提到的一些名字包括Sharon AI和I rent,他们正在建设到2027年高达2吉瓦的产能。
So Nvidia expands their AI infrastructure capacity in partnerships with Australia's data center ecosystem. Some of the few names that they mentioned were firm Sharon AI and I rent and they're building up to 2 gawatt built out by 2027.
现在,Jensen提到,2027年全年2吉瓦并不算疯狂。并不算多,但2吉瓦对Nvidia来说仍可能意味着约800亿美元的收入。
Now 2 gawatt for for whole year of 2027 Jensen mentioned is not that crazy. It's not that much, but still 2 gigawatts is about $80 billion in revenue potentially for Nvidia.
这就是为什么Nvidia正试图成为AI的平台。他们所说的平台的意思是,他们帮助你做你需要做的事。你不必担心Nvidia与你竞争。
This is why Nvidia is trying to become a platform of AI. And what they mean with the platform is they help you do what you need to do. You're not going to worry about Nvidia competing against you.
所以 Nvidia 说:“看,我们有这套 Nvidia DGX 计算基础设施解决方案,还有这个 DSX 平台,向你展示如何完成这一切。拿去用吧。现在你将能够在澳大利亚各地建设大规模数据中心。”
So Nvidia says, "Look, we have this Nvidia DGX compute infrastructure solution and this DSX platform that showcases you how to do all this. Take it, run with it. Now you're going to be able to build massive data centers all over Australia."
另一件事我也觉得相当酷。Nvidia 和 Palanteer 将主权智能带入关键供应链。以及用于复杂供应链运营的定制 Nvidia Neotron 开放模型。
Now the other one I thought was also pretty cool. Nvidia and Palanteer brings sovereign intelligence to critical supply chains. and custom Nvidia Neotron open models for complex supply chain operations.
还有什么比从 Nvidia 自身的运营开始更好的起点呢。Nvidia 与成千上万的供应链供应商合作,涉及成千上万的零部件和设备,Nvidia 说:“看,我们将使用 Palunteer 的 AIP,你们将帮助我们改善我们的供应链。”
And what better place to start than with Nvidia's own operations. Nvidia works with thousands and thousands of supply chain suppliers of thousands and thousands of pieces and parts of equipments that Nvidia says, "Look, we're going to use Palunteer's AIP and you're going to help us make our supply chain better.
如果你们能为我们做到这一点,那么你们在其他参与者身上所能做到的事情将会是惊人的。这就是我非常喜欢 Nvidia 的原因,对吧?Nvidia 会去尝试构建市场,对吧?它在所有事情上都是这么做的。
它会去构建市场。它说:“你想看看 AI 用例在哪里吗?我的供应链非常疯狂。我和 Palanteer 将向你展示,我们能够大幅改善它,因为这样一来,你的供应链就可以来找 Palanteer,做任何你需要做的事。
然后如果 Palanteer 赢了,你很可能就会使用 Palanteer 所提供的模型选择。而且你很可能最终会与 Nebius 合作,这意味着你无论如何都会与 Nvidia 合作。
所以 Nvidia 真的在努力成为这样一个整体平台。”
If you can do this for us, whatever you're going to be able to do with other players is going to be insane." And this is why I like Nvidia a lot, right? Nvidia Nvidia goes and and and tries to build the market, right? It has done that with everything. It goes and builds the market. It says, "You want to see where AI use cases are there? My supply chain is crazy. Me and Palanteer are going to show you that we're going to be able to improve it dramatically because then your supply chain, you can come to Palunteer and be able to do whatever you need to do. And then if Palanteer wins, you're most likely going to be using Palanteer's model selection that they have. And most likely you're going to be partnering up with Nebius, which means you're going to be partnering up with Nvidia one way or another. So Nvidia is really trying to become this overall platform.
接下来,他们确实谈到了当前行业内正在发生的一些机器人相关的事情。他们分享了一些解决方案,我们看到物理 AI 达到了一个新的水平。他们谈到了各种不同类型的解决方案,从消费市场,到 AI 如何帮助工厂运作,再到 Nvidia 如何成为整个生态系统的一部分——从训练、从推理,甚至更早,从仿真、软件栈开始,诸如此类,说也说不完。
目前我会说没有什么具有革命性的东西,但这是一个长期逻辑。
Next, they do talk about some of the robotics things happening in the industry right now. They shared some solutions that we are seeing physical AI reach a new front of level. uh they talk about all different types of solutions from kind of the consumer market how AI's helping the factory work and how Nvidia is part of the whole ecosystem from training from inference from even prior to that with simulation the software stack and the gly goes on and on nothing that I would say is revolutionary right now but is a long-term thesis
他谈到了 Whimo,他谈到了他们与 Mercedes 的合作,以及 Nvidia 如何成为从训练计算机开始的整个生态系统的一部分。
he talks about Whimo He talks about their partnership with Mercedes and how Nvidia is part of this whole ecosystem from training computer.
你有 Nvidia 的 DGX 系统。你还有 Nvidia 的 Alpamo,这是他们展示的开放推理视觉语言动作模型,并且大幅改善了错误。
You have Nvidia's DGX system. You also have Nvidia's Alpamo which is their open reasoning vision language action model that they showcase and has improved improved errors dramatically.
然后在仿真方面,他们有 Omniverse 软件解决方案。他们有 Cosmos。他们有 Nvidia 的 RTX Pro,非常适合系统的验证和仿真,然后还投资于 Nvidia drive Hyperion、drive AGX,以及他们在其中拥有的各种座舱和软件解决方案,还有类似 Nvidia halos 这样的安全解决方案。
Then for simulations they have the Omniverse software solutions. They have the Cosmos. They have Nvidia's RTX Pro which are great for validation and simulations of systems and then invests with the Nvidia drive Hyperion with drive AGX and whatever kind of cockpit and software solutions they also have in there and kind of safety solutions like the Nvidia halos.
所以 robotaxi 的领导者们正在获胜,而 Nvidia 将与他们一起获胜。Nvidia 与 Whimo 合作,他们与 Uber 合作。他们与 boat 合作。他们与 Lyft 合作。
So robo taxi leaders are are winning and Nvidia is going to win with them. Nvidia partners with Whimo, they partner with Uber. They partner with boat. They partner with Lyft.
他们甚至以某种方式与 Tesla 合作,Tesla 在某些训练和推理解决方案中使用他们的技术。Nvidia 只是在展示 robotaxi 的世界已经到来。
They even partner with Tesla in a way where Tesla uses their technology for certain training and inference solutions. Nvidia is just showcasing that the robo taxi world is here.
现在我想以两件事来结束这一集。Nvidia 确实在 9 月 10 日举行了一场 Goldman Sachs 科技大会。我想展示一些我认为重要的内容,因为是 Jensen 亲自为这个社区出面。
Now the way I want to end this episode actually two things. Nvidia did have a Goldman Sachs technology conference on September 10th. I want to showcase some of the things that I thought were important because it was Jensen who did come out for this community.
首先,他确实大力强调了我在这一集开头所提到的这一点,即 Nvidia 想让 Nvidia 计算从一项技术变成一种可投资资产。
First, he he kind of really pushes on this what I started off at the beginning of the episode where Nvidia wants to make Nvidia compute from a technology to an investable asset.
而且他认为,这将是一个巨大的关键推动因素,让人们认识到他们的计算系统具有长期价值,并且具有持久价值。目前,这些价值都没有被计入,这对他们来说是一个巨大的未开发机会。
And he thinks this is going to be a huge needle mover for people to recognize that their computing systems have a long-term value and has durable value. At the moment, none of that is being valued and that is a huge untapped opportunity for them.
假设他们以约 600 亿美元出售 1 吉瓦的数据中心。你会把这分摊到五六年。所以是每年 100 亿美元。显然,算上所有其他开支会略多一点,但为了简单计算,就假设每年 100 亿美元。
如你们所知,这 100 亿目前以约 500 亿美元的价格出租出去。所以目前每吉瓦的收入约为 500 亿美元。
Let's say they sell 1 gawatt of data sensor for around $60 billion. You're going to break that over five six years. So $10 billion a year. Obviously a little bit more with all the other expenses, but let's say $10 billion a year for some simple math. That 10 billion is currently being rented out at around $50 billion as you guys know. So the revenue per gigawatt right now is about $50 billion.
如果这个数字是真的,你将看到数据中心建设的大爆发。因为如果你告诉我,我每年投入 10 美元,就能每年从中获得 50 美元,我会一遍又一遍又一遍又一遍地这么做。
If this number is true, you're going to see an explosion of data centers being built out. Because if you're telling me I can put something for $10 a year and I'm going to get $50 every year on it, I'm going to do that over and over and over and over again.
如果AI的需求继续增长,我预计这一解决方案会继续被需要。然后他们提到,你仍然可以租用Voltus。Volt是一款已有10年历史的产品。而目前Miers也仍然在售罄,这是一款超过五六年的产品。
And if the man for AI continues to grow, I expect this solution to continue to to continue to be needed. And then they mentioned that you can still rent out Voltus. Volt is a 10-year-old product. And right now the Miers are still also selling out which is over a 5 six year old product.
Jensen谈到的另一件事是供应链。供应链对他们来说极其关键。想想他所有的合作伙伴。有多少NeoCloud在向他们反馈?有多少OEM在向他们反馈?有多少云厂商在向他们反馈?有多少AI原生公司在向他们反馈?
他们在和所有人合作。所以,他们什么都知道。这相当惊人。
Now the other thing Jensen talks about is the supply chain. the supply chain is super critical for them. Just think about all his partners. How many NeoClouds are reporting back to them? How many OEMs are reporting back to them? How many clouds are reporting back to them? How many AI native companies are reporting back to them? They are working with everybody. So, they know everything. It's pretty amazing.
而这正是让我兴奋的地方。这就是我关注Nvidia的原因,因为他们在整个AI故事的生态系统中都有耳朵和眼睛。所以,如果他们告诉我某件事正在发生,我真的真的会非常重视他们说的话,因为即使我们作为消费者看不到,他们已经在某个地方看到了,而他们对此发声,就说明这件事很快就会发生。
And this is what gets me excited. This is why I follow Nvidia because they have ears and eyes in the whole ecosystem in the AI story. So if they tell me one thing is happening, I am truly truly going to put a lot of weight to what they say because they even if we as the consumer don't see it, they've already seen it somewhere and for them to say something about it, it but it mentions that it's going to happen pretty soon.
AI智能体,对吧,是突然冒出来的,但Nvidia早已有了产品,ChatGPT,Nvidia早已有了解决方案,而我们继续看到这一点,对吧?
The AI agents, right, that came out of nowhere, but Nvidia already had the products, chat GPT, Nvidia already had the the solutions and we continue to see that, right?
Vera Rubin非常适合工具调用,这正是我们目前所看到的。所以对我来说,对Nvidia的兴奋以及这里创新的增长是存在的,因为Nvidia看到了整个生态系统,我认为这对他们来说是一项极其极其巨大的资产。
The Vera Rubin is perfect for tool calling, which is what we're seeing right now. So to me the excitement for Nvidia and the growth in innovation here is there because Nvidia sees the whole ecosystem and I think that is a massive massive asset for them.
他们提到的另一件事,这也许是为了让投资者兴奋,他们提到在Grace Blackwell解决方案中,NVLink在Grace Blackwell上环比增长了约72%,不是Vera Rubin。所以这非常巨大。
Another thing that they mentioned this is maybe for for investor excitement they mentioned that in the Grace Blackwell solution the envy link they saw about a 72% increase month overmonth on the Grace Blackwell not the Vera Rubin. So that's massive.
他们确实向我们透露了下一个解决方案是什么。Jensen认为网络安全很可能会是AI的下一个重大应用场景,并且会持续运行。
They do give us a shout out of what's the next solution. Jensen believes that the cyber security will likely be the next major use case of AI and is going to run continuously.
我得确保给自己买一台DGX Spark。我需要尽可能多地在家里进行计算,因为我相信本地模型,不仅仅是开源模型,将会非常疯狂。
I got to make sure I bought myself a DGX Spark. I need to compute in my house as much as possible because I believe local, not only open-source models are going to be crazy.
但我也相信,本地解决方案以及本地需求的强度将会出现巨大的爆发。所以我最终买了一台Dichi X Park,目前正在做一些相当酷的东西。
But I also believe there's going to be a huge explosion in local solutions in the strength of local demand. So I ended up picking up a Dichi X Park working on some pretty cool stuff right now.
观察点
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 10 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。