$NVDA

NVDA 是一只高质量成长股,财务状况强劲,且相对于其快速的盈利增长,估值具有吸引力,构成罕见的投资机会。

看涨他说的是几年内
《Is This The Most Powerful Growth Stock On The Planet And The Least Risky? | FAST Graphs》
FAST Graphs发布 2026-09-16 · 28 段内容
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但到了最近这段时间,要找到增长已经非常困难。所以我很兴奋能谈谈我称之为AI之王的Nvidia。我们将深入剖析这家公司,真正把它拆解开来。我还把它输入了我们新的AI工具Charles,它基本上会谈谈这家公司到底有多强大。

But now in more recent times, it's been very hard to find growth. And so I'm very excited to talk about the king of AI, as I call it, Nvidia. And we're going to go through this company and really take it apart.

And I've also put it through our new AI, Charles, which is basically going to talk about how powerful this company really is.

话不多说,让我们直接进入Nvidia的fast graphs,谈谈为什么我喜欢这家公司,适合任何对长期总回报感兴趣的人。即便对收益型投资者来说,我认为在投资组合里装一个涡轮增压器也是有道理的。

所以,你可能想把大部分资金投在保守型收益上,但你的组合里仍然有空间容纳像Nvidia这样的强力引擎。

But without further, let's go ahead and get into the fast graphs on Nvidia and talk about why I like this company for anyone interested in a long-term total return. And even for income investors, I believe having a turbocharger on your portfolio also makes sense.

So, you might want to have most of your money invested for conservative income, but you still have room in your portfolio for a powerhouse like Nvidia.

这是调整后的营业利润,你可以看到这家公司过去有点不太靠谱。如果我用这里的粗略估算,Nvidia的盈利带有一定的半周期性。但随着我们进入更近的时期,可以看到盈利已经爆发式增长。

This is adjusted operating earnings and you can see the company had kind of a sketchy past. If I use my skull bra here, Nvidia had some semicyclical earnings. But as we come into more modern times, we can see that the earnings have exploded.

现在,当我把周度股价放上去,这是调整后的营业利润。顺便说一句,当我把周度股价放到图上时,你可以看到股价与盈利是相关的。即便在公司更具周期性的时候,盈利与市场价格之间的这种关系也非常强劲地存在。

但一旦盈利开始加速,估值也随之加速。到那时,Nvidia确实是在创造强劲的增长。

Now, when I put weekly stock price, this is adjusted operating earnings. By the way, when I put weekly stock prices on the graph, you can see that the price correlated with the earnings.

Even when the company was more cyclical, we had this relationship between earnings and market price that existed very powerfully. But once earnings began to accelerate, then we had some accelerated valuation going on.

And at that point, Nvidia really was creating just powerful growth.

回溯到2018年以来的平均增长——顺便说一句,这是以1月为财年结束——平均超过60%。如果我把时间区间缩短,实际上加速到了超过70%。

The average growth since going back to 2018, this as a January fiscal year, by the way, has been averaged over 60%. If I shorten the time frame, it actually accelerated over 70%.

现在,这是调整后的营业利润。有意思的是,也是我喜欢这家公司的地方:如果我看摊薄每股收益,那里能看到很多会计惯例的影响,我们得到的是同样的图景。增长强劲,甚至高于我们在营业利润中看到的水平,而仅看摊薄每股收益,股价也低于盈利所支撑的估值线。

Now, this is adjusted operating earnings. What's interesting and what I like about this company, if I look at diluted earnings, where you could see a lot of accounting convention, we get the same picture.

Powerful growth even higher than what we saw in operating earnings and a stock price that's trading below the earnings justified valuation line looking at just diluted earnings.

但让我们看看其他一些方面。这家公司确实支付一笔非常小的股息。你可以在这里通过金线看到。它一直在增加。但如果看现金流,看经营性现金流,我们会发现股息被经营性现金流大幅覆盖。所以即便从股息的角度看,这家公司作为长期投资也显得有意思。

But let's look at some others. The company does pay a very small dividend. You can see that here by the gold line. It's been increasing. But if we look at cash flow, look at operating cash flow, we see that the dividend is massively covered by operating cash flow.

So even from a dividend perspective, this company looks interesting as a long-term investment.

如果我看自由现金流对股东权益,我再次看我称之为资产测试的东西。自由现金流非常稳定,就像我们看过的其他每一个指标一样,并且能够覆盖它。

If I look at free cash flow to equity, I'm looking again at what I call the asset test. free cash flow is very consistent just like every other metric we've looked at and covers it.

现在我可以借助fastgrass看其他指标。我可以看IBA,即息税折旧摊销前利润。我再次看到价值,股价低于预期的未来增长率。我可以看EBA或净利润,也能看到非常相似的图景,股价低于。

即便我只看纯粹的销售额或收入,我也看到股价低于其市销率,或者从这个短期框架的角度看,交易在一个非常有吸引力的市销率上。

Now I can look at other measures with fastgrass. I can look at IBA earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, advertisation. Once again I see value the price trading below the expected future growth rate.

I can look at EBA or net income and I can also see a very similar picture where the price is below. And even if I go to just pure sales or revenues, I also see that the price is trading below its price per sale or it's trading in a from a standpoint of this short-term frame, a very attractive price to sales ratio.

现在,我继续在Charles里——这是我们最近添加到FastCrafts的AI工具——把Nvidia输入Charles,以下是我得到的一些答案,我就为你们重点标出这些。Nvidia的竞争优势是什么?

它是持久的。是在加速计算和AI基础设施上的平台级领先,而不仅仅是一块更快的芯片。它的竞争地位似乎包括高性能GPU和网络、成熟的软件生态和开发者锁定、与超大规模厂商和AI客户的规模,以及非常高的盈利能力。

Now, I went ahead in Charles, our AI tool that we've recently added to FastCrafts, and I ran Nvidia through Charles, and here's some of the answers I got, and I'm just going to highlight these for you.

What is Nvidia's competitive advantage? It is durable. It's a platform level lead in accelerated computing and AI infrastructure, not merely a faster chip. Its competitive position appears to include high performance GPUs and networking, a mature software ecosystem and developer lock in scale with hyperscalers and AI customers, very high profitability.

让我们看看其中一些。正如Charles所说,财务证据异常强劲。过去12个月收入为3030亿。毛利润为2260亿,意味着74.7%的毛利率。营业利润1970亿以上,营业利润率为67%,净利润1920亿,也给了我们63.7%的净利润率。

投入资本回报率为89%,净资产收益率110%,资产回报率超过81%。这些是强劲而非凡的数字。

And let's look at some of that. The financial evidence, as Charles says, is unusually strong. Last 12-month revenues were 303 billion. Gross income was 226 billion implying a 74.7% gross margin.

Operating income of 197 billion plus was a 67% operating margin and net income of 192 billion also gave us a 63.7 net margin. Return on invested capital was 89% return on equity 110% and return on assets over 81%. These are powerful extraordinary numbers.

趋势也是强劲的,而非孤立的:年收入从609亿到2025财年的1300亿,2026财年预计为2150亿。季度收入继续加速,从810亿到960亿。

The trend is also powerful rather than isolated annual revenue from 60.9 billion to 130 billion in fiscal 25 and 215 billion in fiscal 2026 expected. quarterly revenue continued to accelerate from 81 billion to 96 billion.

所以,我不会带你们把这一切都过一遍。你们当中是订阅用户的,把它输入Charles。就问那六个问题。但是,Nvidia能挺过低迷吗?能。基于当前的资产负债表,它有很强的抵御低迷的能力或容量。

Cassid的短期投资超过990亿。总债务只有380亿。它们可以用现金流把债务偿还三倍。净债务为600亿,意味着Nvidia的现金和短期投资比债务多600亿。股东权益2290亿。

流动资产197。Fast facts,流动比率为4.59%。非常强劲。所有债务都被很好地覆盖。速动比率相同。长期债务占资本不到14%,长期债务对权益只有16%。所以这里我们有一家非常快速、强劲增长的公司,创造着巨大的现金流,债务却非常少。

所以从传统的偿付能力意义上说,资产负债表风险很低。

So, I'm not going to go through all this with you. Those of you who are subscribers, run it through Charles. Just ask the six questions. But, can Nvidia survive a downturn? Yes.

Based on the current balance sheet, it has substantial downturn capabilities or capacity. Cassid's short-term investments over 99 billion. Total debt only 38 billion. They could pay their debt three times over with their cash flow.

Net debt is 60 billion, meaning Nvidia has 60 billion more cash and short-term investments than debt. Shareholders equity 229 billion. Current assets 197. Fast facts, current ratio is 4.59%.

Very powerful. All debt is well covered. Quick ratio the same. Long-term debt to capitals less than 14% and long-term debt to equity is only 16%. So here we have a very fast powerful growing company creating enormous cash flows and has very minimal debt.

So the balance sheet risk is low in a conventional solveny sense.

更相关的风险是应收账款、库存和客户融资的增长是否快于底层需求。

The more relevant risk is whether receivables, inventory and customer financing grow faster than the underlying demand.

现在管理层质量,这是好的管理层。这只是运气吗?虽然证据支持非常有能力的管理层,尽管商业环境异常有利,这是一点,这里有两点。我们有一个非常有利的商业环境,而管理层处理得很好。

Now management quality, it's good management. Is it just luck? While the evidence favors very capable management, although the business environment has been unusually favorable, and that's a point, there's two points there.

We got a very favorable business environment, and management has handled it well.

所以,我可以继续讲下去,但让我们看看估值和增长,这是我最关心的。按最新价格约211美元,我们就这么叫吧,它的混合市盈率为28,五年正常市盈率为48,PG比率为0.5,每股收益复合年增长率为一年59%、三年142%、五年80%。

换句话说,市盈率——也就是增长公式,是我们构建fast graphs所依据的彼得·林奇公式,即P等于增长率——大幅低于。换句话说,当前估值大幅低于增长率,正如你在这里的图上清楚看到的。所以,我们看的是一家非常强大的公司。

So, I can go on through this, but let's look at valuation and growth, which is near and dear to my heart. At the latest price of around $211, we'll call it, it trades at a blended PE of 28, a five-year normal PE of 48, a PG ratio of 0.5, and an earnings per share compound annual growth rate of 59% for one year, 142% for three years, and 80% for 5 years.

In other words, the PE, which is the growth formula, is Peter Lynch's formula that we built fast graphs on, which is P equals growth rate, is substantially below. In other words, the current valuation is substantially below growth rate, as you can see here in the graph clearly. So, we're looking at a very powerful company.

现在,存在风险。增长可能正常化并大幅放缓。好吗?在竞争和客户内包方面。云服务提供商和大型科技公司可能开发定制AI。这是一个可能的风险。尽管它们如此根深蒂固,我不认为这算多大的风险。

Now, there are risks. The growth could normalize and slow down dramatically. Okay? in competitive and customer insourcing. Cloud providers and large technology companies may develop custom AI.

That's a possible risk. Although they're so well entrenched, I don't see that as much of a risk.

然后我可以继续把这一切过一遍。但再次,如果你有FastCrafts的订阅,高级订阅,就去把它输入Charles,因为结论是股息被经营性现金流和自由现金流两者都异常好地覆盖。正如我所说明的,真正的问题不是股息安全性。

而是Nvidia能否向股东返还更多资本,而不是将其再投资。这仍是一个有待回答的问题。

And then I can just go on through all this. But again, if you have a subscription to FastCrafts, a premium subscription, go ahead and run this through Charles because the conclusion is the dividend is exceptionally well covered by both operating cash flow and free cash flow.

As I illustrated, the real question is not dividend safety. It's whether Nvidia could return more capital to the shareholders versus reinvesting it. And that's a question still to be answered.

但当我从预测的角度看这家公司时,我看到的是同样的东西。分析师预计未来盈利增长将非常、非常可观。让我先把Charles关掉一会儿。我们看到的是54%的预期增长。我确实想让你们注意到,对于截至1月的2027财年以及2028财年,分析师预期实际上一直在上调,相比一个月前、三个月前和六个月前。

而且它们从2028年的1041美元大幅上调,现在预期为1578美元。

But when I look at the company from a forecasting perspective, I see the same thing. Analysts expect earnings growth to be very, very substantial going forward. Let me go ahead and close Charles here for a moment.

We're looking at 54% expected growth. And I do want you to notice that the analyst estimates have actually been increasing from the last month ago, three months ago, and six months ago for fiscal year 2027 ending in January, as well as fiscal year 2028.

And they've increased a bunch from $1041 in 2028, now expecting $1,578.

那么,这里发生了什么?我想让你注意,2025 年我们的盈利为 5 美元或不到 5 美元。我们预计 2027 年这一数字几乎翻倍,2028 年增长约 70%。如果这些估算正确,我们看到的潜在盈利是 21 美元。

Now, what's happening here? I want you to note that we had earnings of $5 or under $5 in 2025. We expect that to be almost double for 2027, up about 70% for 2028. And we're looking at $21 of potential earnings if these estimates are correct.

从分析师评分卡来看这家公司,他们在一年期、一年前瞻以及两年前瞻上几乎有着无可挑剔的纪录,绝大多数时候都超出、达到或击败了预期。

And looking at the company from an analyst scorecard, they have almost an impeccable record for one year and as well as one year forward as well as two year forward where they've exceeded met exceeded or beat the estimates the vast majority of the time.

现在,用 fast graphs,你可以计算出那个回报率可能是多少。我只是简单地取最后的价格,然后根据这些近期估算走到这里的最后一个三角形,我就得到了一个机会,可以在至少未来三年里每年实现资金翻倍的年度回报率。那是超过 54% 的复合年增长率。

Now, with fast graphs, you can calculate what that rate of return might be. I just simply take the last price and go out here to the last triangle based on these near-term estimates, and I get an opportunity to earn an annual rate of return of doubling your money every year for at least the next three years.

That's a compound annual growth rate of over 54%.

那么这意味着市盈率从当前明显低得多的水平上升到 54 倍市盈率。正如我指出的,当前的混合市盈率大约在 31,正如我们所见,在 fastfax 上这里显示的是 28。所以,我们有高利润率、高预期增长,我们还有市盈率扩张,再加上一点点股息,这给了我们赚取巨额财富的机会。

Now what this means is the PE ratio rises to a 54 PE from a current PE that's obviously much less than that. As I pointed out the current PE blended PE is around 31 as we can see you know it's showing 28 on the fastfax here.

So, we've got high margin, high expected growth, and we also have PE expansion plus a little smidgen of a dividend that gives us the opportunity to make an incredible amount of money.

这里的风险很高。风险之所以高,唯一的原因是我们看到的增长率非同寻常,超出了任何我会称之为正常公司的能力范围。但这是一家一直在实现那种增长的公司,而且它才刚刚触及 AI 的表面。

正如我们之前提到的,他们与 Charles 有着稳固的关系,而且如果这些数字哪怕有一点正确,我们面对的都是一个非常有吸引力的估值。

And the risk here is high. And the only reason the risk is high is because we're looking at growth rates that are extraordinary, beyond the capacity of any what I would call normal company.

But here's a company that's been delivering that kind of growth and it's just scratching the surface of AI. They're well entrenched as we mentioned earlier with with Charles and we've got a very attractive valuation if these numbers are correct at all.

唯一看起来有点贵的地方是市销率,但即便是市销率,如果它以正常的市销率交易,你在这里仍然会看到一个机会,可以产生超过 21% 的年化回报率,几乎让你的资金增长近 100%。但所有其他这些指标讲述了一个更重要的故事。

它们告诉我们调整后的营业收入。我的意思是,营业利润是我最看重的。

The only place where this looks a little expensive would be on price to sales where the price but even with price to sales if it traded at a normal price to sales you'd still be looking at an opportunity here to generate annualized rates of return of over 21% almost having your money increase almost 100%.

But all these other metrics tell a more important story. They tell us adjusted operating income. I mean operating earnings is the one my go-to.

现在,在我离开并结束这个视频之前,让我们稍微谈一谈这个。如果一家公司能以这么快的速度增长盈利,那意味着这家企业今天正在为股东创造非凡的未来增长。而如果你能以较低的估值买入它,你也就获得了让这种杠杆发挥作用的能力。

所以,把数字推算到合乎逻辑的结论,这里的诀窍是你必须非常非常仔细地监控这种增长,有很多方法可以做到这一点,你可以看各种网站,比如 Google 和像 seeking alpha 这样的网站等等,但你要监控每一份季度报告,以确保公司的增长在扩大,因为这么快的增长,尤其是对于一家市值超过五万亿美元的公司来说,是非同寻常的,而这就是你真正的风险所在。

Now let's talk about this just a little bit before I leave and close this video. If a company can grow earnings this fast, that means the business is creating extraordinary future growth for the shareholders today.

And if you can buy it at a lower at a low valuation, you also get the ability to get that leverage going on here. So running the number out to the logical conclusion sense the trick here is you have to monitor this growth very very carefully and there's a lot of ways you can do that you can look at all kind of sites like Google and sites like seeking alpha and so on but you want to monitor each quarterly report to make sure that the company's growth is expanded because growth this fast especially for a company of over five trillion in market cap is beyond extraordinary and that is where your real risk lies.

但如果你想给你的投资组合加涡轮,或者你只是想,或者如果你是一个成长型投资者,你只是在寻找最大的增长,我真的看不出你怎么会在这样一只极其高质量的成长股上出错。它是 doubleA 评级的。

债务与资本之比低于 6%。所有债务都被覆盖。他们的现金流和手头现金远远超过任何债务。所以,这是一个真正的机会,也是当今市场上你能找到的罕见的成长机会之一。

But if you're looking to turbocharge your portfolio or you just want if or if you're a growth investor and you're just looking for maximum growth, I don't really see how you could go wrong on this extremely high quality growth sock.

It's doubleA rated. Debt to capital is less than 6%. All the debt is covered. They have cash flow and cash on hand far exceeding any debt. So, this is a real opportunity and it's one of the rare growth opportunities you can find in today's market.

但我确实相信,这是当今世界 AI 之王,也是成长股之王。

But I do believe this is the king of AI and the king of growth stocks in today's world.

这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断

FAST Graphs 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-16看涨本条
但到了最近这段时间,要找到增长已经非常困难。所以我很兴奋能谈谈我称之为AI之王的Nvidia。
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