NVDA值得买入；技术面显示即将突破，并受到强劲的自由现金流预测和1500亿美元回购的支撑。
逐段跳播
Nvidia 看起来像是想要——我应该，让我把这话说准确。让我把这话说准确。Nvidia 看起来像是想要突破。
Nvidia's looks like it wants to I should let me phrase this let me phrase this correctly. Nvidia looks like it wants to break out.
关于 Nvidia 近期的交易和活动，有几件事让我印象深刻。那我就直接描述一下我在这里看到的情况。这是一只在 5 月大幅上涨的股票，当时它所有的客户，也就是那些超大规模云厂商，不仅公布了财报，还公布了前瞻指引和它们的资本开支计划。
A couple of things struck me about the recent trading and activity in uh Nvidia. So, I'm just going to narrate what I see here. This is a stock that had a massive runup in May when all of its customers, the hyperscalers were reporting not only earnings but forward guidance and their capex plans.
基本上，它们证实了我们都已经知道的事，那就是它们不仅在这个即将到来的季度和今年余下的时间里要花钱，而且就目力所及，它们都得继续花，因为它们已经做出的投资要求它们继续支出。
And basically they ratified what we all already know which is that not only are they spending this coming quarter and for the rest of the year, but as far as the eye can see because the investments they've already made demand that they continue to spend.
Nvidia，尽管数据中心还有其他可用的芯片，还有其他组件，有 AS6，有 CPU，但就我目力所及，GPU 集群仍将是数据中心的绝对主力。
Um Nvidia although there are other chips available for data centers there are other components there are AS6 there are CPUs um the GPU clusters are still going to be the the workh horses for the data centers for as far as the I can see.
回到图表。基本上，它在 5 月那些报告陆续出炉时上涨，然后我们经历了一次我认为相当有序的回调，跌到 200 日移动均线，当时那条均线在 199 到 200，从那个水平反弹了两次。
又回到 200 多，然后就一直在等待时机，基本上在 235 这个突破位下方盘整。
And uh back to the chart. So basically uh it ran up in May as those reports were coming out and then we sort of had like uh I think a pretty orderly pullback um to the 200 day moving average which at that time was 199200 bounced off of that level twice.
Came right back into the 200s and then has been biting its time pretty much consolidating below that 235 breakout level.
今天该股收在 228 附近，它敲击 230 到 235 这个突破位的时间越长，这个测试过程持续得越久，我认为最终的突破就会越有力。
Today the the stock closed around 228 and um the more the longer it knocks on that 230 235 breakout level the longer that testing process takes place the more powerful I think the eventual breakout would be
就一眼看去，你对 Nvidia 的技术面有什么看法？所以当我看这张图时，我看到 50 日移动均线向上，200 日移动均线向上，我们一度跌到 50 日线下方，然后在 Muse 出来之后又立刻大幅反弹，你知道，立刻让人震惊。
我认为这是对该消息很好的价格反应，显然我们会谈到回购，我们会深入讨论那一点以及它对这只股票意味着什么。我对那方面有看法，但纯粹就图表而言，如果你把名字遮住，这在我看来是买入。
just at a glance what are your thoughts on the technicals for Nvidia >> so when I look at the chart I see an ascending 50-day moving average ascending 200 day moving average we dipped right below the 50-day and surged right back up after uh Muse came out and you know shocked the Yeah. immediately and I think it's a great price reaction to that news and obviously we'll talk about the buyback and we'll get into that and what that means for the stock.
I have thoughts there but just purely on the chart if you hid the name this is a buy to me.
是的。图表上最后一点，下面那个面板是相对强弱，RSI，我们不打算深入讲它的计算方式，但基本上我们看的是这只股票的相对动能。
Yeah. Last thing on the chart, that bottom pane is relative strength, RSI, and we're not going to get into like the calculation that goes into it, but effectively what we're looking at is momentum for the stock uh relative.
你知道，这不是科学，人们有这种简写，他们会说，好吧，60 多就是完美的。当一只股票创出新高时，你希望相对强弱至少处在 60 多，这告诉你动能正在确认这波走势。然后人们把 70 以上视为超买，像是一个技术术语。
它不是那种“哦我觉得它涨太多了”的超买。他们会看到 72、74、76 的动能读数，然后说，好吧，这不是一个好的入场点。这东西得先降降温。
And you know, people it's it's not science like people have this shortorthhand where they're like, okay, 60s is perfect. When you have a stock making a new high, you want relative strength to be at least in the 60s, which tells you like momentum is confirming the move.
And then people think about 70 plus as sort of overbought like like it's a technical term. It's not overbought like oh I feel like it went up too much. They will look at a momentum reading at 72 74 76 and say okay not a great entry point. This thing has to cool off.
我们现在是 58。如果这只股票真的会创出新高，我想不出还有什么比 RSI 从 50 多高位升到 60 多更好的动能读数来配合它了。它给了你那么大的空间，让最终的突破得以发生。
We're at 58. Like I don't I can't think of a bet if in fact this stock is going to make a new high. I can't think of a better momentum reading to go along with that than an RSI moving from the high 50s into the 60s.
It just gives you so much space for for that eventual breakout to take place.
是的，我明白你的意思。我也在看成交量。这不像是一次成交量极低的走势。我一直都在看 RSI 背离。所以当股票在创新高而 RSI 没有创新高时，那始终是我会去留意的东西。
Yeah, I'm following you. And I'm looking at the volume, too. It's not like it's a super low volume move. Um I'm always looking at RSI divergence. So when the stock is making a high and the RSI is not making a high, that is always something that I'm looking to see.
哦，等一下。为什么动能没有确认这波走势呢。但在这里，你知道，你看到这只股票有很强的相对强弱。再说一次，纯粹基于图表来看，它看起来已经准备好了。
Oh, hold on a second. Why isn't m uh, you know, momentum confirming the move. But here, you know, you see a lot of relative strength in the name. Um, again, purely based just on the chart, it looks like it's ready.
是的。我们没有那种背离。我们得到的是确认。而且是在新高处，如果我们能让 RSI 也一起跟上，如果它真的带着信心突破，那显然很可能会发生。这正是技术派在等待的。他们就是在找那些时刻。
Yeah. And we don't have that divergence. We have confirmation. and at a new high if we can get uh RSI coming along for the ride, which obviously would would probably happen if it really breaks out with conviction.
Like that's what technicians are waiting for. They're looking for those uh moments.
我还想展示一张 10 年期的图表，Matt。所以，这就是单纯的价格，我把其他都去掉了，没有成交量，没有移动均线，什么都没有。这就像，人们会说，“哦，Nvidia 很无聊”，或者你知道，这股票不喜欢被人拿棍子戳，动一动啊。
各位，这是拆股调整后的。2023 年初这是一只 10 美元的股票。现在是 228。放松点。给它一点时间。
I also want to show a 10-year chart, Matt. >> So, like this is just price and I pulled out there's no volume, there's no moving averages, there's no [ __ ] This is like so people are like, "Oh, Nvidia's boring or um you know the stock doesn't like poking the meme where you're poking it with a stick do something."
Guys, this like split adjusted. This was a $10 stock at the beginning of 2023. It's 228. Like relax. Give it give it a minute.
对。对。而疯狂的是，如果我把市盈率叠加在这上面，它简直会创出 2016 年的低点。我知道我们可以谈论前瞻盈利、谈论预期是错的，我们可以就此推测，但我回去查过，实际的前瞻盈利往往非常接近实际值，这不是我的观点。你知道，事实就是如此。
Right. Right. And the insane thing is that if I charted the 4P ratio on top of this, it would literally be making 2016 lows. And I know we could we could talk about uh forward earnings and the estimates being wrong and we can speculate on that, but I went back and looked the actual forward earnings tend to be very close to the actuals and it's not my opinion. You know, it just is what it is.
这是一家本财年自由现金流大约会做到 960 亿或 980 亿美元的公司。明年在 6800 亿美元营收的基础上，自由现金流可能达到 3600 亿美元。再说一次，这不仅仅基于公司自身的指引，而是基于资本开支计划以及我们从另外 50 个来源得到的英伟达在这部分资本开支中所占的份额。
This is a this is a company that um this fiscal year is going to do something like 96 or 98 billion in free cash flow. Next year it could be $360 billion in free cash flow on $680 billion in revenue. um ba again not just based on the company's own guidance but like based on the capex plans and Nvidia's share of of that capex spend that we're getting from 50 other sources
你想想一家以这种速度增长盈利的公司，如果它的盈利倍数在上升，那才会让人震惊；如果它持平，那还可以理解；而实际上，它的盈利倍数正在暴跌。
and you think about you think about a company that is uh growing earnings at this rate it would be shocking if the earnings multiple were going up if it were flat it would be understandable it's actually plunging the the the multiple on the earnings.
对。好了，各位。英伟达宣布了 1500 亿美元的股票回购。Jensen 是在 Daario 出来说要放慢节奏大约两周后放出这个消息的。所以，他基本上是转身说，我要反着来。
>> Yeah. All right, guys. So, Nvidia announced an $150 billion buyback. Okay. Jensen dropped this like two weeks after Daario came out and said to slow the pace. So, like, lol, he essentially turned around and said, I'll do the opposite.
所以，我们就……好吧。这里有一些假设，但我们就假设英伟达的股价在未来一年半里保持不动。做图表的时候我得把它简化。所以就假设它不动。如果你把 1500 亿美元，加上它回购计划中已有的 850 亿美元，到 2028 年第一季度你总共得到 2350 亿美元的回购。那么理论上这会把股份减少 4.3%。
And so, let's just All right. So, there's some assumptions baked in here, but let's just say Nvidia's price stays flat for the next year and a half. Okay, I got to make it simple when I'm doing the chart.
So, it stays flat. Okay, if you take $150 billion and you add the $85 billion that it already has in its buyback plan, you get $235 billion of buybacks through Q1 2028. So that would theoretically reduce the shares by 4.3%.
我想我们可以列一列，如果你把作为英伟达多头、作为市场多头、作为 AI 多头想看到的事情一条条列出来。我认为排在最前面的，会是世界上最重要的公司的、世界上最重要的 CEO 说：别放慢。
让我们回购 1500 亿美元的股票。我不会去投机收购一家公司。让我们用这些资本来减少我们的股份数量。
And I guess we could we could chart off like if you just went down the laundry list of things that you would want to see as an Nvidia bowl, as a market bull, as an AI bowl. I think at the top would be the most important CEO in the world at the most important company in the world saying screw slowing.
Let's buy back $150 billion of stock. I'm not going to go speculate buying a company. Let's use the capital to to reduce our share count.
对。所以我认为说他是当下最重要的 CEO 是准确的。没有人比他更重要。而且他并不是躲在掩体里。这个人简直无处不在。他上各种播客。我看到了白宫那场 AI 晚宴或者会议之类的座位表。
他就坐在特朗普旁边。想想当时在场的所有人，理论上都可能坐在特朗普旁边。结果坐在旁边的是 Jensen。
>> Right. So most important CEO I think is accurate at the present moment. There's nobody more important. And also but he's not important than hiding in a bunker. This guy is literally everywhere.
He's popping on podcasts. Like he's he I I saw the seating chart for the AI dinner or meeting or whatever it was at the White House. He was next to Trump. Like think about all the people that were there that theoretically could have been next to Trump. It's Jensen one,
对吧？而且他知道怎么经营这段关系。就像 Tim Cook 当年那样，他知道自己在做什么。我认为总体而言，你希望政府站在你这边。这就像一个大大的双拇指点赞。你需要这个。
>> right? And he knows how to manage the relationship. It's like how Tim Cook was, you know, he knows what he's doing. And I think that it's overall you want the administration on your side.
It's like a It's like a double thumbs up. You need that.
对。他除了是个天才、在创新上领先所有人、并且看到机器学习趋势变成增强现实、变成虚拟现实、又变成——哦等等，其实我们应该把这些用于大语言模型和 AI——在他创立公司以来的这段时间里做完了这一切之外，我认为人们不应该去质疑他的直觉、他的公开表态、去审视他的资本配置。
>> Yeah. He's uh he's a on top of being a genius and out innovating everyone and seeing the uh machine learning trend turn into augmented reality turn into virtual reality turn into oh wait actually we should be using these for um um LLMs and AI like having done all of that in his time since founding the company uh nobody I don't think people should be secondguessing his instincts his public statements ments scrutinizing his capital allocation.
其中一个大的说法是，哦，英伟达在给它的客户钱，然后客户转身用这些钱买更多的芯片。那你想让他怎么做？你听到我刚才抛出的那个数字了吗？未来一年可能高达 3600 亿美元的现金流。你想让他给员工办披萨派对吗？
还是你想让他在现在到 2030 年之间回购 5000 亿美元的股票？我是说，如果利润率保持得住、营收继续增长，他可能会这么做，这是有可能的，但他本来就该对整个生态做这些投资。
Um, one of the big things is like, oh, Nvidia is like giving money to their customers and then the customers are turning around and buying more chips with that. It's what do you want him to do?
Did you hear the number I just trotted out? $360 billion in cash flow potentially over the over the next year. You You want him to throw pizza parties for his employees? like what what you want him to buy back $500 billion worth of stock between now and 2030.
I mean, he might it's it's it's possible if margins hold up and and revenue continues to grow, but like he's supposed to be making these investments into the ecosystem.
而且，聊天室里 Georg D 说，他现在在拍那个橙人的马屁。问题不在这里。关键在于什么对股东最有利，对吧？他需要立法站在他这边，才能做他想做的事。这一点是否已经反映在股价里了？
当然。这一点会变吗？绝对会。但眼下，他把这段关系经营得很好。这也是你想押注 Jensen 的另一个原因。我是说，他完全就是个狠角色。
>> Well, and Georg D in the chat is saying now he sucks up to the orange man. It's not about that. It's what's best for the shareholders, right? He needs legislation on his side to do what he wants to do.
And is that something that's baked into the price? Sure. Can that change? Absolutely. But right now, he's managing the relationship well. It's another reason why you want to bet on Jensen. I mean, he's a complete he's a badass.
对。与其说是拍那个橙人的马屁，不如说是他明白特朗普是个重商主义者。所以，这对观众来说其实非常重要。这不是法西斯主义。特朗普政府看待政府与商业交汇的方式，其实也不是真正的资本主义。
它是重商主义。你们中还记得高中社会课的人会知道，重商主义是一种经济制度，只要公司的目标与政府想要的一致，公司就被给予高度的自由。显然，最著名的例子是荷兰东印度公司、南海公司，我知道其中有些结局并不好，但就是这种理念：是的，我们会允许企业，或者他们过去所称的合股公司，去追求主导全球贸易、为股东创造利润的目标。
但这些事情必须与政府想要的东西携手并进。就特朗普政府而言，他们想要巨大的 GDP 增长。他们想要把目前在美国境外制造或设厂的产业回流。他们希望招聘的第一倾向是雇用本土的人，而不是别处的人。
这就是特朗普政府、Bessant 以及他们所有政策的目标。所以 Jensen 找到了办法，就像之前的 Tim Cook 一样，去讨好政府，说：好，我明白。你们想在这里建晶圆厂。
你们想在这里制造半导体。你们想让美国的 AI 主导世界，而不是中国的 AI。当然，谁不想呢？好，我们可以做生意。我们可以这样合作。这就是重商主义。这就是这届政府的本质。我不是在告诉你这是好是坏。
我只是在向你解释这种思维方式。如果你是英伟达的股东，你想要什么？去当那些掌控着国会两院、最高法院和军队的人的敌人吗？你是在自欺欺人吗？这就是当今时代赚钱的方式。这就是你赚钱的方式。它会变。但我们现在就在这里。
>> Yeah. It's a sucks up to the orange man or understands that Trump is a mercantalist. So, this is very important actually for the audience. It's not fascism. It's not really capitalism the way the Trump administration thinks about the intersection of government and business.
It's mercantalism. And for any of you who remember social studies uh in high school, mercantalism is a economic system where companies are given a high degree of free reign so long as their aims are in concert with what the government wants.
And obviously the most prominent examples of that are things like the the the Dutch East India Company, um the South Sea Company, and I know some of these didn't end well, but like just this idea of like yes, we're going to allow corporations or what they used to call joint stock companies to pursue their goals of dominating trade around the world and and producing profits for their shareholders.
But um those things have to work handinhand with what the government wants. In the case of the Trump administration, they want massive GDP growth. They want to onshore industries that are currently um manufacturing or hosting their facilities outside of the United States.
They want the first uh hiring inclination to be toward hiring people right here at home rather than somewhere else. Like that's that's the aim of the Trump administration and Bessant and like all of their policies.
And so Jensen has found a way like Tim Cook before him to ingratiate himself with the administration and say, "Okay, I get it. You want to build fabs here. You want to make semiconductors here.
You want um US AI to dominate the world and not Chinese AI. Of course, who wouldn't want that?" Like, "Okay, we can we can do business. We can work that way." That's mercantalism.
That's the the nature of the administration. I'm not telling you it's good, it's bad. I'm just explaining to you the mindset. If you're a shareholder of Nvidia, what do you want?
to [ __ ] be an enemy of of the people who control both houses of Congress, the Supreme Court, the military. Like, are you are are you kidding yourself? Like, this is about making money in today's day and age.
This is how you make money. It'll change. This is where we are.
他在与政府保持一致。他们想要这样。对吧？他们需要这样。他们需要在全国各地安置就业，而他在帮忙做这件事。
>> He's aligning with the administration. They want it. Okay? They need it. They need to place jobs in in areas around the country, and he's helping with that.
英伟达过去 12 个月的营业利润，好吧？先别管那些私人投资，好吧？营业利润现在已高于苹果。这是真实的实际盈利。这些不是预估。这是过去 12 个月里发生的。
Nvidia's trailing 12-month operating earnings, okay? Forget the private investments, okay? The operating earnings are now above Apple's. It's legitimate actual earnings. These are not estimates. This happened over the past 12 months.
但他们要怎么向客户解释，那个宏观对冲基金刚刚在资产负债表上悄悄放进了 100 亿美元的 10 年期美国国债，而英伟达刚刚宣布了 1500 亿美元的回购？
But how are they going to explain away the macro hedge fund to their clients that they just, you know, slid 10 billion of the 10-year Treasury on their balance sheet when Nvidia just announced a $150 billion buyback?
Meta、Apple、Alphabet、英伟达，不。
Meta, Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, no
在英伟达 1500 亿美元回购之后，我为什么还要持有 Craft Hind 这家公司，而不是持有英伟达？
Why would I want to own uh Craft Hind company when I could own Nvidia after $150 billion buyback?
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
The Compound 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。