ON 是强劲的长期买入标的，得益于乐观的 2029 年指引（20% 复合年增长率、更高利润率）以及 10 亿美元的大规模回购减少股份。
逐段跳播
持仓股在2026年开局表现不佳，昨日收盘时下跌40%，但今天股价上涨10%，原因是管理层给出了非常乐观的前景展望，不仅针对今年余下的时间，也针对本十年末。
Holding shares had a rough start to 2026, down 40% at the close of trading yesterday , but today the share price is up 10% after management gave a very optimistic outlook not only for the rest of this year, but also for the end of the decade.
他们给出了中期指引，这类指引每3年发布一次，因此将一直有效到2029年底。他们预计复合年增长率约为20%。在过去3年期间，他们的实际表现超过了自身指引，所以这一次可能会略高于那个水平，而且他们预计利润率将继续上升。
60%的利润率已经不够了。现在他们设定的目标利润率为65%。
They have given medium-term guidance, which they give every 3 years, so it will be in effect until the end of 2029. They are expecting a compound annual growth rate of about 20 %.
They have outperformed their guidance over the past 3-year period , so this time it could be a little higher than that and they are expecting the profit margin to continue to increase.
A 60% profit rate is no longer enough. Now they have set a target profit rate of 65%.
而今天最吸引投资者关注的大事是10亿美元的股票回购。这可能相当于公司约10%的股份。这是一次相当大的回购。这会消耗资产负债表上大量现金，但考虑到当前股价，这很可能是正确的决定。而投资者，至少在短期内，显然对此感到兴奋。
And the big thing that's catching investors' attention today is the $1 billion buyback. This could be around 10% of the company. This is a pretty big buyback. This will cost a lot of cash on the balance sheet, but considering the current market price of the shares, it is probably the right decision.
And investors , at least in the short term, are clearly excited about it.
那么，我们来详细讨论一下On的股票正在发生什么。这是我持有的一只股票，长期以来我一直对它相当感兴趣，主要是因为它是一家非凡的复利增长型企业，尽管它今年表现相当糟糕。
So, let's discuss in detail what is happening in the shares of On. This is a stock that I own and have been quite interested in for a long time, mainly because it is a phenomenal compounder , although it has had a pretty bad year.
该股在昨日交易结束时下跌了42%，但今天表现相当不错。我认为这实际上还在一定程度上低估了问题。该股上周上涨了近10%。在我录制时，距离交易结束还有几个小时，它当天上涨了约9%。今天早些时候它曾上涨略高于10%。
The stock was down 42% by the end of trading yesterday, but today is a pretty good day. I think this actually understates the issue a bit. Shares rose nearly 10% last week. As I was recording, with a few hours left before the transaction closed, it was up about 9% on the day. It was up a little over 10% earlier today.
那么，究竟发生了什么？事情是这样的，On举办了一场投资者日活动。我先从那些大数字讲起，因为这些是投资者在长期内应当关注的，而在On的案例中这也是一个大问题。那么，这项业务究竟有多强？
So, what is really happening? The thing is, On organized an Investor Day presentation. I'll start with the big numbers here because these are what investors should focus on in the long term, and this was a big question in the case of On. So, how strong is the business really?
他们实际上在上个季度下调了全年指引。降幅并不很大。他们仍然预计实现两位数增长，但这个问题有点令人担忧。市场较高端的一切是否都在放缓？这与我们在许多品牌和鞋类公司身上看到的情况一致，但这也点燃了投资者的一些希望。
They actually lowered their guidance for the full year last quarter. It wasn't a very big decrease. They are still expecting double-digit growth , but the issue was a bit worrisome.
Is everything slowing down at the higher levels of the market ? This is consistent with what we have seen with many brands and shoe companies, but it has also sparked some hope among investors.
这里的关键在于，复合年增长率（CAGR）预计将在2029年之前保持高位，也就是从2026年到2029年。这是按固定汇率计算的。这对ON来说非常重要，因为他们以瑞士法郎公布账目。
我真的认为，作为一家如此大型的美国公司，他们应该以美元公布账目。他们很大一部分业务也在美国，但让我们看看他们是否会做出这一改变。
The big thing here is that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is expected to remain high through 2029, meaning from 2026 to 2029. This is calculated on a constant currency basis.
This is really important for ON because they publish accounts in Swiss francs. I really think that as such a large American company, they should publish their accounts in US dollars.
A large part of their business is also in the United States , but let's see if they make that change.
他们预计毛利率至少达到65%。上一次他们做出这一预测时，目标是最少60%。他们还预计，到2029年，经调整EBITDA利润率在计入销售、一般及管理费用杠杆后将达到22%。上个季度经调整EBITDA利润率约为20%。
所以，这不是巨大的提升，但就经调整EBITDA利润率而言是良好的提升，而这是衡量企业现金流的一个指标。因此，3年经调整EBITDA复合年增长率预计将超过20%。
They expect the gross profit margin to be at least 65%. The last time they made this prediction, it was at least 60%. And they expect SG&A leverage adjusted EBITDA margin to be 22% by 2029.
That adjusted EBITDA margin was around 20% in the last quarter. So, it's not a huge increase, but a good increase in terms of adjusted EBITDA margin, which is a measure of cash flow from the business.
Therefore, the 3-year adjusted EBITDA CAGR is expected to be more than 20%.
他们还宣布了一项10亿美元的回购计划。以下是这件事为何重要。今天，ON的市值约为99亿美元。因此，从当前市值中减去10亿美元，将回购约10%的流通股。这些股份将通过公司购买。所以，这可能对公司的市盈率倍数造成重大打击。
They also announced a $1 billion buyback program. Here's why this is important. Today, ON's market capitalization is about $9.9 billion. So, subtracting $1 billion from the current one, would take about 10% of the outstanding shares.
Which will be purchased through the company. So, this could be a big blow to the company's price-to-earnings multiple.
而如果在此基础上再加上复合增长——我们谈到的营收复合增长、经营杠杆的复合增长——那么这可能成为公司未来的燃料，因为我认为对ON持乐观态度的理由不仅仅是这种营收增长的延续。这是过去3年以美元计算的27%的营收复合年增长率。
所以，未来3年它可能会降至20%左右。这仍然是相当强劲的增长率。然而，如果目前20或16倍的市盈率倍数在未来几年扩大，同时股份数量减少，那么倍数扩张对股价的影响将会更大。
And if you add to that the compound growth —the compound growth of revenue, the compound growth of operating leverage that we talked about— then that could serve as fuel for the company in the future , because I think the reason to be optimistic about ON is not just the continuation of this revenue growth.
This is a 27% compound annual revenue growth in US dollars over the last 3 years. So, it will probably come down to around 20% in the next 3 years. That's still a really strong growth rate.
However, if this price -to-earnings multiple of 20 or 16 expands in the next few years and the number of shares decreases, the impact of the multiple expansion on the share price will increase even more.
我想讨论一下这份演示中吸引我注意的其他内容。关于Playbook，这里没有太多可讨论的。打造创新产品，并得到运动员和人才的验证。所以，这是他们一直在做的事情，通过与世界上一些最优秀的运动员合作，尤其是在某些运动项目中的女性运动员。
这一点正在发生变化。我稍后会再谈这个。提供高端体验。所以，这将是一个直面消费者的渠道。他们现在有100家门店。赚取高质量的收入。嗯，我们想要非常好的利润率，同时我们想要文化上的创新和卓越。
这是一种企业语言，意思是我们真的想成为一家优秀的公司。
I would like to discuss other things that caught my attention in this presentation for investors. Playbook, there's not much to discuss here. Create innovative products, validated by athletes and talents.
So, you know, this is something that they've done, by partnering with some of the best athletes in the world, especially female athletes in some of their sports. This is something that is changing.
I'll come back to that later. Provide a premium experience. So, this is going to be a direct-to-consumer channel. They now have 100 stores. Earn high-quality income. Well, we want very good margins, and at the same time, we want innovation in culture and excellence.
This is, you know, a kind of corporate language that means we really want to be a good company.
但在上周宣布他们现在赞助足球明星姆巴佩并与他建立重大合作关系之后，他们还表示将进军高尔夫业务。这两个市场对他们来说之所以非常重要，是因为On可以通过两种方式增长。这可能会在他们目前已有销售的领域提高市场份额。
公司的历程始于跑步产品。我认为他们的很多鞋主要卖给休闲用户，比如郊区的忙碌妈妈们。例如，我有好几双On的鞋，所以我算是他们的完美目标市场。但这些业务不会让你走得太远。如果你想变得像Nike或Adidas那样大，你就必须扩展到其他市场。
But after last week's announcement that they are now sponsoring football star Mbappe and have a major partnership with him , they have also said they are going to enter the golf business.
So, the reason these are two very important markets for them is that On can grow in two ways. This could increase market share in areas where they currently have sales. The company's journey began with running products.
I think a lot of their shoes are mainly sold to casual users, like busy mothers in the suburbs. For example, I have several pairs of On shoes, so I'm kind of the perfect target market for them.
But these businesses wo n't take you very far. If you want to be as big as Nike or Adidas, you have to expand into other markets as well.
那么，你会朝哪个方向增长？他们选择足球作为第一步。这是与姆巴佩的合作，所以我认为这将非常值得关注。他们能否仅凭足球鞋就抢占一些市场份额？这是他们将要推向市场的东西。我们看到了姆巴佩穿着它们。
这很可能还会带来诸如轻质喷雾产品之类的益处。然而，它能否吸引休闲市场和服装市场更大的份额？这是他们肯定能够增长的两个领域。
So, which direction will you grow? They chose football as their first step. It's a partnership with Mbappe, so I think it will be very interesting to watch. Will they be able to capture some market share with just cleats ?
This is something they are going to bring to the market. We saw Mbappe wearing them. Something that would probably also provide benefits like a light spray product. However, will it attract a larger share of the casual market and the apparel market ?
These are two areas where they can definitely grow.
另一个是高尔夫。高尔夫真的很有意思，因为我认为高尔夫需要另一个像On这样的参与者，带来鞋子和服装。我认为我们不会很快在市场上看到On的高尔夫球杆。但这是另一个高端市场，其目标市场与他们休闲产品的目标市场相似。
因此，进入这两个市场是合理的。足球可能会稍微扩大市场，因为它可能更具国际性，但价值不如高尔夫高。高尔夫正在更深入地进入那个高端市场。你显然是在增加另一项运动，同时也在更深入地渗透高端市场，尤其是在美国和欧洲。
所以，我喜欢他们在这两个领域都在推进。我认为这对他们来说是正确的战略举措。
The other is golf. Golf is really interesting because I think golf needs another player like On , who will bring the shoes and the clothes. I don't think we'll see On's golf clubs on the market anytime soon.
But this is another high- end market with a target market similar to their casual product target market. Therefore, it makes sense to enter these two markets. Soccer might expand the market a bit because it will likely be more international , but not as highly valued as golf.
Golf is moving deeper into that high- end market. You're clearly adding another game, but also penetrating deeper into the premium market, especially in the US and Europe. So, I like that they are moving forward in both of these areas.
I think this is the right strategic move for them.
现在，回购或股份回购对他们来说是非常有吸引力的选择，因为这是一个大胆的举措，而且他们在过去几年里一直保持着强劲的资产负债表。自然，他们现在更倾向于股份回购，而从资产负债表来看，这似乎非常合乎逻辑。
16亿美元，这是他们资产负债表上的美元现金。所以，他们有足够的钱非常迅速地完成这次回购。
Now, buybacks or share repurchases are a very attractive proposition for them, because it is a bold move and they have maintained a strong balance sheet over the past few years.
Naturally, they are now leaning more towards share repurchases, and looking at the balance sheet, this seems very logical. $1.6 billion, that's the cash US dollars on their balance sheet.
So, they have enough money to do this buyback very quickly.
我在这里加上了他们的租赁计算。由于他们增加了更多门店，正如我所说，100家门店，他们不得不承担更多的租赁，而这些将计入资产负债表。所以，这是一项未来义务。这不是贷款，但会被视为一项经营费用。所以，你看到的是约7亿美元的未来租赁义务。
I have added their lease calculation here. Since they have added more stores , as I said, 100 stores, they have had to take out a lot more leases and these will be on the balance sheet.
So, this is a future obligation. This is not a loan, but it will be considered an operating expense. So, you're looking at about $700 million in future lease obligations.
但先把它放到一边，来看看自由现金流，因为这是另一个重要部分。我们现在已经到了这样一个阶段：On 持续产生正的自由现金流。它不是一条直线上涨的曲线，但它是一个持续为正的数字，而且请记住，自由现金流还包括库存变动。
因此，库存变动在这里用红色标出。随着公司成长，库存增加是很自然的。所以，库存对其资产负债表是负面的，对其自由现金流表也是负面的。这也是 On 作为一家公司持续成长、同时保持正净利润和正自由现金流的原因之一，这非常令人印象深刻。
在消费品市场做到这一点非常困难，因为你必须在销售和营销上花钱，还要在库存和基础设施上花钱来扩张业务。
But let's hide it and look at free cash flow, because that's another important part. We have now reached a point where 'ON' is consistently generating positive free cash flow. It's not a straight line going up, but it's a continuous number and remember, free cash flow also includes changes in inventory.
Therefore, inventory changes are shown here in red. It is natural that as a company grows, their inventory also increases. So, inventory is a negative for their balance sheet. This is negative for their free cash flow statement.
This is one of the reasons why 'ON' has continued to grow as a company while maintaining positive net income and positive free cash flow , which is very impressive. This is very difficult to do in the consumer goods market , as you have to spend on sales and marketing and spend money on inventory and infrastructure to expand the business.
所以，把这一切都考虑进去，并考虑到目前市盈率为 20 倍、按前瞻口径接近 16 倍，管理层预计到本十年末将按固定汇率实现 20% 的复合年增长率。在我看来，对于长期投资者来说，这是一家伟大的公司，也是一只伟大的股票。
这就是为什么过去几年我一直在持续买入 On 的股票。
So, taking all this into account and considering the price-to- earnings multiple currently at 20 and close to 16 on a forward basis, management expects to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20 percent on a constant currency basis by the end of the decade.
In my opinion, this is a great company and a great stock for long-term investors. This is why I have been consistently buying shares of On for the past few years.
然而，今年的情况就没那么好了。正如我所说，今早开盘时股价下跌了超过 40%。但当这些公司的股票能以合理的价格买到，并且具备营收增长、利润率扩张和估值倍数扩张的潜力时，那才是真正该买入它们的时候。
如果这只股票的市盈率达到 30 倍，流通股数量减少，而营收和盈利继续增长，它可能在未来十年带来 10 倍的回报。
This year, however, the situation was not so good. As I said, the share price was down more than 40 percent at the start of trading this morning. But when shares of these companies are available at reasonable prices , have the potential for revenue growth, margin expansion, and multiple expansion , that's when it's actually the right time to buy them.
If this stock's price- to-earnings multiple reaches 30, the number of shares outstanding decreases, and revenue and earnings continue to grow , it could deliver 10x returns over the next decade.
不要低估 On 的受欢迎程度、产品定价能力以及进入新市场的能力。在服装和配饰方面，它们能创造的机会不容忽视。这里，鞋类营收用蓝色表示，服装用橙色表示，联营营收用紫色表示。如你所见，鞋类销售占其总营收的 90% 以上。
如果它们更专注于服装和配饰品类，它们可能连续几年实现 30%、40% 或 50% 的年增长，而这仍然不会成为业务中很大的一部分。
Don't underestimate On's popularity, ability to set product prices, and ability to enter new markets. There is no way to ignore the opportunities they can create when it comes to clothing and accessories.
Here, shoe revenue is shown in blue, clothing in orange, and affiliate revenue in purple. As you can see , shoe sales account for more than 90 percent of their total revenue. If they focus more on the apparel and accessories category, they could grow at 30, 40, or 50 percent annually for a few years and still not be a very large part of the business.
所以，On 这只股票有很多值得看好的地方。我认为这是今天股价上涨的一个重要原因，因为投资者在想：“谁知道呢，也许这是对的。”“管理层实际上看到了相当光明的未来。”几周前可能看起来并非如此，尤其是在 2026 年，当时许多消费品公司承受着巨大压力。
然而，看起来 On 正在提升其市场份额。它们比许多竞争对手行动得更快，并且现在正在回购自己的股票。这些对长期投资者来说都是好迹象。
So , there's a lot to like about On Stock. I think that's a big reason why stock prices are rising today , because investors are thinking, "Who knows, maybe it's right." "The management actually sees a pretty bright future.
" It may not have looked like this a few weeks ago, especially in 2026 when many consumer goods companies were under a lot of pressure. However, it seems that On is increasing its market share.
They are moving faster than many of their competitors and are now buying back their own shares. These are good signs for long-term investors.
这个频道对 $ON 的历次判断
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。