Oracle 援引不可抗力是一项战略优势，既能推迟资本支出，也印证了其合同的稳固性。
逐段跳播
今天我们聊的是 Oracle，这是我们的专长领域，Cory。我们再来说说 Oracle，它登上了头条，并援引不可抗力条款来保护自己免受其数据中心的影响。你第一次看到这件事时是怎么想的？
Today we're talking about Oracle, that's our area of expertise, Cory. Let's talk again about Oracle, which made headlines and cited force majeure to protect itself from its data center.
What did you think of this when you first saw it?
因为有很多方面值得讨论，我想就与 Oracle 相关的一切向你提问。我所说的一切你都可以谨慎看待。Oracle 有人说过：“你为什么总是在谈论我们之前先说这些？”但我想让你知道，我是有偏见的。
好，我会给你我的坦诚看法，但你需要理解我的偏见。我之前很担心。现在我看到这件事，我在想：“不可抗力？”我希望得克萨斯州没有飓风。事实上，没有人知道。这通常就是这一条款的目的，即应对公司无法控制的事件，也就是触发不可抗力的重大事件。
我想弄明白这一条款意味着什么，但我想把它放在 Oracle 的背景下思考。
Because there are many aspects worth discussing, I would like to ask you about everything related to Oracle. You can take everything I say with caution. Someone at Oracle said, "Why do you always say this before you talk about us?"
But I want you to know that I am biased. Okay, I'll give you my honest opinion, but you need to understand my bias. I was worried. Now I see this and I wonder: "Force majeure?"
I hope there isn't a hurricane in Texas. In fact, no one knows. This is generally the purpose of this clause, which is to deal with events beyond the company's control, i.e., major events that trigger force majeure.
I want to understand what this clause means, but I want to think about it in the context of Oracle.
在建设数据中心的背景下，Oracle 聘请了金融专家来承担债务，并在把钥匙交给 Oracle 之前充当正式所有者，因为开发该设施的是 Oracle。在设施投入运营之前，Oracle 看不到任何收入，而他们已经说服了华尔街，也说服了我本人，让他们相信这是件好事。
在他们许多交易中，包括新墨西哥州的 Jupiter 项目——那是一个巨大的项目——他们只需在费用和收入同时实现时才予以列示。
In the context of building data centers, Oracle hired financial experts to take on the debts and to be the official owners before handing over the keys to Oracle, since it is Oracle that develops the facility.
Oracle does not see any revenue until the facility is operational, and they have convinced Wall Street, and convinced me personally, that this is a good thing. They only have to show expenses and revenues when they are realized at the same time in many of their deals, including the Jupiter project in New Mexico, which is a huge project.
所以，你担心的是这一点。Oracle 会完成这个项目吗？它会按时完成吗？今天是我们第一次看到 Oracle 发出信号，表明它可能无法在他们希望的时间内完成。
So, you are worried about that. Will Oracle complete this project? Will it be completed on time? Today is the first indication from Oracle that we see that it may not be completed in the time they want.
如果合同被执行，这现在意味着问题出在他们身上，而不是 Oracle 身上。Oracle 有很多金融专家，也许是软件领域最好的，也可能是整个科技领域最好的。是的。Oracle 的合同在硅谷是传奇般的存在。
它极其强硬，而且起草得非常精心。所以，作为投资者，你今天就要下注。你今天早上就有机会下注。你会赌 Oracle 的合同对他们比 Blue All 的合同更有利吗？好。因为 Blue All 是金融专家，但 Oracle 有自己的金融专家。
硅谷的历史表明，如果你押注 Oracle 的金融专家，你会赢。也许这里也是如此。这是我肯定会接受的一个赌注。但从硅谷的历史来看，如果你押注 Oracle 合同的强硬程度，这通常是一个会赢的赌注。
This now means that the problem lies with them, not with Oracle, if the contract is executed. Oracle has a lot of financial experts, perhaps the best in the software field, and possibly the best in the entire technology field.
Yes. Oracle contracts are legendary in Silicon Valley. It is extremely strong and very carefully crafted. So, as an investor, you will be betting today. You have a chance to bet this morning.
Would you bet that Oracle's contract is better for them than Blue All's contract? Good. Because Blue All are the financial specialists, but Oracle has its own financial specialists.
The history of Silicon Valley shows that if you bet on Oracle's financial experts, you will win. Perhaps this is the case here. This is a bet I definitely accepted. But historically in Silicon Valley, if you bet on the strength of Oracle's contract, it's usually a winning bet.
是的，我认为整个行业都会研究这件事，尤其是 Oracle 的合同，看看他们的合同是否像 Oracle 的合同一样强硬。
Yes, I think the entire industry will be looking into this, specifically Oracle contracts, to see if their contracts are as strong as Oracle's.
嗯，这件事上不只是 Oracle，对吧？会有问题。会有一些事情……Oracle 的一位高管 Clay McGuirek 在最近的电话会议上说：“如果你不遇到障碍，你就不会在过程中遇到问题。”
“但如果你在开发数据中心时没有遇到问题，那说明你投入的努力还不够。”好。如果你投入的努力不够，以至于会遇到问题，那说明你没有尽最大努力。你不会获得最好的收入，也不会参与到你能做的最大业务中去。
因此，美国历史上建造过的最大项目在建设中出现延误，是自然的。
Well, it's not just Oracle in this case, is it? There will be problems. There will be things... “If you don’t encounter obstacles, you won’t have problems along the way,” said Clay McGuirek, one of Oracle’s executives, on the recent conference call.
“But if you don’t encounter problems while developing a data center, you’re not putting in enough effort.” Good. If you are not putting in enough effort to the point where you will encounter problems, then you are not putting in your best effort.
You won't get the best revenue, and you won't get involved in the biggest businesses you can do. Therefore, it is natural that there would be delays in the construction of the largest projects ever built in American history.
我认为这实际上对 Oracle 是一个很大的优势，因为这将使他们能够推迟一些问题，尤其是如果新墨西哥州的能源问题恶化，这样这些问题就不会是灾难性的。如果我们看的是 2029 年而不是 2028 年，这意味着 Oracle 将能够把资本支出分摊到更长的时间段内。
I think this is actually a big advantage for Oracle, as it will allow them to postpone some problems, especially if the energy problems in New Mexico worsen, so that they are not catastrophic.
If we look at 2029 and not 2028, this means that Oracle will be able to spread its capital spending over a longer period.
这对 Anthropic 或 OpenAI 来说也是好消息，因为 OpenAI 是唯一会为数据中心向 Oracle 付钱的公司。没错。如果 OpenAI 之后被迫为数据中心向 Oracle 付钱，这可能会改善其现金状况。
It's also good news for Anthropic, or OpenAI, because OpenAI is the only company that will pay Oracle for the data center. correct. If OpenAI is later forced to pay Oracle for the data center, it could improve its cash position.
Oracle 今天所做的，以及我们所发现的、彭博社所报道的关于 Oracle 的情况，就是它说：“如果我们面临不可抗力，我们现在就通知你，我们不会承担这个负担。你将承担它。”对我来说，这再次表明 Oracle 相对于金融专家的优越性。
What Oracle did today, and what we discovered and what Bloomberg reported about Oracle, is that it said: "If we face a force majeure, we are informing you now that we will not bear the burden.
You will bear it." For me, this shows Oracle's superiority over finance experts once again.
这个频道对 $ORCL 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 12 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。