百事（PEP）在140美元被低估，对比177美元的公允价值；尽管面临宏观不利因素和注重健康的消费者带来的近期销售/利润压力，预计12-18个月内有27%的上涨空间。
逐段跳播
百事可乐是另一只被低估的股票，它与人工智能无关。我计算出的百事可乐公平价值为 177 美元，鉴于当前市场价格为 140 美元，我计算出百事可乐在未来 12 到 18 个月内有 27% 的上涨空间。
PepsiCo is another undervalued stock that is not linked to artificial intelligence. The fair value I calculated for PepsiCo is $177, and given the current market price of $140, I calculated a 27% upside for Pepsi over the next 12 to 18 months.
对于一家销售和利润稳定的相对安全的公司来说，这是一个罕见的低估值。当然，最乐观的因素之一，也是让我对百事可乐最乐观的事情，是它自身的经验。这是一项难以管理的业务。你必须与分销商合作，必须与供应商合作，必须处理制造，必须非常擅长营销，并且必须在全球范围内大规模地将所有这些整合在一起。
这是一件困难的事情。百事可乐几十年来一直成功管理这一点，并几十年来通过持续改进展示了这方面的技能。这种独有的知识和经验是我对百事可乐股票乐观的主要原因之一，也是为什么很少能以低价找到这只股票的原因之一。
This is a rare low valuation for a relatively safe company with stable sales and profits. Of course, one of the most optimistic factors, and the thing that makes me most optimistic about PepsiCo, is its own experience. This is a business that is difficult to manage. You have to work with distributors, you have to work with suppliers, you have to deal with manufacturing, you have to be very good at marketing, and you have to bring all of that together on a large scale around the world. This is a difficult thing to do. PepsiCo has been successful in managing this for decades and has demonstrated skill in this regard for decades with continuous improvements. That exclusive knowledge and experience is one of the main reasons for my optimism about PepsiCo stock and one of the reasons why it is rare to find this stock at a low price.
但目前能以低价买入百事可乐的原因在于影响业务的强劲下行因素，最显著的是宏观经济逆风，这些因素众多。从贸易壁垒增加，到伊朗战争导致石油和大宗商品价格上涨，减少了可自由支配的消费预算，所有这些都在降低百事公司近期的销售和利润预期。
But the reasons why you can get Pepsi at a low price right now are due to strong downward factors affecting the business, most notably the macroeconomic headwinds, which are numerous. From increased trade barriers to the war in Iran causing higher oil and commodity prices, reducing discretionary consumption budgets, all of this is lowering PepsiCo's near-term sales and profit forecasts.
第二个下行因素是消费者选择更健康的选项，这在短期内对百事公司不利，因为它销售的产品范围，从含糖饮料到咸味零食，并非完全健康的选择。
The second downside factor is consumers choosing healthier options, and this works against PepsiCo in the near term because the range of products it sells, between its sugary drinks and salty snacks, are not entirely healthy choices.
现在，公司可以转向更健康的选择。百事公司的核心专长不仅限于销售咸味零食或含糖饮料；物流能力、制造能力、分销网络、与分销商的关系以及营销有效性可以应用于更健康的选择。但这需要时间，而且这一转型可能会混乱，导致公司销售和利润的波动，这无疑是目前的一个下行因素。
Now, the company can shift to healthier options. PepsiCo's core expertise is not limited to selling salty snacks or sugary drinks; Logistics capabilities, manufacturing capabilities, distribution network, relationships with distributors, and marketing effectiveness can be applied to healthier choices. But it will take time, and this transition could be messy and lead to fluctuations in the company's sales and profits, which is certainly a downside factor at the moment.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $PEP 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。