PEP 缺乏吸引力，因其股息增长不可持续——自由现金流派息率高达 99.5%，且未来现金流指引疲软。
逐段跳播
现在，我们来说说百事股票，一只我开始怀疑大家是不是已经听腻了我谈论的股票。为什么？因为我收到大量要求我覆盖百事股票的要求。我不断在网上看到，说它是一个绝佳的机会，因为初始股息率是过去5年甚至10年里最高的之一。
除此之外，估值倍数也是10年来最低的。然而，我实际上在过去3到4年里一直在说百事的坏话。事实上，一年多前我在Seeking Alpha上写过一篇文章，标题是《买入还是警惕》。警示信号就在那里。而百事在过去一年、过去5年里表现并不好。
Now, we come to Pepsi stock, a stock that I'm starting to wonder if people are tired of me talking about. Why? Well, I get tons of requests to cover Pepsi stock. I keep seeing online how it's an incredible opportunity because the starting yield is one of the highest it's been really in the last 5 to even 10 years.
On top of this, the valuation multiple is the lowest it's been in 10 years. However, I've been talking bad about Pepsi for really the last 3 to four years. In fact, I wrote an article on Seeking Alpha over a year ago titled Buy or Beware.
The warning signs are there. And Pepsi has not done well over the last year or over the last 5 years.
而我之所以能够看淡初始股息率显著高于平均水平这一事实，之所以能够看淡表面层面看起来比历史上更具吸引力的市盈率倍数，仅仅是因为我明白他们正面临一些严重的资本配置问题。我之前就指出过这一点，但值得再次指出。
看看百事的股息指标。同样，你在表面层面会看到，不错的初始股息率，4.26%。过去5年和10年股息增长在6%到7%的区间，为26%，并且有着持续增长股息的历史。我的意思是，这是一只股息之王股票，连续50年增加股息。
And the reason I've been able to look past the fact that the starting yield was significantly higher than on average. The PE multiple on the surface level looked much more attractive than it has been historically was simply because I understood they were facing some serious capital allocation issues.
And I pointed this out before, but it's worth pointing out again. Look at Pepsi's dividend metrics. Again, what you'll see on the surface level, nice starting yield, 4.26%. 26% dividend growth in the range of 6 to 7% over the last 5 and 10 years with a history of growing dividends.
I mean, it's a dividend king stock. 50 consecutive years of dividend increases.
我之前就指出过这一点，但值得再次指出。看看百事的股息指标。同样，你在表面层面会看到，不错的初始股息率，4.26%。过去5年和10年股息增长在6%到7%的区间，为26%，并且有着持续增长股息的历史。
我的意思是，这是一只股息之王股票，连续50年增加股息。但当我们去看自由现金流派息率随时间的变化时，情况就开始显得不同了。那么，问题出在哪里？我们知道，一家公司可持续派发的股息，只能与其产生的自由现金流相当。
十年前，自由现金流派息率是51%。现在，我们处在99.5%。所以，当我们看这些股息增长率时，是的，它在表面层面看起来不错，但现实是，这就是所谓的不可持续的股息增长。任何时候，一只股票派发股息的增速高于自由现金流的增速，那就是不可持续的股息增长。
所以这是个问题。股息不能再提高了，否则他们就会超过100%的自由现金流派息率，而这最终意味着他们在削弱资产负债表。
And I pointed this out before, but it's worth pointing out again. Look at Pepsi's dividend metrics. Again, what you'll see on the surface level, nice starting yield, 4.26%. 26% dividend growth in the range of 6 to 7% over the last 5 and 10 years with a history of growing dividends.
I mean, it's a dividend king stock. 50 consecutive years of dividend increases. But the story starts to look different when we look at the free cash flow payout ratio over time.
So, what are the issues here? Well, we know a company can only sustainably pay out as much in dividends as it generates in free cash flow. A decade ago, the free cash payout ratio was 51%.
Now, we're sitting at 99.5%. So when we look at these dividend growth rates, yes, it looks good on the surface level, but the reality is that this was what's known as unsustainable dividend growth.
Anytime a stock is growing dividends at a rate higher than free cash flow is growing, that's unsustainable dividend growth. So that's an issue. The dividend can't go any higher without them going over 100% free cash payout ratio, which ultimately means they're weakening the balance sheet.
但当我们去看自由现金流派息率随时间的变化时，情况就开始显得不同了。那么，问题出在哪里？我们知道，一家公司可持续派发的股息，只能与其产生的自由现金流相当。十年前，自由现金流派息率是51%。
现在，我们处在99.5%。所以，当我们看这些股息增长率时，是的，它在表面层面看起来不错，但现实是，这就是所谓的不可持续的股息增长。任何时候，一只股票派发股息的增速高于自由现金流的增速，那就是不可持续的股息增长。
所以这是个问题。股息不能再提高了，否则他们就会超过100%的自由现金流派息率，而这最终意味着他们在削弱资产负债表。
But the story starts to look different when we look at the free cash flow payout ratio over time. So, what are the issues here? Well, we know a company can only sustainably pay out as much in dividends as it generates in free cash flow.
A decade ago, the free cash payout ratio was 51%. Now, we're sitting at 99.5%. So when we look at these dividend growth rates, yes, it looks good on the surface level, but the reality is that this was what's known as unsustainable dividend growth.
Anytime a stock is growing dividends at a rate higher than free cash flow is growing, that's unsustainable dividend growth. So that's an issue. The dividend can't go any higher without them going over 100% free cash payout ratio, which ultimately means they're weakening the balance sheet.
但问题并不止于此。看看他们最近的财报。往下翻。我们来找找指引。你可以看到2026财年的指引和展望。以下是我们需要关注的地方。有机营收预计只会增长2%到4%。所以是低水平的营收增长。
我们会记住这一点。我们稍后会回来再看这个。但我们还可以看到自由现金流转换率至少为80%。至少80%。记住，自由现金流转换率基本上是在告诉我们，盈利中有多大比例被转化成了自由现金流。
如果我们跳到自由现金流分析表，看看百事的这个数据，从历史上看，一直往右翻。这是他们的自由现金流转换数字。去年是93%。
But the issue doesn't just stop there. Take a look at their recent earnings report. Scroll down. Let's look for guidance. You can see fiscal 2026 guidance and outlook. Here's what we need to pay attention to.
Organic revenue is projected to only increase between 2 and 4%. So low levels of revenue growth. We'll keep that in mind. We'll come back and look at that here in a moment. But we can also see a free cash flow conversion ratio of at least 80%.
At least 80%. Now remember, free cash conversion ratio is basically telling us what percentage of earnings is getting translated into free cash flow. And if we jump over to the free cash analysis sheet and look at this for Pepsi, historically speaking, scroll all the way over.
Here's their free cash flow conversion numbers. Last year, it was 93%.
那么，他们在告诉我们什么？他们在告诉我们，营收将增长大约2%到4%。所以大致与通胀持平，而自由现金流转换率很可能会低于去年，至少为80%。那么，这意味着什么？很可能意味着，2026年的自由现金流可能会比2025年更低，而这自然意味着自由现金流派息率将超过100%。
So, what are they telling us? Well, they're telling us revenue is going to grow at roughly 2 to 4%. So, roughly in line with inflation, and the free cash flow conversion ratio will likely be lower than it was last year, at least 80%.
So, what does that mean? Well, more than likely what that means is we could see free cash flow be even lower in 2026 than it was in 2025, which naturally means the free cash flow payout ratio will be over 100%.
但问题真的不止于此。看看这个。他们不只是在派发股息，他们还在回购股票。所以2026年向股东返还的总现金将约为89亿。其中79亿是股息，股票回购为10亿。所以一下子，他们已经在股息和股票回购上使用了超过100%的自由现金流。
这家公司陷入了资本配置灾难，因为他们没有剩下任何资本可以再投资回业务中。
But the issues really don't just stop there. Take a look at this. They're not just paying out dividends, they're buying back stock. So total cash returns to shareholders in 2026 will be approximately 8.9 billion.
7.9 billion of dividends and sherry purchases at 1 billion. So all of a sudden they're already using more than 100% of their free cash flow for dividends and share buybacks. The company's in a capital allocation disaster because they don't have any capital left over to reinvest back into the business.
而在这段时间里，他们还在推进像Poppy这样的并购，这些并购确实有可能成为业务的助力，可能带来较高的投入资本回报。但话说回来，现实是，任何一家公司做这类事情，同时又把全部资本用于回购和分红，都会削弱资产负债表。
他们不得不举债来为这些项目提供资金。因此，对百事而言，尽管其估值倍数正处于过去10年来的最低水平，风险却仍在持续上升。
And during this time, they're also pursuing mergers and acquisitions like Poppy, which certainly do have the potential to be a credit for the business. They could generate a high return on their invested capital.
But again, the reality is anytime a company is doing something like this and they're using all their capital for buybacks and dividends, they are weakening the balance sheet. They're having to take out debt to fund these projects.
And so the risk for Pepsi, even though they're trading at their lowest valuation multiple in the last 10 years, does continue to grow.
那么，这只股票能扭转局面吗？是的，它确实有能力做到。这种情况总是存在的。从风险回报的角度看，这只股票有吸引力吗？我真的不这么认为。从股息率和股息增长数据来看，表面上的股息指标看起来很有吸引力。但当你深入审视资本配置时，就会发现更多的担忧。
So, can the stock turn things around? Yes, it does have the ability to do that. That's certainly always the case. Is the stock attractive from a risk-to-reward perspective? I really don't think that's the case.
The headline dividend metrics look attractive with the yield and dividend growth numbers. But when you start to dive into the capital allocation, there's a lot more concerns.
即使我们从股息贴现模型的角度来看这只股票，让我们先拉远视角，看看百事。我们来看那个股息贴现模型，放大仔细看，我们会看到这样的结果。如果百事以3%的速度增长股息，考虑到当前的环境，这已经相当不错了，那么这只股票的价值将是105美元。
如果他们能实现4%，那么当前股价已接近公允价值，但仍有一些下行空间。所以，你能理解为什么现在对百事存在担忧。他们必须在此后以大约4.25%的速度增长股息，才能支撑当前的估值。这就是我目前对百事的担忧，因为这不是必然能实现的，尤其是在未来几年。
所以，再次从风险回报的角度看，我认为有更好的机会。
And even if we look at this stock from a dividend discount model perspective, let's go ahead and zoom out and take a look at Pepsi. Let's look at that dividend discount model. We'll zoom in closely.
And here's what we'll see. If Pepsi grows the dividend at 3%, which would be pretty great considering the current conditions, the stock would be worth $105. If they can achieve 4%, they're trading close to fair value right now, but there's still some downside.
So, you can see why there's concerns for Pepsi right now. They have to grow dividends at roughly 4.25% moving forward to justify their current valuation. That's my concern with Pepsi right now because that's not a given, particularly over the next few years.
So, again, from a risk-reward perspective, I think there's better opportunities.
这个频道对 $PEP 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。