PG 因产品需求属于非可选消费而成为防御性持仓。
逐段跳播
我们最新的操作在宝洁上没有变化，而我很好奇。我们看到很多人把基础消费品纳入“三巨头”，因为当市场开始变得有风险时，我们会看到这种向看似安全的东西的回流。你现在认为宝洁对你来说是一个安全的押注吗，Jason？
Our latest moves haven't changed with Procter & Gamble, and I'm curious. We have seen many people include basic consumer goods in the "Big Three" because when things start to get risky in the markets, we see this shift back towards what seems safe.
Do you consider Procter & Gamble a safe bet for you now, Jason?
是的，宝洁存在这种持续的拉锯，就像Capital One一样。高利率通常被认为对信用卡公司有利。是的，当消费者陷入困境并支付过多信用卡债务时，这就不好了。
Yes, there is that ongoing tug-of-war with Procter & Gamble, just as there is with Capital One. High interest rates are generally considered good for credit card companies. Yes, it is bad when the consumer is in distress and paying too much credit card debt.
这类似，不，并不完全相同，但在宝洁身上略有不同。当市场高度波动或处于低迷时，投资者通常会转向基础消费品作为避风港或对冲。但问题就在这里。利率已重新提供有吸引力的回报，10年期美国国债收益率已超过5%。
所以，现在的问题是：当我可以买入无风险的美国国债并获得超过5%的保证回报时，为什么还要诉诸基础消费品？因此，即便是基础消费品，现在也面临着作为避风港的竞争，可以这么说。
It's similar, no, not exactly the same, but slightly different with Procter & Gamble. Investors typically turn to basic consumer goods as a safe haven or a hedge when the market is highly volatile or in a downturn.
But here lies the problem. Interest rates have returned to offering attractive returns, and 10-year Treasury bonds have exceeded 5%. So, the question now is: Why resort to basic consumer goods when I can buy risk-free Treasury bonds and get a guaranteed return of over 5%?
Therefore, even basic consumer goods now face competition for being a safe haven, so to speak.
但我喜欢宝洁的地方在于，与麦当劳和Capital One不同，它不依赖可支配收入用于娱乐消费。宝洁的特点是，人们实际上仍然需要Tide、Pampers、Charmin卫生纸、牙膏以及所有这些东西，对吧？
因此，它是你最不可能想到要放弃的东西，而麦当劳可能是你最先决定停止花钱的东西。至于信用卡，你可能会停止使用它，或者你根本无力偿还，但你仍然需要卫生纸、牙膏、除臭剂等等。这就是我钦佩宝洁的原因。
But what I like about Procter & Gamble is that, unlike McDonald's and Capital One, it does not rely on disposable income for entertainment spending. The thing about Procter & Gamble is that people still actually need Tide, Pampers, Charmin toilet paper, toothpaste, and all that stuff, right?
Therefore, it is the last thing you might think of giving up, whereas McDonald's might be the first thing you decide to stop spending your money on. As for the credit card, you may stop using it or you may be unable to pay at all , but you will still need toilet paper, toothpaste, deodorant, etc. This is why I admire Procter & Gamble.
看这张图你会发现，这家公司一直在横盘，我认为这为我接下来要谈的这笔交易提供了完美的布局。我不会过多深入数字细节，但基本上它们是稳定的。数字保持稳定，销售额可能上涨了1%。净销售额上涨了3%，但这家公司的营收和其他一切都没有变化，所以我认为该股正在横盘，在一个明确的区间内酝酿出一个不错的交易机会。
When you look at the chart, you'll find that this company is moving sideways, and I think that's a perfect setup for the deal I'm going to talk about. I won't go into too much detail about the numbers, but basically they were stable.
The numbers remained stable, and sales rose perhaps by 1%. Net sales rose by 3%, but revenue and everything else was flat for this company, and that's why I think the stock is moving sideways , setting up a good trading opportunity within a defined range.
是的，看Procter & Gamble时确实有很强的稳定性。我的意思是，从年初到现在我们上涨了约3%，而如果看过去52周，我们下跌了约3%。但话说回来，局势仍然徘徊在变化不大的水平附近。
看看我们在这只股票上看到的偶发表现，Rick，哪些价位在你看来比较突出？
Yes, there is a lot of stability when looking at Procter & Gamble. I mean, from the beginning of the year until now we are up about 3%, and if we look at the past 52 weeks, we have fallen about 3%.
But again, the situation is still hovering around levels with little change . When you look at the occasional performance we 've seen for this stock, Rick, what levels seem prominent to you?
是的，正如你们两位所说，这张图上看起来可能有很大的波动，但实际上从百分比变化来看并没有大的净变动。这里的总体区间反复出现，顶部在153附近，与之对应的是反复出现的底部在141附近。
你也可以说，我们在这里看到了一个三角形形态，并且已经开始出现向上突破。然而，我们并没有突破财报公布后约148附近的近期高点。所以，到目前为止，这次温和的突破被未能突破这一阻力位所掩盖。
我们的251日指数移动平均线就在上方，与今天约149的高点一致。相对强弱指数（RSI）仍平均位于50中线上方，但可以说仍低于一条向下倾斜的长期红色趋势线。因此，我们的成交量分布再次显示，我们在这里经历了一段区间非常有限的时期。
我们约144.45的控制点位于143至149这一区间的核心，表明偶发活动仍在持续。
Yes, as you both said, there may appear to be large fluctuations on this chart, but in reality there is no large net movement in terms of percentage changes. The general range here is repeated with a ceiling at around 153, which is met by a repeated floor at around 141.
You could also say that we have seen a triangular shape here in which we have begun to see an upward breakout. However, we did not break through the recent highs we saw after the earnings announcement at around 148.
So, this modest breakout has so far been overshadowed by the failure to break through this resistance level . Our 251-day exponential moving average is just above us, in line with today's highs around 149.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still averaged above the midline at 50, but arguably still below a long-term red trend line that is heading downwards. Therefore, our trading volume profile shows once again that we have gone through a very limited-range period here.
Our control point at approximately 144.45 lies in the heart of this range between 143 and 149, indicating continued occasional activity.
好，Jason，时间不多了，但我想确保我们谈到你关于Procter & Gamble的那笔交易。那么，跟我们讲讲你如何看待这笔交易，以及它的时间框架是什么。
Okay, Jason, time is running out, but I want to make sure we get to your deal with Procter & Gamble. So, explain to us how you view this deal and what its timeframe is.
当然。2027年1月15日。你大约有113天。我关注的是140的执行价，因为我们上次在140这一水平找到了支撑。这会让你的盈亏平衡点落在152。我们知道该股可以上涨到152附近的短期阻力位。
这实际上让你处于盈亏平衡，但在时间上你能获利。我最后想补充的是，我希望看到该股收于200日移动平均线上方。目前，该股刚刚跌破其200日移动平均线。如果价格保持在200日移动平均线下方，我会在进入这笔交易前等待，但如果它收于200日移动平均线上方，这是一笔我会关注的交易。
certainly. January 15, 2027. You have about 113 days. I am looking at the execution price of 140, as we found support at the 140 level last time. This will put your breakeven point at 152.
We know that the stock can rise to a short-term resistance level around 152. This puts you at breakeven in substance, but you make a profit in time terms. The last thing I would add is that I want to see the stock close above the 200-day moving average .
Currently, the stock has just fallen below its 200-day moving average. If the price remains below the 200- day moving average, I will wait before entering this trade, but it is a trade I will watch if it closes above the 200-day moving average.
正如我们提到的，Procter & Gamble的表现一直以稳定为特征，目前在本交易时段稳定在147.29。
Well, as we mentioned, Procter & Gamble's performance has been characterized by stability, and it is currently stable in this session at 147.29.
这个频道对 $PG 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。