在高需求与稳定的47%增长预期推动下,PLTR股价具备上行潜力(可能达到250美元),尽管近期存在争议。
逐段跳播
美国政府目前正指责 Palunteer,称其软件中的错误导致一所学校成为目标。
The United States government is currently blaming Palunteer for errors in its software that led to a school being targeted.
我会根据近期的报道向你解释,Palontaire 是如何被追究责任的。
And I will explain to you, based on recent reports, how Palontaire is being held responsible for this.
这里或许存在对 Pallontiar 公司的过度依赖。我稍后会向你解释这一点。但如果你不熟悉 Palointer,它的股票带来了巨额利润,实际上是极其庞大的利润。由于与美国政府的合作,它拥有广泛的营销,以至于许多公司都说:“如果你能在网络安全领导层和军方那里处理敏感且安全的信息,那你一定是一家优秀的公司。
我们想使用你的服务。”因此,Palontaire 已经有了一长串想要使用其软件的客户等候名单。
Here, perhaps, there was an excessive reliance on the Pallontiar company. I will explain that to you in a little while. But in case you are not familiar with Palointer, its shares generate huge profits, indeed enormous profits.
They have extensive marketing thanks to their work with the US government, to the point that many companies say: "If you are able to handle sensitive and secure information with the cybersecurity leadership and the military, then you must be an excellent company.
We want to use your services." Therefore, Palontaire already has a long waiting list of customers who want to use its software.
如果你以前没听说过,这位是 Karp 先生。他是 Palontaire 的 CEO,近来因他在互联网上的言论而闻名,无论是在人工智能领域,还是在电视上,他声称 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 等领先的 AI 模型窃取用户数据,而唯一可以被信任来保护你数据的人,是与政府密切合作的人,也就是所谓的“Palontaire”。
If you haven't heard of this before, this is Mr. Karp. He is the CEO of Palontaire, and is famous these days for his statements on the internet, whether in the world of artificial intelligence or even on television, where he claims that leading AI models, such as OpenAI and Anthropic, steal user data, and that the only people who can be trusted to protect your data are people who work in close cooperation with the government, i.e., what is known as "Palontaire".
该公司的股票确实非常赚钱,但它现在被指控可能导致了 123 名儿童的死亡,这无疑是悲剧性的。平心而论,我买入 Palontaire 股票时并不知道有任何针对它的怀疑。我只是想对此坦诚。我已经持有 Palontier 的股票。
It is true that the company's shares are very profitable, but it is now accused of potentially causing the deaths of 123 children, which is certainly tragic. To be fair, I was unaware of any suspicions against Palontaire when I bought its shares.
I just wanted to be honest about this. I already own shares in Palontier.
是否继续持有这家公司是个人的决定,我们会在之后的视频中讨论,但首先我们需要审视所提出的那些说法。这不是对 Palontaire 评估的更新,尽管我们稍后会讨论那一点。我们只会提一下对其评估的一个简短更新。
Well, the question of whether to keep this company or not is a personal decision, and we will discuss it in a later video, but first we need to review the claims made. This is not an update to Palontaire's assessment, although we will discuss that later.
We will only mention a brief update on its evaluation.
如果你使用像 Palunteer 这样的程序,用人工智能来锁定并杀死人,而没有人到现场去确认这确实是 AI 所指的目标,那么这就是一个过时信息或 AI 系统导致 123 名儿童死亡的例子。
if you use a program like Palunteer to target and kill people with artificial intelligence, and no one has gone through the place to make sure that it is indeed what the AI is pointing to, then this is an example of outdated information or an AI system contributing to the deaths of 123 children.
无论是因为 Palantir 的产品 Muffin,还是因为五角大楼的预算削减或类似的原因。
Whether it's because of Muffin, a Palantir product, or because of Pentagon budget cuts or something similar.
美国中央司令部(Sentcom)的一些官员认为,美国已变得过度依赖 Maven 智能系统中内置的人工智能。Maven 软件由 Palanteer Technologies 开发,允许用户利用 AI 驱动的软件查看和协调复杂的军事行动,从目标识别到指挥与控制,该软件将 150 多个数据输入整合为连贯的信息集,使指挥官能够据此做出决策。
Some officials at U.S. Central Command (Sentcom) argue that the United States has become overly reliant on the artificial intelligence built into the Maven intelligent system. Developed by Palanteer Technologies, Maven software allows users to view and coordinate complex military operations, from target identification to command and control, using AI-powered software that integrates more than 150 data inputs into coherent information sets, enabling commanders to make decisions based on them.
许多前高级军官现在为 Palanteer 工作。所以,我们目前看到一种流动,在国防部或我猜是战争部工作的人,正转向 Palanteer 去私营部门工作。很明显,他们——我不该说“肯定”——在 Palanteer 赚的钱会远远多于在政府工作。
如果你为政府工作,你大概仍然认识在那里工作的人,这让你能够续签那些合同。你实际上在美国军方内部拥有根深蒂固的利益集团,他们希望这个项目继续成功下去。
Many former senior military officials now work for Palanteer. So, we are currently seeing a movement where people who work at the Department of Defense or the Ministry of War, I believe, are moving to Palanteer to work in the private sector.
It is clear that they—I should not say "certainly"—will make far more money at Palanteer than they would have in government work. If you work for the government, you probably still know people who work there, which allows you to renew those contracts.
You essentially have entrenched interests within the U.S. military who want this program to continue to be successful.
我不认为这里有人在明确指责 Maven。也许可以说库才是罪魁祸首。而这正是你用 inter 所做的事。但坦率地说,我认为如果你用人工智能来杀人,它就应该包含一个功能或纠错机制,在关键信息可能过时时提醒你。
I don't think anyone here is explicitly blaming Maven. It might be argued that libraries are to blame. And that's exactly what you do with the inter. But frankly, I think if you have artificial intelligence being used to kill people, it should include a feature or error-correction mechanism that alerts you to when vital information might be outdated.
CENCOM 的工作人员期望 Maven 能指出过时的信息,或所收集的关于潜在目标的情报中的不一致之处。这并不神秘;这种期望的原因很清楚。换句话说,Syncom 的员工想:“我们以为如果信息过时了,他会告诉我们。”
CENCOM staff expected Maven to point to outdated information or inconsistencies in the underlying intelligence gathered on potential targets. It was not a mystery; the reason for this expectation was clear.
In other words, the employees at Syncom thought: "We thought he would tell us if the information was outdated."
看来出现了一种误解,因为 Palantir 否认对底层数据或识别情报缺陷负有责任,而我认为这是一种逃避责任。
It appears that a misunderstanding has occurred, because Palantir denies responsibility for the underlying data or identifying intelligence shortcomings, which I see as an evasion of responsibility.
一个旨在杀人的情报程序,难道有可能识别不出缺陷吗?这是不可接受的。
Is it conceivable that an intelligence program designed to kill people would not identify shortcomings? This is unacceptable.
在美国袭击伊朗之前,这项工作的大部分被用 Maven 平台压缩到了几分钟内完成。换句话说,我们当时在收集 150 条信息,分析它们要花我们几个小时。相反,因为 Donald Trump 需要昨天就把这件事办完,他们只有几分钟,他们以为有来自旧数据的警告,但事实并非如此。
Prior to the American attack on Iran, much of this work was condensed into a few minutes using the Maven platform. In other words, we were collecting 150 pieces of information, and it took us hours to analyze them.
Instead, because Donald Trump needed to get this done yesterday, they only had a few minutes, and they thought there were warnings from old data, but that wasn't the case.
那么,这对 Palunter 意味着什么?
Now, what does this mean for Palunter?
我不认为我在 Palunter 这件事上有什么偏见。
I don't think I have any bias here regarding Palunter.
该股目前的交易价格是17464或17764。或者,如果除以市盈率,它的交易价格是109倍。这看起来像是惊人的财富。但他们的增长率预计在未来四年将稳定保持在47%。这意味着市盈率大约为2.3。
The stock is trading at 17464 or 17764. Or, if you divide it by the price-to-earnings ratio , it is trading at 109 times. This seems like obscene wealth . But their growth rate is expected to remain stable at 47% over the next four years.
This means that the price-to- earnings ratio is approximately 2.3.
如果我们假设他们的增长率可能略高一些,股价可能达到250美元,或者更可能在243美元左右。因此,有趣的是,鉴于市场对这个高利润率项目的强劲需求,这只股票还有增长空间。
If we assume that their growth rate might be slightly higher, the stock price could reach $250, or more likely around $243. Therefore, it is interesting that there is room for growth in this stock, given the high demand for this high-margin program.
不幸的是,他们越是谈论与美国军方的合作关系,他们在私营部门获得工作的机会就越大。在政府领域,他们可能需要有人与Palantir竞争,但这已经在发生了。
Unfortunately, the more they talked about their partnerships with the US military, the greater their chances of getting jobs in the private sector. They may need competition for Palantir in the government sector, but that's already happening.
这个频道对 $PLTR 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 7 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。