QCOM被低估，是首选买入；DCF显示公允价值为283美元，而价格为170美元，意味着未来12-18个月有67%的上行空间。
逐段跳播
Marvell 和高通正准备利用对 AI 数据中心日益增长的需求来获利。与此同时，高通正在投资于数据中心计算解决方案的创新、研发，以及加速中央处理器（CPU），旨在弥合当前数据中心内内存市场与 CPU 和图形之间的差距。
Marvell and Qualcomm are preparing to capitalize on the growing demand for AI data centers . At the same time, Qualcomm is investing in the innovation, research and development of computing solutions for data centers, and accelerated central processing units (CPUs) aimed at bridging the current gap between the memory market and CPUs and graphics within data centers.
基于以上所有情况，现在哪只股票更值得买入：高通还是 Marvell？从营收情况来看，高通是一家比Marvell大得多的公司，其营收是Marvell的四倍多，高通为440亿美元，而Marvell为94.5亿美元。
Based on all of the above, which of the two stocks is better to buy now: Qualcomm or Marvell? Looking at the revenue profile, Qualcomm is a much larger company compared to Marvel , with revenues more than four times those of Marvel, at $44 billion versus $ 9.45 billion for Marvel.
与此同时，高通一直在创新、研发一款用于数据中心的中央处理器产品，并拥有一个主要客户Meta Platforms，但该技术仍处于开发阶段。
Meanwhile, Qualcomm has been innovating, researching and developing a product, a central processing unit for data centers, and has a major customer, Meta Platforms, but it is still in the development phase of this technology.
这项技术目前尚未产生可观的销售额。据估计，高通要到2027年年中才会开始产生任何收入，并且可能要到2028年底才会从这些新的数据中心产品中获得可观的收入。
This technology still does not generate significant sales . It is estimated that Qualcomm will not start generating any revenue until mid-2027, and probably will not generate any significant revenue from these new data center products until late 2028.
当我们观察高通和Marvell的营业利润率时，可以看到半导体行业的周期性特征。过去十年，高通的利润率在20%至30%之间波动，最近达到23.5%。
We can observe the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry when we look at the operating profit margins of both Qualcomm and Marvell. Qualcomm's profit margins have fluctuated between 20% and 30% over the past decade, reaching 23.5% recently.
高通的利润率轨迹是向下的，因为数据中心收入开始流入还需要一段时间。
Qualcomm's trajectory is downward , as it will take some time before data center revenues start to flow.
与此同时，数据中心支出的增加推高了内存价格，给智能手机行业带来了重大障碍，而智能手机是高通产生可观收入的关键领域。
At the same time, increased spending on data centers has driven up memory prices , creating a major obstacle for the smartphone industry , a key category from which Qualcomm generates significant revenue.
因此，其利润率可能会在上升之前先下降，而且这种情况可能要到2027年之后才会发生。Marvell的营业利润率为16.8%，与高通相差不远，因此有理由认为，在未来12至24个月内，Marvell的营业利润率将超过高通。
Therefore, its profit margins are likely to decline before they start to rise, and that probably won't happen before 2027. At 16.8%, it is not too far off Qualcomm, and it is reasonable to assume that Marvell's operating profit margin will exceed Qualcomm's margin within the next twelve to twenty-four months.
但我认为这种增长将是暂时的，当高通开始从数据中心获得收入，并且如果内存价格从2028年开始达到平衡，高通的营业利润率长期来看可能会超过Marvell。
But I think this increase will be temporary, and when Qualcomm starts generating revenue from data centers, and if memory prices reach equilibrium starting in 2028, Qualcomm's operating profit margins are likely to surpass Marvell's in the long run.
同样，当我们衡量投入资本回报率时，我们发现高通的数据最好，但Marvell的改善幅度要大得多。
Similarly, when we measure the return on invested capital, we find that Qualcomm has the best figure, but Marvell improves significantly more .
高通的投入资本回报率为23%，超过了其加权平均资本成本，这是一个良好的基准，而Marvell的12.61%仅勉强与其平均资本成本持平。
At 23%, Qualcomm's return on invested capital exceeds its weighted average cost of capital, which is a good baseline, while Marvell's 12.61% barely matches its average cost of capital.
同样，有理由认为Marvell的投入资本回报率在短期内将超过高通，但在更长的时间内，我预计高通将获得比Marvell更好的回报。
Again, it is reasonable to assume that Marvel's return on invested capital will surpass Qualcomm's in the near term, but over longer periods of time, I expect Qualcomm to achieve a better return compared to Marvel.
因此，从评级来看，情况很有意思。正如我在视频前面提到的，我们注意到Marvell已经从人工智能热潮中受益，而高通则因这一热潮及其对内存市场的影响而面临阻力，这影响了智能手机行业。
Therefore, looking at the rating tells an interesting story . As I mentioned earlier in the video, we noticed that Marvell is already benefiting from the AI boom, while Qualcomm is facing headwinds as a result of this boom and its effects on the memory market, which impacts the smartphone industry.
按远期市盈率计算，Marvell的市值几乎是高通的两倍，达到31.7，这几乎是高通16.7估值的两倍。我同意市场的看法，即Marvell的估值应该高于高通，但我认为这一溢价水平（几乎是高通价值的两倍）似乎过高。
Marvell’s market value is almost double that of Qualcomm when measured on a forward price-to-earnings basis, reaching 31.7, which is almost double Qualcomm’s valuation of 16.7. Now, I agree with the market that Marvell should be traded at a higher valuation compared to Qualcomm , but I think the level of that premium, which is almost double Qualcomm's value, seems excessive.
因此，我也喜欢用贴现现金流模型来评估估值，对于高通股票，我计算出的公允价值为283美元，而其当前市场价格为170美元。
Therefore, I also like to look at the valuation using the discounted cash flow model, and for Qualcomm stock, I calculated a fair value of $283 compared to its current market price of $170.
高通股价在未来12至18个月内似乎有67%的上涨空间。因此，无论我看未来盈利倍数还是贴现现金流模型，我都得到类似的估值结果；Marvell的股票估值似乎被高估，而高通的估值似乎被低估。
It appears there is a 67% upside opportunity for Qualcomm shares over the next 12 to 18 months. Therefore, I get a similar valuation result whether I look at future earnings multiples or discounted cash flow models ; Marvell's stock valuation appears to be overvalued, while Qualcomm's valuation appears to be undervalued.
如果今天我必须在这两家公司之间做出选择，我会选择高通作为更值得买入的股票。
So, if I had to make a decision between these two companies today, I would choose Qualcomm as the better stock to buy.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $QCOM 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。