由于营业利润崩塌且销售及管理费用上升，RHS 仍是一项持续亏损的业务；入场时机很可能为时过早。
逐段跳播
非常简短地看一下 Restoration Hardware，因为我们看过它，而且我得，你知道，我们得在某个地方提一下它。简单提一下 Restoration Hardware。
Very briefly to look at Restoration Hardware, because we looked at it and I got to you know, we got to mention it somewhere. Small mention on Restoration Hardware.
一开始，我们看它的时候会觉得，哦，他们盈利超预期了。这不错。但我想让你看看营业利润发生了什么。营业利润同比大幅下滑。我们从 1.41 亿美元降到了 1.07 亿美元。
Initially, we look at it's like, oh, they beat earnings. This is cool. But I want you to see what's happening on operating income. Operating income has collapsed year over year. We went from $141 million to $107 million.
他们剔除那些乱七八糟调整后的利润从 7200 万美元降到了 5800 万。想想看。5800 万，原来是 7200 万。我们下降了将近 20%，19.5%。
Their income before bull crap adjustments went down from $72 million to 58. And just think about that. 58, it was 72. We're down almost 20%, 19.5%.
他们的利息支出下降了，对此我很感激。他们的利息支出下降，是因为他们在偿还一部分债务。但看看这个。净收入增长了 2.5%。而他们的，我们这里看到什么？我们这里看到什么？他们的销售及管理费用增长了 20.2%，所以这里有点危险信号。
Their interest expense is down, which I am grateful for. Their interest expense is down because they're paying off some debt. But look at this. Net revenue is up 2 and 1/2%. And their What do we got here? What do we got here? Their SG&A up 20.2% so a little bit of a red flag here.
现在，让我看看，其实是他们的销货成本，因为我认为他们仍在从库存中取货。销货成本，哦，销货成本在这里实际上同比下降了。我认为这是因为他们仍在从库存中取货。这里相当不错。
Now, uh let me see actually their cost of goods sold cuz I think they're still grabbing from inventory. Uh cost of goods sold ooh cost of goods sold actually went down year-over-year right here. I think that's because they're still grabbing from inventory. That's pretty decent right here.
所以销货成本下降了，他们仍然能够实现 2.5% 的收入增长，但我要说，他们实际的运营成本仍在上升。所以他们的整体利润率仍在收缩。
So that cost of goods sold went down and they still were able to grow revenue at 2.5% but I will say their actual operating costs are still rising. So their overall PP is still shrinking.
但其中一部分销货成本可能来自他们所进行的囤积。换句话说，他们的一部分利润率保护可能来自囤积。这是怎么运作的？嗯，运作方式是，你听到关税被宣布，于是你把所有现金都花出去。你的现金降到 4100 万美元，这非常少。
你建立起库存，然后随着时间慢慢减少库存，再次增加现金。所以我称之为，他们是为冬天做好准备的那头熊。他们把自己养肥了，现在正在瘦身，把一部分库存变成现金。
But and some of this cost of goods sold might be coming from the fattening that they have done. In other words, some of their margin protection can come from fattening up. How does that work? Well, how that works is you hear tariffs get announced so you blow all your cash. You go down to $41 million of cash which is very little. You build up inventories and now you slowly reduce your inventories over time and increase your cash again. So I call it they're the bear that got ready for winter. They fattened up and now they're leaning out and they're turning some of that inventory to cash.
我认为这仍在帮助他们形成缓冲，但他们的运营成本占营收的比重仍在上升，所以仍然存在定价权问题。我认为他们在真正把价格和增长提上去方面遇到了困难。
I think that's still helping insulate them but their operating costs are still going up as a percentage of rev so you still have a pricing power issue. Uh I think they're having trouble you know really getting prices and growth up.
我的意思是，毕竟我们在这里看到，6个月期间的营收仅增长了0.5%。而销售及管理费用增长了9%。公平地说，这里的毛利润增长了1.5%。所以，他们能够消化掉其中一部分利润率压力。
I mean after all we see this over here revenue on a 6-month period is only up half a percent. Well, SG&A is up 9%. Gross profit in fairness was up 1.5% right here. Okay, so you know, they are able to absorb some of the margins there.
当我们更细致地看这一点时，他们通过动用库存消化了一部分。这是好事。他们这里的资产负债表显示，他们有6.3亿美元的账单要付。而我们只有1.25亿美元。所以我们确实需要进一步推进并卖出更多，而他们的流动资产相对缺乏流动性。
When we look at this a little bit more detailed, they're absorbing a little bit from by using their inventory. That's good. Their balance sheet right here suggests they have bills to pay at $630 million. We only have $125 million bucks. So we really need to go through and sell more and their current assets are relatively illiquid.
所以，我越看越觉得，这仍然是一项在失血的业务。看起来我们还没有到那种最痛苦的顶点。我认为最痛苦的顶点会在公司真正出去按市场价采购销货成本、而不再只是消化库存的时候到来。
So you know, the more and more I look at it, the more I go, it's still a bleeding business. We still haven't gotten to sort of peak pain, it seems like. And I think peak pain gets realized when the company goes out and actually buys market rate cost of goods sold, and they don't just absorb inventory.
话虽如此，他们正在偿还债务。所以，他们做得不错，他们在付清账单，这对他们是好事。这里有一些希望，但我仍然认为对这只股票来说可能还为时过早。
That said, they are paying off debt. So, they're doing a good job, they're paying off their bills, good for them. There's some hope here, but I still think it might be a little too soon on this one.
讽刺的是，在这里我实际上更喜欢Oracle，而不是Restoration Hardware。
Ironically, I actually like Oracle better here than Restoration Hardware.
这个频道对 $RHS 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。