SBUX 评级为中性；尽管对 CEO 的战略持正面看法，但估值过高（远期市盈率 30，股价 93，而 DCF 合理价值为 66）。
逐段跳播
对于星巴克股票的投资者来说，有一条值得关注的消息：公司已宣布将再关闭250家门店。当然，如果你一直关注我对星巴克的报道，我一直在强调这是一个很可能出现的情形。
We have interesting news for Starbucks stock investors, as the company has announced the closure of an additional 250 stores. And of course, if you've been following my coverage of Starbucks, I've been emphasizing that this is a likely scenario .
我认为星巴克受困于我以及许多经济学家所称的“规模不经济”，即其规模导致了效率低下。这种情况发生在一家企业或其某个业务板块扩张得过大，以至于难以有效管理，成本开始以快于销售增长的速度上升。
I feel that Starbucks suffers from what I, and many economists, call "economies of scale," where its size leads to inefficiency. This happens when a business, or one of its sectors, grows so large that it becomes difficult to manage effectively, and costs begin to rise at a faster rate than sales growth.
所以，当这种情况发生时，公司通常应当进行瘦身，剥离一些对整体盈利能力或整体竞争优势没有贡献的部分。
So, when that happens, it usually makes sense for a company to downsize and remove some parts that do not contribute to overall profitability or overall competitive advantage .
让我们来看看这些细节，以及为什么我认为后面还会有更多。在周四发布在星巴克博客并发送给员工的一则消息中，首席运营官Mike Grams透露，计划本周关闭美国和加拿大的250家门店。
Let's take a look at these details, and why I think there's more to come. In a message posted on the Starbucks blog and sent to employees on Thursday, Chief Operating Officer Mike Grams revealed plans to close 250 stores in the United States and Canada this week.
我认为这个问题在北美，尤其是在美国，更为严重。星巴克覆盖面很广，每个街角都有一家门店，视你住在哪里，甚至可能每个街角不止一家门店。
I think the problem is more acute in North America, especially in the United States . Starbucks has a wide reach, with a branch on every street corner, and possibly more than one branch on every street corner depending on where you live.
因此，250家门店还不到其在美国和加拿大门店总数的1%。
Therefore, 250 stores represent less than 1% of their total number of stores in the United States and Canada.
他们在全球总共有超过40,000家门店。因此，与整体情况相比，这个数字很小。这就是为什么我相信后面还会有更多。
In total, they have more than 40,000 branches worldwide. Therefore, this number is small compared to the general situation. That's why I believe there's more to come .
到目前为止，他们已经进行了两轮门店关闭，而我认为还需要更多。我认为星巴克已经发展到难以管理的规模。
They've done two rounds of store closures so far , and I think more are needed. I think Starbucks has grown to a size that is difficult to manage.
这一切都要归功于星巴克首席执行官Brian Nicol。他在Chipotle时是一位出色的首席执行官，而在星巴克到目前为止开局也非常出色。
All credit to Brian Nicol, CEO of Starbucks. He was a great CEO at Chipotle, and he's had an excellent start so far with Starbucks.
我赞同开始瘦身的策略。这体现了首席执行官Brian Nicol的成效，他把这个问题认定为需要纠正的问题之一。所以，这里有更多证据表明，这一经济体的过度规模正在造成问题。
I agree with the strategy of starting to downsize. This demonstrates the effectiveness of CEO Brian Nicol, who identified this problem as one of the issues that needed correcting.
So, here's more evidence that suggests the excessive size of this economy is causing problems.
你可以从营业利润率中看到这一点，自2017年以来它已大幅下降，当时为18%。现在是10%，对吧？
You can see this in the operating profit margin , which has decreased significantly since 2017 when it was 18%. It's at 10% now, isn't it?
随着公司规模扩大，销售额会增长，但营业利润率会收缩。这通常表明成本的增长速度快于收入的增长速度。Starbucks 的成本结构已经发生了显著变化。
As a company grows in size , sales grow, but operating profit margins shrink. This is usually evidence that costs are increasing at a faster rate than revenues. Starbucks' cost equation has changed significantly.
过去十年间，劳动力成本大幅上升。一线员工出现短缺，也就是那些在这些门店现场工作的人。难以找到足够熟练的员工到 Starbucks 门店工作，这一问题并不只限于 Starbucks 一家。
Labor costs have increased significantly over the past decade. There is a shortage of frontline workers , that is, people who work in person at these locations. The difficulty of finding enough skilled workers to work in Starbucks branches is not limited to Starbucks alone.
不仅如此，工资也大幅上涨了。美国几个州已经通过了最低工资法，尤其是加利福尼亚州，那里的餐饮业员工现在的最低工资被要求超过每小时 20 美元。
Not only that, but wages have also increased significantly. Minimum wage laws have been passed in several US states, notably in California, where restaurant workers are now required to earn more than $20 an hour as a minimum wage.
这些都是 Starbucks 未曾预料到会上升得如此之快的新情况，尤其是在冠状病毒疫情这一前所未有的背景下。这些因素彻底改变了 Starbucks 的算式，导致成本相对于开设更多门店的预期收益而言极高。
These are new things that Starbucks did not expect to rise so quickly, especially in light of the unprecedented circumstances of the coronavirus pandemic. These factors have radically changed the equation for Starbucks, resulting in a situation where the costs are extremely high compared to the expected benefits of opening additional branches.
我们也可以从公司的投入资本回报率中看到这一点，该指标在疫情前非常出色。投入资本回报率连续数年超过 30%。
We can also see this in the company's return on invested capital, which was excellent before the pandemic. The returns on invested capital exceeded 30% for several years.
随后疫情到来，接着是波动，如今投入资本回报率正逼近其最低水平，仅为 11.5%。这仅仅勉强覆盖公司的加权平均资本成本。
Then came the pandemic and the subsequent volatility, and now the return on invested capital is approaching its lowest level at only 11.5%. It barely covers the company's weighted average cost of capital.
因此，这些为增设新门店而投入的额外资本，所产生的回报不足以抵消资本成本。因此，我认为 Starbucks 越来越有必要减少其门店数量，
Therefore, these additional capital investments in adding new sites do not generate enough return to offset the cost of capital. Therefore, I believe there is an increasing need for Starbucks to reduce the number of its locations,
因此，我预计 Starbucks 在北美，具体来说是在美国，将继续关闭门店并让出部分市场份额，因为如果保住这部分份额会导致公司利润下降，那么 Starbucks 守住它就没有意义。
Therefore, I expect Starbucks in North America, specifically in the United States , to continue closing stores and giving up part of its market share, because there is no point in Starbucks holding onto this share if it will lead to a decrease in the company's profits.
短期内，这可能会改善 Starbucks 的盈利能力，但长期来看，如果 Starbucks 不小心，在业务重组过程中让出太多，就可能导致一个强大的新竞争对手 Dutch Bros. 或其他竞争对手的出现。
In the short term, this may improve Starbucks' profitability, but in the long term, it could lead to the emergence of a strong new competitor, Dutch Bros., or other competitors if Starbucks is not careful and gives up too much in the process of restructuring its business.
它确实处境艰难。好消息是，它有一位非常能干的 CEO 来应对这一局面。然而，这仍然很困难。我并不羡慕他的位置。
She is really in a difficult situation. The good news is that it has a very competent CEO to handle this situation. However, it remains difficult. I don't envy him his position.
Starbucks 股票目前的远期市盈率为 30，我认为这偏高。我认为对于一家处于这种境况的公司来说，这个价格过高，但多亏了 Brian Nicol，它享有这种程度的信任。
Starbucks shares are currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 30, which I consider high. I think this price is excessive for a company in this situation, but it enjoys this level of trust thanks to Brian Nicol.
如果你不知道的话，Brian Nicol 在 Starbucks，我是说在 Chipotle，做得如此出色，以至于投资者对他扭转 Starbucks 局面的能力如此有信心。
If you didn't know , Brian Nicol did such an excellent job at Starbucks, I mean at Chipotle, that investors are so confident in his ability to turn Starbucks around.
他们在为股票定价时已经将其中一些好处考虑在内。因此，在这种情况下，我不喜欢该股当前水平的估值。同样，我用现金流折现（DCF）模型计算出星巴克的合理价值为66。当前市场价格为93。
They already take some of these benefits into account when pricing their shares. Therefore, I don't like the stock's valuation at these levels under these circumstances. Similarly, I calculated the fair value of Starbucks using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model at 66. The current market price is 93.
星巴克是一个出色的品牌，我当然愿意把它纳入我的投资组合，但不是在这个水平。在买入以及上调买入评级之前，我更希望看到星巴克出现一个好得多的入场点。
Starbucks is a great brand and I would certainly like to add it to my portfolio, but not at these levels. I would prefer to see a much better entry point for Starbucks before buying and before raising my buy recommendation.
因此，我曾将该股评为“中性”，今天我重申这一评级。
Therefore, I had rated this stock as "neutral," and I will reaffirm that rating today.
这个频道对 $SBUX 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。