SCHD在2026年及以后仍可继续跑赢大盘，并作为市场对冲工具，提供强劲的长期回报。
逐段跳播
SCHD，即 Schwab 美国股息股票 ETF，已成为有史以来最受欢迎的股息 ETF，管理资产超过 1000 亿美元。
SCHD, the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF, [0:03] has become the most popular dividend ETF [0:06] of all time with over 100 billion in [0:08] assets under management.
在过去一年中，SCHD 上涨了 26.4%，而年初至今上涨了近 25%，而 2026 年才刚过一半多一点。
In the last year, SCHD is [0:47] up 26.4% [0:49] in year-to-date up nearly 25% just a [0:51] little over halfway into 2026.
因此，当我们仔细审视 SCHD 与标普 500 的表现时，我们已经指出，在过去一年以及 2026 年迄今为止，SCHD 表现出色。而 SCHD 仅上涨了 54.2%。
So, when we take a [1:51] close look at the performance for SCHD [1:53] versus the S&P 500, we've already [1:55] pointed [1:56] we've already pointed out the [1:57] exceptional outperformance over the last [2:00] year and year-to-date so far in 2026. while SCHD is only up 54.2%.
因此，难怪 SCHD 在此期间会表现不佳。然而，我们即将查看的数据显示，在多种市场情景下，SCHD 不仅能在 2026 年继续跑赢大盘，而且能在未来几年内继续跑赢。
So, it's no wonder why SCHD would [2:48] underperform during this time period. However, the data we're about to look at [2:52] reveals that there's multiple market [2:54] scenarios where SCHD can continue to [2:57] outperform not only in 2026, but over [2:59] the next couple of years.
它追踪的是道琼斯美国股息 100 指数。请记住这一点。这非常重要。基本上，有一些初步筛选条件，如股息支付历史、交易量、最低市值。它根据指示的年股息收益率对顶级股票进行排名，同时考虑质量指标，如自由现金流与总债务之比、股本回报率、5 年股息增长率，并对每只股票实施 4% 的上限。
It's tracking the Dow Jones [3:28] US Dividend 100 Index. Keep that in [3:31] mind. That's very important. Essentially, there's a few initial [3:34] screens like history of dividend [3:35] payments, trading volume, a minimum [3:37] market cap. It ranks the top stocks by [3:39] indicated annual dividend yield while [3:41] also looking at quality metrics such as [3:44] free cash flow to total debt, return on [3:46] equity, 5-year dividend growth rate, [3:48] while implementing a 4% cap per stock.
我们可以看到 SCHD 最早在 2011 年底开始交易。
We can see SCHD [4:15] first started trading back in late 2011.
记住，我们谈论的是道琼斯美国股息 100 指数，而 SCHD 追踪的正是这个指数。它回测的时间段之一是从 1998 年 12 月 31 日一直到 2026 年 8 月 7 日。
它显示了道琼斯美国股息 100 指数与标普 500 的总回报，这些回报绝对令人震惊。
Remember, the Dow Jones US Dividend 100 Index is what [5:51] we're talking about, and that's the [5:53] exact same index that SCHD tracks. And one of the time [6:13] periods it backtested was starting from [6:16] December 31st, 1998 all the way up until [6:19] August 7th, 2026. And it shows total [6:22] returns of the Dow Jones US Dividend 100 [6:24] Index versus the S&P 500, and the [6:27] returns are absolutely mind-blowing.
道琼斯美国股息 100 指数的累计回报率为 1,758%。换句话说，投资 10,000 美元于道琼斯美国股息 100 指数，将变成大约接近 186,000 美元。
The cumulative return of the Dow Jones US [6:31] Dividend 100 Index was 1,758% In other words, $10,000 in the Dow Jones [6:42] US Dividend 100 Index would have become [6:45] around close to 186K,
所以，我们现在谈论的是近 30 年的时间段，在此期间，SCHD 所追踪的标的指数实际上跑赢了标普 500，而且是以显著的优势跑赢的。
So, we're [6:50] now talking about a near 30-year time [6:52] period where the underlying index that, again, SCHD does follow, actually [6:57] outperformed the S&P 500, and it did so [7:00] by a significant margin.
我们在这里看到的是 Hartford Funds 从 1978 年到 2023 年的一项研究。请密切关注这一列。在黑色部分，我们可以看到股息增长者和新派息者的表现优于等权重市场。
它们跑赢了股息削减者和取消者以及不派息者。而且这是在整个时间段内。
What we can see here is a [7:45] study from Hartford Funds from 1978 to [7:47] 2023. Pay close attention to this column [7:50] right here. In the black, we can see [7:52] dividend growers and initiators [7:53] outperformed equal weighted universe. It [7:56] outperformed dividend cutters and [7:57] eliminators and non-dividend payers. And [8:00] this is over that entire time period.
因为现实是，我们知道 AI 正在改变整个资本市场格局。所以，让我们开始分解几个关键指标。现在，再次强调，我们在这里查看的数据直接来自 Schwab 的网站。请记住，这是过去 12 个月的数据，而不是前瞻性数据。
Because the reality is we [8:38] know AI is transforming the entire [8:40] capital market landscape. So, let's [8:42] start to break down a few key metrics. Now, again, the data we're looking at [8:45] here is pulled directly from Schwab's [8:47] website. And keep in mind, it's trailing [8:49] 12-month data, not forward-looking data.
所以，基本上 SCHD 比标普 500 便宜约 33%。然而，当我们开始看市现率估值时，差距变得更大。SCHD 为 10.35。
So, essentially SCHD is about 33% cheaper than the S&P 500. However, when we start to look at a [9:34] price-to-cash valuation, the disconnect [9:36] gets even larger. SCHD at 10.35
突然间，SCHD 的折价率达到了 45%，接近 46%。
All of a sudden, SCHD is sitting at a [9:45] 45, close to 46% discount.
再次强调，这一切只是在衡量净利润除以股东权益。因此，理论上，如果一家公司的净资产收益率为20%，那么它每1美元股东权益大约产生20%的年利润。
Now again, all this is doing is [10:10] measuring net income divided by [10:12] shareholders' equity. So, theoretically, [10:14] if a company had a 20% ROE, it's [10:16] generating roughly 20% of annual profit [10:19] for every $1 of shareholder equity.
现在，我们可以看到，如果我们假设市盈率不变，标普500指数在这种情景下实际上会比SCHD略有跑赢。但两者仍会录得非常强劲的总回报，因为再次强调，股息收益率加上每股收益增长就是我们这里的总回报，因为估值倍数没有变化。
Now, what we can see is if we assume no change in the PE multiple, the S&P 500 would actually see slight outperformance versus SCHD in the scenario. But, both would still be posting very strong total returns because again, the dividend yield plus EPS growth is what gives us our total return here because there is no change in the valuation multiple.
但是，如果我们看到标普500指数开始回归其历史市场平均水平，接近约23倍市盈率，而SCHD已经非常接近其历史市场平均水平，我们会突然发现SCHD跑赢标普500指数好几个百分点。
即使SCHD的估值倍数有所下降，它仍然比标普500指数录得更强劲的回报。
But, if we see the S&P 500 start to revert back to its historic market averages closer to around 23 times earnings. While SCHD already remains very close to its historic market average, we can see all of a sudden SCHD is beating the S&P 500 by quite a few percentage points. Even if we see some decline in SCHD's valuation multiple, it still posts stronger returns than the S&P 500.
请记住，SCHD不仅仅是一篮子股票，它是一种方法论。因此，每年它都会根据指示的年股息收益率选出前50只股票，这通常也意味着它会同时选出市盈率较低的股票。这就是为什么我们很少看到SCHD的市盈率大幅下降。
And keep in mind, SCHD isn't [14:56] just a basket of stocks, it's a [14:57] methodology. So, every single year, it's [15:00] selecting the top 50 stocks by indicated [15:02] annual dividend yield, which also, for [15:04] the most part, will simultaneously mean [15:06] it's selecting stocks with lower PE [15:09] multiples. This is why we rarely see a [15:11] large drop in the PE multiple for SCHD.
所以，这是我们问题的简短答案。SCHD绝对有能力在未来一年继续跑赢，绝对有能力在2026年继续跑赢，并且可能在未来几年内继续跑赢。但更完整的答案是，这显然取决于我们所处的市场环境。
So, here's the short answer to our question. SCHD absolutely has the ability to continue to outperform over the next year, absolutely has the ability to continue to outperform in 2026, and potentially over the next couple of years. But, the more complete answer is it obviously depends on the market environment that we're operating in.
但现实是，SCHD目前是对冲市场的绝佳工具。如果你看它们自成立以来的总回报，你会发现市场下跌的年份对SCHD来说非常少。
But, the reality is SCHD is an incredible hedge against the market right now. If you look at their total return since inception, you can see the down years for the market are very little for SCHD.
例如，在2022年，标普500指数下跌了约18%。SCHD仅下跌了约3.2%。这正如Hartford Funds的研究早前向我们展示的那样。它在熊市期间表现显著跑赢。
For example, in 2022, the S&P 500 was down by about 18%. SCHD only dropped by about 3.2. It's exactly like Hartford Funds research showed us earlier. It outperformed significantly during bear markets.
所以，现实是，如果你想在整个市场周期中感到安心，无论我们处于牛市还是熊市，像SCHD这样的股息增长策略已经录得了惊人的长期总回报。
So, the reality is if you want to feel comfortable over full market cycles, when we're in bull markets and bear markets, a dividend growth strategy like SCHD has posted phenomenal long-term total returns.
但SCHD的美妙之处在于，无论市场表现如何，我们继续看到这些股息支付越来越高。因此，对于希望有一天靠股息生活的人来说，这是一个值得考虑的绝佳基金。它完全消除了回报的序列风险，这正是许多投资者在互联网泡沫期间以及整个2000年代无法退休的确切原因。
But, the beauty of SCHD is regardless of market performance, we continue to see those dividend payments climb higher and higher. So, for someone looking to one day live off dividends, it's a phenomenal fund to consider. It completely alleviates sequence risk of returns, which is the exact reason a lot of investors weren't able to retire during the dot-com bubble and really for the entirety of the 2000s.
再次强调，为了完全透明，SCHD是我个人投资组合中的一项持仓。
So again, for complete transparency, SCHD is a holding in my personal portfolio,
这个频道对 $SCHD 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。