说话者通过每月定投持有SCHD;其论点在于,其不断增长的收入(约3.13%的收益率,11%的增长)和相对于科技股更低的估值,为长期资本保值和现金生成提供了合适的风险调整后回报。
逐段跳播
所以今天我将向你展示SCHD到底是什么,它持有什么,以及为什么它现在正在击败一切,它是否会继续,以及我个人每个月都在做什么。所以情况是这样的。SCHD今年仅价格就上涨了超过26%。
但如果你也再投资股息,总回报将超过30%。仅通过复利这些现金流就增加了近4%。现在,今年早些时候,他们从ETF中移除了22只股票,并引入了25只新股。这是30%的换手率。他们完全改变了这只基金的本质。这不是去年那只ETF了,而且它正在获得回报。
So today I'm going to show you exactly what SCD is, what it holds, and why it's beating everything right now, whether it's continue, and what I'm personally doing about it every single month. So here's what's going on. SCHD is up over 26% this year on price alone. But if you also reinvest the dividends, the total return jumps past 30%. Almost 4% extra just from compounding that cash flow. Now, earlier this year, they removed 22 stocks from the ETF and brought in 25 new ones. That is a 30% turnover. They completely changed the DNA of this fund. This is not the same ETF it was last year, and it's paying off.
所以,快速说一下,如果你不知道SCHD是什么,它是Schwab美国股息股票ETF。ETF只是一个股票篮子,你可以作为单一投资、单一代码购买。这只ETF持有约103家公司,总费用率为0.06%。
这意味着什么?这意味着你每投资10,000美元,每年只需支付6美元。
So, real quick, if you don't know what SCD is, it is the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF. An ETF is just a basket of stocks that you can buy as one single investment, one single ticker symbol. This ETF holds about 103 companies with a total expense ratio of 0.06%. So what does that mean? It means for every $10,000 you invest, you're only charged $6 per year.
现在,如果你有兴趣了解更多关于像我每月在SCHD中做的定投,我们有一份完全免费的PDF。现在,看看这些数字。SCHD今年的总回报率为30.48%。QQQ为16.41%。SPY为12.89%。
一只股息ETF的回报率是标普的两倍多,并且也几乎以两倍的幅度击败了纳斯达克。更疯狂的是,SCHD的股息在其价格回报之上增加了近4%。QQQ的股息远低于1%。所以,它不仅价格上获胜,当你加上它支付给你的现金时,它甚至进一步拉开差距。
Now, if you're interested in learning more about dollar cost averaging like I do every month in SCHD, we have an absolutely free PDF. Now, look at these numbers. SCHD's total return this year, 30.48%. 48%. QQQ 16.41%. SPY 12.89%. A dividend ETF is more than doubling the S&P's return and being the NASDAQ by also almost double. And here's what makes it even crazier. SCD dividends are adding almost 4% on top of its price return. QQQ's dividend far below 1%. So, not only is it winning on price, it's pulling away even further when you cut the cash that it's paying you.
让我在图表上展示这实际上是什么样子。所以,各位,正如你所看到的,我在这里做的是调出了SCHD、标普500和QQQ。我完全消除了股息,这对SCHD来说是一个巨大的优势。它去掉了回报的一大块。
看看这个。这是年初至今。SCHD几乎达到28%,不包括股息。你把股息加进去,它接近30%。QQQ是16%,标普500是12%。
Let me show you what this actually looks like on a chart. So, guys, as you can see, what I did here was I pulled up SCD, the S&P 500, and QQQ. I eliminated the dividend completely, which is a huge advantage for SCHD. It gets rid of a big chunk of the returns. And look at this. This is year-to- date. SCHD is almost at 28% not including dividends. You add dividends in there, it's pretty close to 30%. QQQ is at 16% and the S&P 500 is at 12%.
现在你已经看到了数字。SCHD表现非常出色。但问题是为什么?为什么一只股息ETF会跑赢地球上最大的科技基金?
So now you've seen the numbers. SCHD is crushing it. But the question is why? Why is a dividend ETF outperforming the biggest tech funds on the planet?
SCHD目前的远期市盈率在15.5到18之间。所以你在高位为明年每1美元的收益支付18美元。这是一个巨大的差距,各位。当股票变得如此昂贵时,最终市场会说:“我不会再支付那个价格了。”
现在,这似乎很难相信,因为每年市场都在继续支付。但这正是这里发生的事情。
SCHD is currently sitting at a forward PE of between 15 a.5 and 18. So you're paying $18 on the high side for every $1 of next year's earnings. That is a massive gap, guys. And when stocks get that expensive, eventually the market says, "I'm not going to pay that anymore." Now, it seems hard to believe that because every single year the market keeps paying. But that's exactly what's happened here.
而SCHD持有0%的那些拖累大盘的科技股。它对科技股降温完全免疫。当那些股票下跌或停滞时,SCHD的持仓却在奔跑,没有任何东西阻碍它们。
And SCHD holds 0% of those tech stocks weighing down the broader market. It was completely immune to the tech cool down. While those names were falling or stalling, at CHD holdings were running with nobody holding them back.
在2020年的崩盘中,SCHD下跌了33%。这几乎和标普500的跌幅一样多。所以,不要以为因为它支付股息就不会下跌。它会下跌,而且一定会。
During the 2020 crash, SCHD dropped 33%. That's almost as much as the S&P 500 did. So, don't think that just because it pays dividends that it can't go down. It can, and it will.
我认为现在基于普通公司和炒作之间的巨大估值差异,SCHD的跌幅总体上会比QQQ或SPY小得多。各位,它之所以能做到这一切,是因为该基金挑选股票的方式。它不是某个人凭喜好挑选。它运行在一个严格的四因素系统上:相对于债务的强劲现金流、高股本回报率、有意义的股息收益率,以及超过5年的持续股息增长。
如果你不达标,你就会被淘汰。这个系统不在乎炒作,不在乎动量,只在乎基本面。而在基本面可能真正重要的年份,这个系统正在获胜。
I think now based on our big difference in valuation between normal companies and the hype, I do think SCHD will fall a lot less than QQQ or SPY overall. Guys, the reason it can do all this is because of how the fund picks its stocks. It's not some guy to death picking his favorites. It runs on a strict four factor system. Strong cash flow compared to its debt, high return on equity, a meaningful dividend yield, and consistent dividend growth over 5 years. If you fail, you're out. The system doesn't care about hype. It doesn't care about momentum. It only cares about the fundamentals. And in a year where fundamentals could actually matter, that system is winning.
而且,各位,这不再是一个小众基金了。CHD拥有超过1120亿美元的资产。这意味着买卖价差小、交易量大,你可以随时买入或卖出,而不会支付过高的价格。这是一个合法的机构级基金,任何投资者都可以持有。
And this isn't some small niche fund anymore, guys. CHD has over $112 billion in assets. That means tight spreads, high volume, and you can buy or sell whenever you want without overpaying. This is a legit institutional-grade fund that any investor can own.
SCHD能否继续跑赢QQQ和标普500?
Can SCHD keep beating QQQ and the S&P 500?
SCHD必须面临这个问题。所以,每当资金从估值过高的科技股流出时,SCHD就在那里接住。我确实同意这一点。对我来说,这是投资中非常明显的一点。
SCHD has to have that problem. So, every time money flows out of overpriced tech, SCHD is sitting right there to catch it. I actually do agree with that. This is something that's to me very obvious about investing.
与此同时,SCHD持有的公司类型,如医疗保健、金融、必需消费品,已经从负盈利增长转为正9%。这个差距过去曾用来证明为科技股支付30倍市盈率是合理的,但这个差距正在迅速缩小。当盈利增长相当时,但你支付的是18倍远期市盈率而不是27倍,正如我之前所说,数学开始偏向更便宜的基金。
我同意其中的一些观点。但归根结底,15%仍然比9%的盈利增长好。如果你长期这样做,如果这种情况持续很长时间,它将足以证明估值差异的合理性。
Meanwhile, the types of companies that SCHD holds, healthcare, financials, consumer staples, have gone from negative earnings growth to positive 9%. That gap used to justify paying 30 times earnings for a tech stock, but that's shrinking fast. And when the earnings growth is comparable, but you're paying 18 times forward earnings instead of 27, as I had said earlier, the math starts favoring the cheaper fund. Elements of that I do agree with. But at the end of the day, 15% is still better than 9% earnings growth. And if you do that long enough, if that were to stay for a long period of time, it would more than justify that difference in valuation.
SCHD目前的收益率约为3.13%。各位,在最近的上涨之前,它几乎是4%。而且从历史上看,它的股息每年增长约11%。所以,你不仅今天得到回报,而且每年都会得到更多。这种不断增长的收入加上价格升值的组合,正是所谓的无聊基金在市场动荡时变成总回报机器的原因。
SCHD's yield right now is about 3.13%. And guys, it was almost 4% since before this recent runup. And historically, its dividend has grown about 11% a year. So, you're not just getting paid today, you're getting paid more every single year. That combination of rising income plus price appreciation is what turns a so-called boring fund into a total return machine when the market gets choppy.
这就是风险。当科技股最终站稳脚跟并再次飙升时,SCHD持有者可能会再次眼睁睁看着QQ Clue从他们身边飞过。这是一个真正的权衡。
And here's the risk. When tech eventually finds its footing and rips again, SCHD holders could be watching QQ Clue fly right past them once again. That's a real tradeoff.
这不是SCD第一次表现优异。它在2022年的科技股抛售中也表现出色,但随后科技股大幅反弹,CHD再次落后。我仍然不明白为什么30多岁、并非财务独立的人会持有SCHD。但也许人们就是喜欢每个月收到那张支票。
如果你把它放在IRA或401k中,它可以免税复利增长。
This is not the first time SCD had a great year. It outperformed during the 2022 tech sell-off as well, but then tech came beyond roaring back and CHD fell behind again. I still don't get why 30-some year old people who aren't independently wealthy would own SCHD. But maybe people just like getting that check every single month. And if you put it in an IRA or 401k, it can compound taxfree.
第三,税收问题。SCHD每季度支付股息。这听起来很棒,直到你意识到,如果你在罗斯IRA或401k等税收优惠账户之外持有该基金,你每年都要为这些股息缴税,无论你是否愿意。而且这是在公司已经为其盈利和现金流缴税之后。所以这是双重征税。
Number three, the tax problem. SCHD pays you dividends every quarter. That sounds great until you realize that if you hold this fund outside of a tax advantaged account like a Roth IRA or 401k, you're paying taxes on those dividends every single year whether you want to or not. And this is after the company already paid taxes on its earnings and cash flow. So it is double taxation.
在20或30年的时间里,除非你把它放在税收优惠账户中,否则CHD的税收拖累可能会侵蚀你相当大一部分回报。所以,你在哪里持有该基金很重要,而且它是否达到你的目标也很重要。
Over 20 or 30 years, that tax drag on CHD can eat it way at a meaningful chunk of your returns unless you have it in a tax advantage account. So where you hold this fund matters a lot and also if it hits your goals.
各位,把你的钱放在像CHD、SPY甚至一点QQQ这样的ETF中,这是明智的。
And look, guys, having your money in an ETF like CHD, SPY, or even a little QQQ, that's smart.
各位,正如我之前所说,我持有SCD。我相信它符合我的长期目标。我在财务上一直很幸运,以至于从股息中产生额外现金并获得一点资本回报对我来说非常重要。这就是它有效的原因。
Now guys, as I said earlier, I own SCD. I believe it fits for my long-term goals. I have been fortunate enough financially where generating extra cash from dividends and getting a little capital return is very important to me. That's why it works.
一天后他回来找我,他说:“为什么不选SCHD?”有趣的是,我当时正在批评互联网上那些说自己是股息投资者并购买SCD的人。我仍然坚持这一点,但它符合我的目标。他说:“保罗,你的目标是一点资本增值,但用股息来资助你的生活方式。
这就是它所做的。”我说:“完美。我们开始吧。”从那以后,我一直在定投。
Came back to me a day later, he goes, "Why not SCHD?" And the funny part was I was at the time I was criticizing people on the internet for saying that they were dividend investors and buying SCD. And I still stand by that, but it fit my goals. He's like, "Paul, your goal is a little bit of capital appreciation, but dividends to fund to to fund your lifestyle. That's what this does." And I was like, "Perfect. Let's do it." And I've been dollar cost averaging ever since.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $SCHD 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。