SMH 仍位于关键技术阻力（50 日移动均线）下方；当前价格走势支持对风险偏好型股票持看空/不那么看多的立场。
逐段跳播
接下来看SMH。现在，故事就在这里，各位。故事就在这里，正如我提醒你们的，我一直如此，我在这个节目上说过很多次，SMH是我可以就近期价格走势倾向看涨或看跌的地方。原因是，SMH包含大量半导体股票。
它们同时也是成长股。所以，当投资者推高这些成长股时，市场就是风险偏好模式，市场其余部分很可能也会跟随。我一直用我们的简单移动平均线来强调这一点，各位。那么，让我们看看这些简单移动平均线，也来说明我们就是无法重新站上那条50移动平均线。
那条50日移动平均线是我屏幕上的这条蓝线。黄色的是20，底部这条红色的是200移动平均线。所以，我们看到，即使有周五获得的这波拉升，价格走势基本上收在那条50日移动平均线处或其下方。
你甚至可以看到，我们在ETH上跌破了它，甚至在9日维持在它上方，但从未形成持续确认的走势，不仅站上这个平行通道、不仅站上这条下降趋势线，而且站上那条50移动平均线。所以到目前为止有三个阻力水平压制着SMH的价格，然后我们今天进一步下滑，请注意在这个平行通道的50%区域获得支撑。
现在，为了提醒任何人，或者向任何新观众说明这个平行通道来自哪里，各位，这是2025年4月的一个平行通道。如果我放大到10分钟图，看看今天那个反弹发生在哪里。就在平行通道的50%区域，正如我用标普500指数所说明的，SMH也在当天最后一根10分钟K线上遭到抛售。
但技术分析在图表上能起作用仍然令人难以置信。当你谈论一年半、一年零五个月之后，我们在这里、在这个平行通道的50%区域获得一次盘中反弹。这告诉你，各位，近期这就是支撑水平。今天这里大幅下跌。
如果我们明天看不到一点反弹，我会感到意外。然而，如果抛售压力继续把我们推到平行通道的下半部分50%，下一个支撑将来自你在图表上看到的这些低点枢轴，大约在525美元。再往下，我们说的就是平行通道的底部，就在图表上SMH的58美元处。
今天那里漂亮的下跌，让我对市场中的风险偏好股票、股票整体，就像科技板块整体一样，不那么看涨。
Next up into the SMH. Now, here's where the story is, guys. And here's where the story, as I remind you, I always, and I've said this many times on this show, this SMH is where I can lean either bullish or bearish on the near-term price action.
And the reason being, SMH contains a lot of semiconductor stocks. They also are growth stocks. So, when investors are pushing these growth stocks up, it's risk on in the marketplace and likely the rest of the market will follow suit.
And I've really been highlighting this with our simple moving averages, guys. So, let's look at these simple moving averages to also illustrate how we're just not able to get back above that 50 moving average.
That 50 daily moving average is this blue line on my screen. The yellow is the 20 and this red down here at the bottom is the 200 moving average. So, we see here even with the pop that we received Friday, price action basically closed right at or underneath that 50-day moving average.
You can even see too we breached it here on the ETH and even maintained above it on the 9th but never put in a continuing confirmation move above not only this parallel not only this declining trend line but then that 50 moving averages.
So we had three resistance levels so far holding SMH down on price and then we slid even further down today catching support mind you at the 50% area of this parallel channel. Now, to remind anybody or to illustrate to any new viewers where this parallel channel comes from, guys, this is a parallel channel back in April of 2025.
And if I zoom in into the 10-minute chart, look at where that bounce occurred today. Right at the 50% area of the parallel, as I illustrated with the S&P 500, the SMH also sold off the last 10-minute candle of the day.
But still incredible how technical analysis can work on the chart. When you're talking about a year and a half, a year and 5 months later down the road, we get an in intraday bounce right here on this 50% area of the parallel.
That tells you near-term guys, that is the level of support. Big fall down here today. I would be surprised um if we don't see a little bit of a bounce up tomorrow. However, if the selling pressure continues pushing us down to the lower 50% of the parallel channel, the next support will come at these low pivots that you see here on the chart, right around $525.
Beyond that, we're talking the bottom of the parallel, right at $58 on the chart there for SMH. Beautiful decline there today, keeping me less bullish in the market for risk on uh stocks, equities, much like the tech sector in general.
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 9 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。