SMH 突破下行趋势线并收于 50 日均线上方，对科技板块构成看涨信号。
逐段跳播
现在，可能给标普500指数中的Q们更多上涨空间的是SMH这里正在发生的情况。就像在指数上一样，各位，看看这个跳空高开突破阻力位。这个阻力位在周五还在起作用。这是旧平行通道的顶部，而我们直接跳空高开突破了它。
相反，我们实际上是下跌并在今早于该通道顶部获得支撑，然后一路反弹上涨，突破了8月17日的这个缺口回补位。现在，这里一切变得更有意思了。其实，在我打开那个之前，让我先强调一下你们看到的这条从6月22日SMH历史高点画出的下降趋势线。
注意当我画这条线时，我是画到下一个枢轴点的。注意当价格再次上来时，它试图突破，紧接着的下一次尝试没有收在上方，我们实际上突破了。然后第二天，我们没能成功推高、获得延伸并远离那条下降趋势线。
于是，价格就一路又跌了回去。又是一天上涨，然后我们连续三天下跌。现在我们连续三天在图表上向上推进。这是自历史高点以来第一次出现这种情况。所以就在这里，这是一个重大的性质变化。我们现在开始确认突破这条下降趋势线。
然后当我切换到简单移动平均线时，各位，蓝色的是50日移动平均线。这也是我们第一次连续两根日线蜡烛向上推进并收在那条50日简单移动平均线上方。各位，这样做的效果是，它为许多其他机构打开了买入开关，其中很多机构在价格走势能够真正站上50日移动平均线之前，会避免买入任何股票或指数。
现在，还需要几个动作才能让更多机构加入进来，那就是这条黄色的20日移动平均线，目前位于55,960美元。如果它能够升到50日线上方，那就会启动一轮更大的上涨，推动SMH进一步走高。
各位，正如你们可能记得的，我说过SMH是我的领先指标。所以，现在，我得到了一个积极信号，告诉我我们手上有一个突破。现在我们关注明天从这个上升平行通道的突破。收出一根高于今天的日线收盘价就能实现这一点，下一个阻力位从那个点是60758。
注意任何回撤到平行通道顶部的情况。那可能是你继续这轮上涨的买入机会。但要注意这些移动平均线以及我刚刚在这张图上为你讲解的细节，以确保你在买入SMH时我们仍处于看涨动能之中。
Now, what could give the Q's in the S SNP 500 more room to run is what's occurring here on the SMH. Just like on the cues, guys, look at this gap up over resistance. Resistance that on Friday was in play.
The top of this old parallel channel and we just gapped up over it. Instead, we actually sold down and caught support on the top of it this morning and then rallied all the way up, pushing through this gap fill from August 17th.
Now, here's where everything gets a little bit more interesting. Actually, before I flip that on, let me highlight the fact of this declining trend line right here that you see from the all-time highs on the SMH back on June 22nd.
Notice how when I drew this, I drew it down to the next pivot. Notice how when price came up again, it attempted to go through, did not close above on the very next attempt, we actually got through.
And then the following day, we didn't succeed in pushing higher, getting extension and away from that declining trend line. So, in turn, price just found its way going right back down. another one day up and then we had three days down.
Now we have three days in consecutive pushing order upward on the chart. This is the first time this has happened since the all-time highs. So right here, this is a big change in character.
We're now starting to confirm a breakout from this declining trend line. Then when I flip over the simple moving averages, guys, the blue is the 50-day moving average. This is the first time as well that we've gotten now two daily candles pushing up consecutively and closing above that 50 simple moving average.
Now guys, what this does is it turns on the buy switch for a lot of other institutions, a lot of which refrain from buying any sort of stock or index until price action can get properly above the 50-day moving average.
Now, there's a couple more moves that are required for more institutions to hop on board, and that would be this yellow 20 moving average that's currently sitting at $55,960. If that were to get above the 50, and then that kickstarts even a bigger rally and push higher up on the SMH.
Now, the SMH is, as you may recall, I've said this is my leading indicator. So, right now, I've got a positive signal telling me that we have a breakout on our hands. Now we watching for tomorrow on the breakout from this inclining parallel channel.
Putting in a daily close higher than today would accomplish that next resistance 60758 from that point. Watch for any sort of uh retraces to the top of the parallel. That could be your buying opportunity to continue with this rally.
But be mindful of these moving averages and the details that I just went over for you on this chart to ensure we remain in bullish uh momentum when you're buying the SMH.
观察点
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 11 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。